PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It may not have been the best winter, but we all gave it the best we had and I’m proud of all of you. #realdeal#thewormturned 

[markjb]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, get the feeling tomorrow might be pretty significant and widespread…more so than whats being shown on the models. 

Yea… probably less than the models are showing after all , it is the Tacoma area… we can’t seem to score much anymore

[TacomaWx]

Just now, markjb said:

Yea… probably less than the models are showing after all , it is the Tacoma area… we can’t seem to score much anymore

Where do you live in Tacoma? Atleast IMBY we’ve done pretty well this year and the last 7 years. 

[ShawniganLake]

31F with low clouds blowing in from the east.  Looks like snow.  Some of the higher res mesoscale models go nuts up here later today.  Official forecast is 4-6” for much of SE Vancouver Island 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It may not have been the best winter, but we all gave it the best we had and I’m proud of all of you. #realdeal#thewormturned 

It's been a solid b here, we'll see how much we get tonight but a few ago it looked like many places would get hit hard through Wed and so far that hasn't happened for many places besides you lol. A few inches look really possible for about anyone tonight though.  I'm right at 40 inches so it looks like I will end the winter in the mid 40's for total.  Top 5 amount since I moved here in 2004.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

31 degrees and snow falling again. Looks like it will pick up here right as I leave for work! It still bothers me leaving home when it's snowing but port orchard at my shop area does pretty good on a day like today. 

[Blizzard777]

Low of 29* at 5am and currently 31*

perhaps a few flakes fell but nothing coming down at the moment.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

All models so far this morning have moved the low north and coming in through Puget sound or a little north over the Olympics.  It looks like it will be cold enough though even with the north track.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 31.0 and quite frozen outside. Incredible! 

How much did you get? Looks like an inch or two.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All models so far this morning have moved the low north and coming in through Puget sound or a little north over the Olympics.  It looks like it will be cold enough though even with the north track.

Sounds like it could be in the sweet spot for MBY!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How much did you get? Looks like an inch or two.

Randy is much taller than I imagined in that 3rd pic... legs that go on forever!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's been a solid b here, we'll see how much we get tonight but a few ago it looked like many places would get hit hard through Wed and so far that hasn't happened for many places besides you lol. A few inches look really possible for about anyone tonight though.  I'm right at 40 inches so it looks like I will end the winter in the mid 40's for total.  Top 5 amount since I moved here in 2004.

Yeah yesterday was ridiculous. Ended up with 11.6” on the day. Started snowing just after midnight and didn’t really stop until after 11p. Didn’t get much overnight, about 1/2”. Tonight could end up being decent here, but we will have to wait and see. I will wait to see how March ends up and if we get anything in April before giving a final grade. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I’m in the blue!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This guy works at the farm at the dead end of our road and can’t get up there, wonder if I can get out. My wife got stuck in the driveway for a time last night. I would go help him, but he’s kind of a jerk to the young lady with four boys who lives on the corner. If he’s stuck in the way when I leave I ll take an extra shovel so we can dig him out. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It may not have been the best winter, but we all gave it the best we had and I’m proud of all of you. #realdeal#thewormturned 

It’s clearly one of the best for me. No real super-standout historic storms but a general pattern of overperformance that adds up to an A+ winter. And it looks like more snow is on the way!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Last minute model trends look bad for most places south of Everett but this pattern will be impossible to nail down with precip and where it ends up. That low looks very dynamic. 

[TT-SEA]

ICON is not that good... probably a temp issue and it runs too warm.

[Phishy Wx]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... best to go with ECMWF.   Precip doesn't shift as far north tomorrow so both the Seattle and Randy get in on the fun.    Although there is that annoying donut hole showing up for the south Sound even on the ECMWF.

this with a blend of NAM 3k seems logical over here. 1-3". I see no other reason for it being much more than yesterday's event, which was about 1.5" here.  hoping to be surprised with 2-4"

[TT-SEA]

You can see where the ICON puts the low at 1 p.m. tomorrow based on the wind map... even though it appears to wash out on the MSLP map.

 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How much did you get? Looks like an inch or two.

I measured 2.25” on the recycle bin this morning. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, MossMan said:

I measured 2.25” on the recycle bin this morning. 

Partial compensation for the times you have gotten skunked this season.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's been a solid b here, we'll see how much we get tonight but a few ago it looked like many places would get hit hard through Wed and so far that hasn't happened for many places besides you lol. A few inches look really possible for about anyone tonight though.  I'm right at 40 inches so it looks like I will end the winter in the mid 40's for total.  Top 5 amount since I moved here in 2004.

I call BS on your rating scale.  You received at least 40 inches of snow, and it's a top 5 since you moved there 19 years ago.    And it's a B. 

That's kinda like giving the Gettyburg's Address a meh. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hrrr looks fairly juicy down here tonight, I just don’t think it’s cold enough in the lower elevations for accumulating snow. 

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane reiterates in morning discussion...

 

 

Saturday through early next week: There continues to be strong 
agreement with 100% of the 100 member ensemble package showing 
another deep low carving into the eastern Pacific basin Saturday 
then Western US Sunday into early next week. Main differences 
advertised at this time relate how far south the Polar jet will 
carve into California thus confidence is extremely high for below 
normal temperatures across the Inland Northwest throughout the
period. As for snow: as the system is coming onshore, there is a 
medium to high chance (60-70%) for pieces of energy to bring bands
of snow to Eastern WA and North Idaho, some which could be slow 
moving and deliver light to moderate snow amounts. Details in 
location and amounts are far from certain at this time and are 
likely to shift around from run to run. Once the low is
established inland, main snow chances will come from hit or miss
showers but a low probability for any significant impacts. 
The screaming message is that winter is not done with us yet so 
keep those jackets handy and be prepared periods of winter travel
conditions. /sb

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON is not that good... probably a temp issue and it runs too warm.

Looks good. 4-5” here. That’s pretty generous from the icon.  

[MossMan]

A few flakes falling! 32.1 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS is coming way north of its previous runs as well... something might have changed with the new data this morning.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I call BS on your rating scale.  You received at least 40 inches of snow, and it's a top 5 since you moved there 19 years ago.    And it's a B. 

That's kinda like giving the Gettyburg's Address a meh. 

 

Why? I don't understand your post? Feb 2019 and Dec 2008 was A. It has to be around 50 inches to receive an A from me. And I'm only rating my yard. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A few flakes falling! 32.1 degrees. 

That’s amazing. There’s nothing on the radar in your vicinity.

[TT-SEA]

Big changes... GFS shows Seattle in the 40s tomorrow with a south wind while its snowing to the north.    00Z GFS showed temps in the mid 30s tomorrow in Seattle.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is coming way north of its previous runs as well... something might have changed with the new data this morning.  

Lot of the models are really cutting back in around the Puget sound…hi res ones especially. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is coming way north of its previous runs as well... something might have changed with the new data this morning.  

Yep, but this low has some very cold air aloft so it probably won't matter much. Not the same as a surface low moving in with a surge of warm air . 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That’s amazing. There’s nothing on the radar in your vicinity.

I think we might want to start investigating whether Randy has an elaborate snow machine set up on his property.    

[TT-SEA]

I am not convinced of anything tomorrow.   I need to see if the ECMWF follows.    And even then... the 00Z models could change again.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big changes... GFS shows Seattle in the 40s tomorrow with a south wind while its snowing to the north.    00Z GFS showed temps in the mid 30s tomorrow in Seattle.  

Crap hopefully it's wrong.  I still think it will be plenty cold when precipitation is falling 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big changes... GFS shows Seattle in the 40s tomorrow with a south wind while its snowing to the north.    00Z GFS showed temps in the mid 30s tomorrow in Seattle.  

4.8" IMBY, even better than the 06Z!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

When I left home it was dumping and it looks like it will for awhile!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Crap hopefully it's wrong.  I still think it will be plenty cold when precipitation is falling 

Really hard to tell what’ll happen now, but I’d be worried if I lived south of Everett at this point. Models seem to be latching on to not showing much in the Puget sound. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When I left home it was dumping and it looks like it will for awhile!

I'm surprised there have not been more snow reports from the south and west Sound regions. Radar shows a precip shield there.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really hard to tell what’ll happen now, but I’d be worried if I lived south of Everett at this point. Models seem to be latching on to not showing much in the Puget sound. 

Yea feels like this whole thing falling apart less than 24 hours before it begins. A bit disappointing.