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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

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The temperatures have fallen here in the last hour and looking out the window the wind has also picked up as well. At this time there is a little bit of red/pink to the sky looking to the west. That is a little odd as the sky to the east is clear but there are clouds to the west and they (the clouds) are red. 

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3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The temperatures have fallen here in the last hour and looking out the window the wind has also picked up as well. At this time there is a little bit of red/pink to the sky looking to the west. That is a little odd as the sky to the east is clear but there are clouds to the west and they (the clouds) are red. 

I always like your detailed updates. Our son goes to Grand Valley University and it’s nice knowing what kind of weather he’s dealing with over there.

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18 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Had an overnight refresher up here in MN. Eyeballing at least an inch....maybe 2? Down in IA my place is in a WWA tomorrow for 3-5"

Yeah I drove right through all that last night on my way up to Menahga MN. It really came down for a while. Roads were nearly 100% snow covered. Couldn’t even see the lines at times. Made for an interesting drive. Looks like they got about 1.5” here in Menahga. 

Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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No snow falling here, in fact there is some filtered sunshine at this time. There is also some wind. The temperature is 27. As for the snow today and tomorrow? Well we shall see. For today I do not expect much and for tomorrow? As I said we shall see.  

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CAM's slow to pick-up on the density of incoming cold (yeah, actual real-deal winter cold temps-go figure)??

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Congrats @Tom (and other ORD Peeps ofc) for reeling this one in:

 

23-01-27 4am noaad2.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man, there's still a wide range of solutions from the models today.  Most likely, the far north (HRRR) and far south (GDPS) are wrong and it will end up in the middle.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z HRRR south a bit, still well north of the globals.

image.thumb.png.c7f7eb428d6f073adf4b7873e09d4f67.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

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29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

They seem confused...

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18z GFS is a tick north, chops a bit off the hw30 corridor.

 

 

season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have made it up to 37 so far.  Some melting going on, but the glacier is still intact with the massive piles and drifts looking good. Hoping for an 1-2" over the next few days, but most forecasts are very pessimistic on accumulations in our area.  

“Expect nothing… get nothing” - that’s my new motto with Winter storms going forward in Eastern Nebraska.

Might be a good idea for a signature for my profile haha!

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27 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Looking good atm.  I’m dead center.  What could go wrong?   Great ratios too.  
 

86BBBD20-D981-4F7A-BE86-E4D96944FB14.thumb.jpeg.eedd26c580229b152cb0cffcd9a353d9.jpeg

That looks like almost every snow in 2021. Things looked good a day ago here, but now very sketchy whether we can get much if any snow. Funny how the high is forecasted to be the exact same 33F we had for Wednesday's storm. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just grasping at anything at this point and I realize its rather fruitless-- BUT-- the latest SREF did move rather far S for this close to the event---doubling the QPF at DSM and most other locations along I-80. Old vs. new run... Yeah I know.... :O) qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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18Z Euro also added a nearly a full tenth of QPF-- from .18" at 12Z to .27" at 18Z----  for DSM.

Latest HRRR is also heading S.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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As models went north, they got wetter.  As they are coming south, they're weaker.  I guess that makes sense.  I'll gladly take a bit weaker if I can get into the better snow band.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NAM is S also. DSM area gained another tenth Qpf-- Granted this was from .01 to .02" to .12" or so-- but still. This trend is nice and maybe can continue throughout the event.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The 00z FV3 has retreated north on the southern edge.

image.thumb.png.9b06d4244a9aaee1652cebd2dd16fede.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Getting the globals to come S-- but now Cam's are going back north. This has been more so than normal; a very odd storm to prog.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

image.thumb.png.ea885039b8b5731fd1abe5fe1b4b75bf.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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CMC just appears too robust in it's QPF-- has .08" for  KDSM  by 6am -- that is highly suspect. But it has been highly consistent and is now showing decent snows late SAT PM.  Seems other guidance is starting to latch on to the idea of this been a longer duration event than first thought. snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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53 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

image.thumb.png.ea885039b8b5731fd1abe5fe1b4b75bf.png

For here, it's the opposite in that it shows much more on the southern edge. I think every other model showing only +/-2"

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z UK... a bit south, but on the weak end of the model range.  It's too bad the real juice in far northeast Nebraska couldn't continue across Iowa.

image.thumb.png.6da7e417d29c80ff9945812a066ad16b.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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