1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Izzi touches on bit on the lake enhancement scenario...

With a NE wind your area has a good chance of lake enhancement 

[westMJim]

The temperatures have fallen here in the last hour and looking out the window the wind has also picked up as well. At this time there is a little bit of red/pink to the sky looking to the west. That is a little odd as the sky to the east is clear but there are clouds to the west and they (the clouds) are red. 

[Up_north_MI]

3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The temperatures have fallen here in the last hour and looking out the window the wind has also picked up as well. At this time there is a little bit of red/pink to the sky looking to the west. That is a little odd as the sky to the east is clear but there are clouds to the west and they (the clouds) are red. 

I always like your detailed updates. Our son goes to Grand Valley University and it’s nice knowing what kind of weather he’s dealing with over there.

[Hawkeye]

12z HRRR... 

[Stacsh]

Models have consistently showed my area with 6+ between the next two storms.  This set up could certainly over-perform as well.  

[bud2380]

Well models keep trending further and further north. Even the further south FV3 just barely keeps Cedar Rapids in the heavier bands now. Highway 20 in Iowa is where you want to be. 

[Tom]

Either the NAM and CAM's score a massive win..or...the GEFS/GEPS/UKIE fail bigly inside 48 hours...

[james1976]

Had an overnight refresher up here in MN. Eyeballing at least an inch....maybe 2? Down in IA my place is in a WWA tomorrow for 3-5"

[bud2380]

18 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Had an overnight refresher up here in MN. Eyeballing at least an inch....maybe 2? Down in IA my place is in a WWA tomorrow for 3-5"

Yeah I drove right through all that last night on my way up to Menahga MN. It really came down for a while. Roads were nearly 100% snow covered. Couldn’t even see the lines at times. Made for an interesting drive. Looks like they got about 1.5” here in Menahga. 

[hlcater]

All the NAM derivatives are crazy north. Just don’t think this pans out well here but we’ll see I guess

[tStacsh]

Models are all over the place still.  So I'm going with the globals at this point.  Euro and GFS are very similar.   Canadian is south.  Nam is way too far north.  

[CentralNebWeather]

I think the Canadian will be pretty close to what pans out in my area.  It has stayed very steady with these amounts.  Still believe in the Arctic air that a band or two could set up and drop higher amounts of snow over a small area, but those are nowcast and radar.

[bud2380]

Pray for the Canadian. 

[Bellona]

The NAM has me concerned but otherwise I feel pretty good for 4-6 around Waterloo and along Highway 20. 

[westMJim]

No snow falling here, in fact there is some filtered sunshine at this time. There is also some wind. The temperature is 27. As for the snow today and tomorrow? Well we shall see. For today I do not expect much and for tomorrow? As I said we shall see.  

[jaster220]

CAM's slow to pick-up on the density of incoming cold (yeah, actual real-deal winter cold temps-go figure)??

[jaster220]

Congrats @Tom (and other ORD Peeps ofc) for reeling this one in:

 

[Hawkeye]

Man, there's still a wide range of solutions from the models today.  Most likely, the far north (HRRR) and far south (GDPS) are wrong and it will end up in the middle.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have made it up to 37 so far.  Some melting going on, but the glacier is still intact with the massive piles and drifts looking good. Hoping for an 1-2" over the next few days, but most forecasts are very pessimistic on accumulations in our area.  

[bud2380]

Euro up to 4.7” for CR. Not bad. It’s riding a fine line though. But if it can shift 10-15 miles south even total would jump even more. 

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR south a bit, still well north of the globals.

[tStacsh]

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

[CentralNebWeather]

18z RGEM. Maybe I can get a couple inches. 

[Ottawa CO, MI]

29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

They seem confused...

[Hawkeye]

18z GFS is a tick north, chops a bit off the hw30 corridor.

 

 

[BMT]

Another storm, model consensus a couple days out that look favorable for mby, another rug pull, another dusting to an inch.  bring on spring

[Tom]

The high rez IBM GRAF shows 4.9” for ORD, 6-9” across the northern counties of IL into S WI.  Southern burbs 1-2”.  Wild cut-off.

[hlcater]

Fast asleep rn

[Stacsh]

Looking good atm.  I’m dead center.  What could go wrong?   Great ratios too.  
 

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have made it up to 37 so far.  Some melting going on, but the glacier is still intact with the massive piles and drifts looking good. Hoping for an 1-2" over the next few days, but most forecasts are very pessimistic on accumulations in our area.  

“Expect nothing… get nothing” - that’s my new motto with Winter storms going forward in Eastern Nebraska.

Might be a good idea for a signature for my profile haha!

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Looking good atm.  I’m dead center.  What could go wrong?   Great ratios too.  
 

That looks like almost every snow in 2021. Things looked good a day ago here, but now very sketchy whether we can get much if any snow. Funny how the high is forecasted to be the exact same 33F we had for Wednesday's storm. 

[Grizzcoat]

Just grasping at anything at this point and I realize its rather fruitless-- BUT-- the latest SREF did move rather far S for this close to the event---doubling the QPF at DSM and most other locations along I-80. Old vs. new run... Yeah I know.... :O)

 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro also added a nearly a full tenth of QPF-- from .18" at 12Z to .27" at 18Z----  for DSM.

Latest HRRR is also heading S.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro-- 12Z vs 18Z-

[bud2380]

Wow. Huge improvement on the 18z euro. 

[Hawkeye]

As models went north, they got wetter.  As they are coming south, they're weaker.  I guess that makes sense.  I'll gladly take a bit weaker if I can get into the better snow band.

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR

[Grizzcoat]

NAM is S also. DSM area gained another tenth Qpf-- Granted this was from .01 to .02" to .12" or so-- but still. This trend is nice and maybe can continue throughout the event.

[BMT]

Lol.  Comical 

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM & 3kNAM

[Hawkeye]

The 00z FV3 has retreated north on the southern edge.

[Hawkeye]

00z RDPS... a hair south

[Grizzcoat]

Getting the globals to come S-- but now Cam's are going back north. This has been more so than normal; a very odd storm to prog.

[Stacsh]

Every model gives me 6 inches of snow or more at 10-1.   Winter weather advisory for 4-7 inches of snow.  

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

[Grizzcoat]

CMC just appears too robust in it's QPF-- has .08" for  KDSM  by 6am -- that is highly suspect. But it has been highly consistent and is now showing decent snows late SAT PM.  Seems other guidance is starting to latch on to the idea of this been a longer duration event than first thought.

[jaster220]

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

For here, it's the opposite in that it shows much more on the southern edge. I think every other model showing only +/-2"

[Hawkeye]

00z UK... a bit south, but on the weak end of the model range.  It's too bad the real juice in far northeast Nebraska couldn't continue across Iowa.

[james1976]

I'd love to be at my IA home tomorrow but can't win em all. Good luck to everyone in the path. I'll shovel it next week! Haha

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro