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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

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A winter storm warning was just issued for the Michigan side of the lake.

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches.

* WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.
Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-
Ionia-

* WHEN…Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Inch per hour snowfall rates are possible
for a time tonight.

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

My forecast is now calling for 3-6" or more starting late PM and ending early Sunday afternoon. This from my local forecaster just in. He added the possibility of possibly getting more than 6". Roughly from M-59 North. I guess he is seeing the south trend and going also w/ the American models.

 

This looks pretty darn good fwiw. I may still get hosed but we finally get a system with favorable timing at night. That can't hurt.

0600z.gif.50eab7c038ad8c541fa5a681f6028143.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Heavy stuff just started here.  Looks to move out after an hour or so.  Hopefully it backfills later this evening and rips throughout the early overnight.   Don’t think we get to the top end of 8 inches though.   That would be north of here.  Definitely a win for the NAM at least in Michigan.  

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Interesting afternoon. We drove to Kearney at 1 pm for a basketball tournament. Low to 0 visibility at times on Highway 183 north between here and I80 in falling and blowing snow. Saw a 5 vehicle accident right after it had occurred on I80. Got to Kearney for the game. Left there at 4:30 and Just got home. Harrowing. Blowing and falling snow with very low to 0 visibility in places and other places 100% ice/snow packed. Now the snow is really coming down at 10 degrees. There are several foot drifts across streets on the edge of town as the wind is blowing over 40 mph. 

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24 minutes ago, macminey2 said:

This is turning out to be quite the after party.

Its still snowing pretty heavily. Big flakes. I assume by radar trends it'll be dwindling soon. Probably gave me another 1+. I'll be interested to see what the official will be in Waterloo.

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Measured 2.8" and cleared the deck for the overnight snowfall...4.8" snow depth...hoping to get at least a couple more inches by tomorrow morning...the snow quality is very fluffy and the flakes are still quite large. The dang dry slot may shut down the party for a bit.  The snow totals up in SE WI must be getting up near 6" by now.  It's been solidly in the heavier bands all day long.

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The models unanimously predicted a tail of snow popping back through Cedar Rapids this evening, dropping another inch, but it totally failed to materialize.  My total is going to be 2.0".  This stinker was a huge disappointment.  The Canadian and Euro were awful, way too far south. 🤢

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I must be in the bull's eye because I have over 8 inches of snow on my deck. It's been so long, we haven't really had a good snow this year and last year everything either went south to Chicago or north of me. It's really nice powdery stuff. I didn't go to the hill because it's usually crazy on a weekend but I really should have gone. I'm so used to them being completely wrong about the snow I figured they were calling for 4 inches and it'd be more like 2-4. Powdery stuff is going to stay around for the whole week, I'm really grateful to finally get some snow like this. Last year all I did with my snowmobile was drive it around the lake a few times just to burn off the gas so it didn't go bad over summer.

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3 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I must be in the bull's eye because I have over 8 inches of snow on my deck. It's been so long, we haven't really had a good snow this year and last year everything either went south to Chicago or north of me. It's really nice powdery stuff. I didn't go to the hill because it's usually crazy on a weekend but I really should have gone. I'm so used to them being completely wrong about the snow I figured they were calling for 4 inches and it'd be more like 2-4. Powdery stuff is going to stay around for the whole week, I'm really grateful to finally get some snow like this. Last year all I did with my snowmobile was drive it around the lake a few times just to burn off the gas so it didn't go bad over summer.

What part of SE WI?  Close to MKE or Kenosha?

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8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The models unanimously predicted a tail of snow popping back through Cedar Rapids this evening, dropping another inch, but it totally failed to materialize.  My total is going to be 2.0".  This stinker was a huge disappointment.  The Canadian and Euro were awful, way too far south. 🤢

I looked over all models and forecast  meticulously  friday evening.   Seemed that our best shot here at  plowable snow was going to be Saturday  evening.  But the reality  was the only snow fell ahead of the arctic  front on Saturday am. And now Im dealing  with freezing  drizzle  not in anyones forecast  until  late yesterday. 

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Picked up an additional 1.1" from the last time I cleared the deck and that brings my storm total to 3.9".  I see ORD only picked up 2.2".  That was a nasty cut off from N/S across the CWA.  MDW only picked up 0.8" as the northern burbs cashed in nicely with widespread 4-5"+ reports (updated reports coming this morning).  Boy, you have to give kuddos to the NAM bc it was the ONLY short range model that was steadfast on suggesting a ribbon of heavier snows across S WI.  Once that 1"+/hr meso scale band developed last night, it ripped for hours into the overnight.  I'm curious to see if Kenosha topped out over a Foot.  The spotter reports haven't been updated yet and I see a few 8" reports from last night.

The warm nose came up through my area and that was not forecast by the Euro/GFS/Canadian but the NAM/HRRR nailed it.  The mix happened after about 9:00pm as I heard sleet pellets hitting my sky light.  The top layer of my snow has a bit of a crust on it.   All in all, not a bad storm for MBY as I'm sure many south of ORD are not quite happy.  Congrats to those in S Wisco and parts of N IA that also cashed in.  I'm sure @westMJim @Stacshscored nicely as well.

 

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Good morning! For the 3rd time this winter season there is over 10” of snow on the ground here in MBY. The here in my yard 8” of new snow fell yesterday and overnight. I now have 11” on the ground here. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 31/23 there was 0.34” of precipitation that fell and before midnight there was 4” of snow fall. (here in my yard I had 5” before midnight)  there was once again no sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 31/17 the record high of 59 was set in 1914 and the record low of -16 was set in 1966 and for today the record snowfall amount is 7.5” in 1909. The snow has ended here in Walker and the current temperature here is 24. The next week look to be colder than we have been since December but the month of January 2023 will still end up well above average. And here in Grand Rapids we now have gone over the 80” mark for snow fall for this winter season.

 

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@Tom As I stated I recorded 8" here in my yard and now have a total of 11" on the ground. It is odd that while January will end up being one of the warmest on record and most of the month did not have any snow on the ground but official as of midnight GR has had 78.5" of snow this winter season and should go over 80" with the overnight snow fall.

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7 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Lake Geneva area. Not sure if it's the most accurate measurement from this storm but there's a lot on my deck.

I Love Lake Geneva!  We used to take our boat up there every summer on the weekends and holidays.  Those were fun childhood memories.  My God Father also had a hotel up there and we would spend quality time together.  He then sold that and bought a house with a big lot and had a huge greenhouse and outdoor garden with all sorts of fresh vegetables and fruits that he grew.  Gosh, I miss those days!

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2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

@Tom As I stated I recorded 8" here in my yard and now have a total of 11" on the ground. It is odd that while January will end up being one of the warmest on record and most of the month did not have any snow on the ground but official as of midnight GR has had 78.5" of snow this winter season and should go over 80" with the overnight snow fall.

Wow, that is an impressive stat and quite odd for what has been a warm winter overall.  Congrats!

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

@Tom As I stated I recorded 8" here in my yard and now have a total of 11" on the ground. It is odd that while January will end up being one of the warmest on record and most of the month did not have any snow on the ground but official as of midnight GR has had 78.5" of snow this winter season and should go over 80" with the overnight snow fall.

Very odd winter here in W MI for sure. We have had about 85 inches at my house but have had only 18 days with snow on the ground. I lost 22 inches of snow on the ground in 3 days. The snow we have now will stay around for about 2 weeks this time...

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Just finished shoveling and it’s rather brisk and there’s a bit of a bite to the wind.  I’m def not used to this cold after such a warm month.  Needless to say, it looks wonderful out there and should stick around for a while to enjoy.  
 

On my deck, I have a 5.5” snow depth but on the grass it’s about 5” OTG.

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Most of the snow rode one county North kind of amazing as the band west was further south than us.  Once it went over our area it would fizzle out so we had this constant mini dry slot set up. Never went above freezing in our area. Frustrating but yet interesting at the same time.  This morning it looks like we got a little snow judging by the sidewalks getting covered.  

AFD: DTW

Thus far, most of metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south have been
void of precip. In fact some of this dry air has disrupted the
intensity of snow across the north at times. A short wave impulse
and additional lower tropospheric ascent will track across the
entire forecast area this morning. This and some slight steepening
of the mid level lapse rates will support showery precip across the
south this morning. The elevated warm layer is expected to advance
northward into Ann Arbor and Detroit this morning. The associated
sfc low which looks to now track right across Detroit this morning
will attempt to drive the sfc warm layer up to the I-94 corridor.
Thus a mix of rain showers and freezing rain showers look likely.
The brevity of the showers and with temps likely hovering around or
just above freezing will limit icing potential.
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