1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL

[Hawkeye]

Kudos to the Euro for being extremely consistent.  It's not wavering north and south like other models.  I still don't like being near the south edge.  Sioux Falls to Waterloo to Dubuque looks like the best corridor.

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z vs 00z Euro totals for both waves. Unsurprisingly, only minor differences. 

Doesn't want to develop the secondary wave south across Nebraska as other models do.  Might be a nowcast, watch the radar on Saturday into Sunday, to see if it might occur.  Who knows at this point.

[MIKEKC]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS.  There is that 2nd wave showing up over my area of Central Nebraska.  Hopefully that can come to fruition, and possibly strengthen if some banding can occur.

That GFS is trying to throw Clinton and me a little snow Saturday night with the strong push of cold air... the night before the Big Chiefs Victory! Very cold at the game it appears, maybe 12-14 degrees at game time.

[Tom]

12z Euro...there is a weak disturbance riding up the boundary on Mon that needs to be monitored for additional lighter snows...

 

 

 

[james1976]

Highway 20 special in the making right there

[Hawkeye]

The 06z NAM was way north, up in far northern Iowa.  The 12z came back south a bit and now the 18z has come farther south... now very similar to the consistent Euro.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z RDPS has come south as well.

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 18z RDPS has come south as well.

Not sure if the NAM will verify for you but it's 2 for 2 on the season for me.

[Hawkeye]

Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa.

[bud2380]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa.

This really isn't the best range for the HRRR (frankly I'm not sure any range is).  It tends to swing and miss a lot outside of 24 hours.  I still think the Euro is probably pretty close to right.  

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

This mornings HRW-

[Hawkeye]

50 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Anything less than 3" would be a disappointment.  I'd really like 4".

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Accu-Model (fwiw-- did pretty good for the last event around here)

[Clinton]

On 12/8 and 12/9 or 50 days ago we had this.  It will probably be a little further south this time but the northern solutions are probably going to be close.  The artic front could shove it further south, should be fun to watch it unfold.

 

[jcwxguy]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This mornings HRW-

Usually has a southern bias, especially after hour 24, although I would love for that to verify 

[bud2380]

I swear the Euro hasn’t wobbled more than 5 miles north or south in the last 8 runs. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro did tick north this run, not what I want to see.

[hlcater]

HRRR way up in N IA.

[Hawkeye]

12 minutes ago, hlcater said:

HRRR way up in N IA.

Yep, 18z went north, 00z even farther north.  Dang... the 12z model runs had me feeling better again, then they start drifting back north.

[hlcater]

NAM going north

 

Way north

[bud2380]

NAM is way north 

[Hawkeye]

9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

NAM going north

 

Way north

What the f is up with these dang models?  They come south this morning for some reason, then jump right back to f'ing northern Iowa again this evening.  Seriously, why didn't they just stay north in the first place?  It's stupid. 

[bud2380]

FV3 is way south of the NAM. 

[hlcater]

Initial call for CR: 2”.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z 3kNAM had the center of the heavy band right down hw30, through Ames and Cedar Rapids.  The 00z run has NOTHING down hw30.  How the heck can any model be that different, from one run to the next, for a pretty simple overrunning event like this?

[bud2380]

I feel like when the NAM is north, all is right in the world. I’m not even remotely concerned with the nam at this point. This is what it does. It’s just not a trustworthy model at all. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Got a fairly heavy line of snow moving through Central Nebraska. I’m now going to get snow for a couple of hours. This was not predicted in this area. 

[bud2380]

FV3

[Bellona]

I prefer the NAM in severe weather mode VS. Winter weather mode. It jumps around a lot. Just my 2 cents.

[bud2380]

Regional Canadian further south than the NAMs. 

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'd take the consistency of the Euro over just about anything else. While it can still be subject to last minute shifts like every other model, when it's consistent like this it's not often that it's wrong, from my experience. 

The 00z 3km NAM is actually not too far off from the 18z Euro now. I wouldn't be surprised to see other 00z runs settle somewhere around there too.

The NAM showing the heaviest totals near your back yard and NW Iowa seems like a good bet to me.  And the NAM has been really good as of late.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS--- 6" difference t between DSM and Lames--

[Grizzcoat]

CMC looks very similar to GFS-

[Grizzcoat]

ukie-

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

ukie-

The UK has a 6-hour period where the snowfall doesn't show, which is why northeast Iowa is so dry.

[Hawkeye]

03z RAP... even farther north.  I have to think this may be too far north.  Heck, the GFS has several inches across the entire Chicago area while the RAP has zero.

[Grizzcoat]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK has a 6-hour period where the snowfall doesn't show, which is why northeast Iowa is so dry.

I see that -- odd. add about .5 to 1.5" to those totals from C.IA on E if you use the 12Z

[hlcater]

Getting close on being time to punt for those south of 20. With the trends tonight its looking like this might be ANOTHER 1" snow.... yay.

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Getting close on being time to punt for those south of 20. With the trends tonight its looking like this might be ANOTHER 1" snow.... yay.

Assuming we get a bit Friday and again Saturday, I may end up with six consecutive 0.5-1.3" snows.  Unfortunately, the fact is our snow climate sucks.  It's a nickel/dimer climate and it always will be.  Ten variables have to align perfectly just to get 6".

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Assuming we get a bit Friday and again Saturday, I may end up with six consecutive 0.5-1.3" snows.  Unfortunately, the fact is our snow climate sucks.  It's a nickel/dimer climate and it always will be.  Ten variables have to align perfectly just to get 6".

I've got exactly 1 event down over 3" so far this year. Pathetic.

[Tom]

This is the type of system where we should really pay attn to the ensembles instead of each operational run.  There is stark consensus between the GEFS/GEPS...

0z GEPS...

 

 

0z GEFS...

 

0z GEPS...

[Tom]

0z GEFS...I'm also seeing more members suggesting another weaker wave on Mon that could add another 1-2" in spots...

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...hmm, surprised it trended north tonight...

 

 

[Tom]

06z GFS...

[Tom]

06z RDPS...I remember the Canadian model was one of the best to use tracking clipper systems during the '13-'14 season among others.  Some of the models are suggesting the lake get involved depending on the track of the wave, NE IL may score a few inches if things line up right.

[Tom]

LOT has some interesting wording suggesting convection within the meso bands that will develop...they are also suggesting snow ratios to be 12:-14:1...

There will be several sheared mid-level short-wave impulses
interacting with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped
across the area in a zone ranging between roughly I-80 on the
north end of model guidance and US-24 on the south end of model
guidance during the day on Saturday. The lower and mid-level wind
response to these disturbances acting upon a tight baroclinic
zone (thermal gradient) will help induce a frontogenetic
circulation and likely a narrow (~2-4 county wide) snow band
producing moderate to heavy snow. Finally, upper level jet
dynamics are also expected to aid in the large scale ascent.
A few additional pieces of the puzzle will be steep mid-level
lapse rates within and above the DGZ plus a plume of 150-200% of
normal PWATs to tap into. The reduced static stability and
potential for even some upright convection is a common trait of
mesoscale snow band events.

 

Izzi touches on bit on the lake enhancement scenario...

Finally, improving lake induced thermodynamics and convergence
should help at least loosely organized lake enhancement take shape
late Saturday night. Inversion heights are expected to be modest,
but good convergence and lake induced CAPE (100-300 J/kg) could
yield some additional minor accumulations near the lake in a zone
from the Chicago shore and points south and into parts of
northwest Indiana, depending on how quickly the convergence axis
shifts. The lake effect snow threat should wind down by mid day
Sunday. Temperatures will only recover to near/around 20 northwest
and mid-upper 20s elsewhere Sunday afternoon, with slowly
diminishing northerly winds keeping wind chills in the single
digits and teens.

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...it's hard not to dismiss the consistency...

[Tom]

06z Euro...still north

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro with a slight shift north vs 18z with the first wave.

Almost a perfect match with the map from the previous cycle I showed.  Congrats on what's about to be a record breaking January for you.  Now share some lol!