1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL

[hawkstwelve]

00z UKMET is between last night's 00z run and this morning's 12z.

My current thinking is Sioux City will be in the sweet spot with the axis running along or just south of the NE/SD border and into N Central IA. Kind of seems like that's where the general average is among the OPs and ensembles. Still wouldn't be surprised to see a slight southward shift from that though.

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Nebraska close up to really get the burn in deep

Freaking laughable… at this point Mother Nature is mocking us here in Omaha. I have lived here for all my 42 years and I can’t remember getting dogged like this over and over. 

Looking forward to a work trip to New Mexico next week to escape the incoming miserable, cold, and dry weather here.

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

06GFS

[Grizzcoat]

DMX latest-   starting to show more extent of +4" across N.Central IA compared to previous outlook. Always a fight in snow events and this fight is not neccs cold air aloft being around but how much WAA occurs FRI in the lower levels. Fridays temps in C.IA (N.IA is good) will determine snow amounts as the system is not that deep and serious WAA should not happen for hydrometeor change-- but any will be crucial as the moisture is there. AS others have mentioned- a S werd  shift makes sense but I think the GFS is maxed out -- expect the 4-6+ line to be on the HWY 20 line in IA,, maybe a cty or so S.

[Tom]

0z EPS...

 

 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

06z Euro pretty similar placement to 00z just a bit less QPF.

Euro has remained very consistent with the general axis of the band for at least a few runs now. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z 12km NAM with a shift south vs it's 06z run.

[hawkstwelve]

3km NAM comparison...

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z RGEM pretty similar to 06z.

This model has also remained pretty consistent in it's solution with little north/south wavering of the main axis.

[tStacsh]

I'm optimistic about this one.  25-28 degrees and snow for 6+ hours.  Hopefully the track doesn't waver much.  

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z RGEM pretty similar to 06z.

This model has also remained pretty consistent in it's solution with little north/south wavering of the main axis.

Looks pretty set that this first wave will stay north.  Around here, we are hoping that the 2nd, weaker wave, may develop.   At the end of the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM runs, they start to show this at hour 84.  Will see if other models show this occurring.  Would love to pick up several inches of powder Sunday/Monday.  

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS remains one of the further south solutions.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS.  There is that 2nd wave showing up over my area of Central Nebraska.  Hopefully that can come to fruition, and possibly strengthen if some banding can occur.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z GEM comparison of both waves...

[hawkstwelve]

Trend gif of past three UKMET runs. 12z definitely further south than 00z run.

[hawkstwelve]

After being among the furthest south of all models, the ICON has come into closer alignment with a bit more northern solution and now the 12z run looks fairly close to the Euro.

[bud2380]

Trends look fairly solid this morning for the I80 corridor on north in Iowa.  Except for the NAM, but I really don't put much weight in the NAM, especially outside of 24-36  hours.  

GFS, Canadian, and UK all showing roughly .35 to .45" qpf for IC and CR and surrounding areas.  

[Hawkeye]

Kudos to the Euro for being extremely consistent.  It's not wavering north and south like other models.  I still don't like being near the south edge.  Sioux Falls to Waterloo to Dubuque looks like the best corridor.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro totals for both waves. Unsurprisingly, only minor differences. 

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z vs 00z Euro totals for both waves. Unsurprisingly, only minor differences. 

Doesn't want to develop the secondary wave south across Nebraska as other models do.  Might be a nowcast, watch the radar on Saturday into Sunday, to see if it might occur.  Who knows at this point.

[MIKEKC]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS.  There is that 2nd wave showing up over my area of Central Nebraska.  Hopefully that can come to fruition, and possibly strengthen if some banding can occur.

That GFS is trying to throw Clinton and me a little snow Saturday night with the strong push of cold air... the night before the Big Chiefs Victory! Very cold at the game it appears, maybe 12-14 degrees at game time.

[Tom]

12z Euro...there is a weak disturbance riding up the boundary on Mon that needs to be monitored for additional lighter snows...

 

 

 

[james1976]

Highway 20 special in the making right there

[Hawkeye]

The 06z NAM was way north, up in far northern Iowa.  The 12z came back south a bit and now the 18z has come farther south... now very similar to the consistent Euro.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z RDPS has come south as well.

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 18z RDPS has come south as well.

Not sure if the NAM will verify for you but it's 2 for 2 on the season for me.

[Hawkeye]

Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa.

[bud2380]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa.

This really isn't the best range for the HRRR (frankly I'm not sure any range is).  It tends to swing and miss a lot outside of 24 hours.  I still think the Euro is probably pretty close to right.  

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

This mornings HRW-

[Hawkeye]

50 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Anything less than 3" would be a disappointment.  I'd really like 4".

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Accu-Model (fwiw-- did pretty good for the last event around here)

[Clinton]

On 12/8 and 12/9 or 50 days ago we had this.  It will probably be a little further south this time but the northern solutions are probably going to be close.  The artic front could shove it further south, should be fun to watch it unfold.

 

[jcwxguy]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This mornings HRW-

Usually has a southern bias, especially after hour 24, although I would love for that to verify 

[bud2380]

I swear the Euro hasn’t wobbled more than 5 miles north or south in the last 8 runs. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro did tick north this run, not what I want to see.

[hlcater]

HRRR way up in N IA.

[Hawkeye]

12 minutes ago, hlcater said:

HRRR way up in N IA.

Yep, 18z went north, 00z even farther north.  Dang... the 12z model runs had me feeling better again, then they start drifting back north.

[hlcater]

NAM going north

 

Way north

[bud2380]

NAM is way north 

[Hawkeye]

9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

NAM going north

 

Way north

What the f is up with these dang models?  They come south this morning for some reason, then jump right back to f'ing northern Iowa again this evening.  Seriously, why didn't they just stay north in the first place?  It's stupid. 

[bud2380]

FV3 is way south of the NAM. 

[hlcater]

Initial call for CR: 2”.

[Hawkeye]

The 18z 3kNAM had the center of the heavy band right down hw30, through Ames and Cedar Rapids.  The 00z run has NOTHING down hw30.  How the heck can any model be that different, from one run to the next, for a pretty simple overrunning event like this?

[bud2380]

I feel like when the NAM is north, all is right in the world. I’m not even remotely concerned with the nam at this point. This is what it does. It’s just not a trustworthy model at all. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Got a fairly heavy line of snow moving through Central Nebraska. I’m now going to get snow for a couple of hours. This was not predicted in this area. 

[bud2380]

FV3

[Bellona]

I prefer the NAM in severe weather mode VS. Winter weather mode. It jumps around a lot. Just my 2 cents.

[hawkstwelve]

I'd take the consistency of the Euro over just about anything else. While it can still be subject to last minute shifts like every other model, when it's consistent like this it's not often that it's wrong, from my experience. 

The 00z 3km NAM is actually not too far off from the 18z Euro now. I wouldn't be surprised to see other 00z runs settle somewhere around there too.