PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, despite the majority of the models going to crap there’s still a decent chance everything turns out fine. Considering that they’re all over the place maybe we shouldn’t put much faith into any one solution right now and go off the trademarked GOLU/radar models. 

12Z ECMWF will have its say in about 30 minutes... should be interesting.

[RCola]

Light rain in downtown.

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, despite the majority of the models going to crap there’s still a decent chance everything turns out fine. Considering that they’re all over the place maybe we shouldn’t put much faith into any one solution right now and go off the trademarked GOLU/radar models. 

Yeah I agree with this. Normally when the models are all over the place like this it normally just becomes a watch the radar situation. Though I’m still hoping the Euro looks good for places Everett south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feel like the models will be useless the next 36 hrs. The snow maps are all over the place.

Low end maps show, 4-5” here. Some are close to a foot. 

[TacomaWx]

Based on radar looks like precip is going to have a hard time east of the Puget sound. Looks like a kitsap peninsula westward kinda morning. 

[MikeInEverett]

Nothing coming down despite decent echoes over here in Edmonds. Think I saw two flurries in the last 15 mins.

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Based on radar looks like precip is going to have a hard time east of the Puget sound. Looks like a kitsap peninsula westward kinda morning. 

Grandpa in Port Orchard reported snow for a half hour. Drizzle at Seattle center

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was a low key great GFS run. 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

Grandpa in Port Orchard reported snow for a half hour. Drizzle at Seattle center

Scratch that, some snowflakes mixing in now

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Low end maps show, 4-5” here. Some are close to a foot. 

Not nearly so much shown here but as of right now there is amazing model consensus that I get to pad my already generous snowfall total for this season.

[Cold Snap]

Still have a tiny bit of snow left over from Sunday night. Didn’t even think I would have some that would make it to this morning.

[TacomaWx]

The fate of us low elevation peasants now lies on the 12z euro which has just began. 

[WildrootParable]

Took the doggo out for a nice long snow-romp, just in case this turns to rain (which I know is not unlikely).

He's half Bernese Mountain Dog and he would spend all day outside quite happily on snow days if I let him.  

[GHweatherChris]

Besides just living in the moment, this is our best guide to follow for the next 24 hours.... phuck the Gfs, Euro and the Tucson models....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not nearly so much shown here but as of right now there is amazing model consensus that I get to pad my already generous snowfall total for this season.

You have done amazingly well this year. 

[Cold Snap]

Snowing at my house!

[Katzen]

Tiny little flakes blowing around that just come and go every few minutes. The snow on the deck is leftover from Sunday afternoon.

 

 

[MikeInEverett]

Looks like it’s snowing moderately at home based on traffic cams! Heavier echoes somehow skipped over Edmonds. We’ll see if this next one holds up. 

[TT-SEA]

All good for Seattle on ECMWF!

[Gummy]

So the low placement is still about the same on this run?

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All good for Seattle on ECMWF!

Very odd to see the euro stick to its guns on this one. Looks like us low elevation dweebs are still in the game lol. Who knows what’ll happen tomorrow…absolutely 0 clue it’ll be interesting to see. 

[TacomaWx]

Some light snow in Redmond now, I can see it’s heavier a bit to the south…visibility is lower down that way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All good for Seattle on ECMWF!

Acceptable 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

So the low placement is still about the same on this run?

Surface low dissolves over Seattle it appears... this keeps south wind to a minimum in Seattle.  

[MWG]

At this point I rather have a clear sky and sunny! lol 36F and overcast

[TT-SEA]

Total precip through Tuesday evening.

[KingstonWX]

32 degrees and light snow here. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total precip through Tuesday evening.

Doesn’t look like precip is the problem on this run, temps must be a slight issue? Also on the map you posted some of that precip has already fallen as of this morning as well and it’s not all the precip from Tuesday morning if I had to guess. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Doesn’t look like precip is the problem on this run, temps must be a slight issue? Also on the map you posted some of that precip has already fallen as of this morning as well and it’s not all the precip from Tuesday morning if I had to guess. 

True... here is a map that isolates just the event tomorrow and eliminates today's snow.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Euro doesnt show a deformation band over my house like most of the other 12z suite of models do. Throw it out.

[DRG]

Woke up to another soggy inch or so down in Gasquet CA (325').  This will be 4th time it's snowed in the last 18 days that we've been here and still another legit shot at some more snow tonight. Just incredible.  

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... here is a map that isolates just the event tomorrow and eliminates today's snow.

We will see, don’t think any models really got a handle on this. Will probably atleast get some accumulation back home at some point. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has also been consistent in showing a strong c-zone up in Randy's area on Friday morning.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, DRG said:

Woke up to another soggy inch or so down in Gasquet CA (325').  This will be 4th time it's snowed in the last 18 days that we've been here and still another legit shot at some more snow tonight. Just incredible.  

Love your view!! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Dumping snow in Victoria now, starting to  stick to most surfaces.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Still nothing here since December 20th except a sloppy inch on February 13th and not looking too promising.  35F with a DP of 31F.

All of western Skagit County is in the blue in the recently-posted ECMWF snowfall maps.

[Hawksfan2008]

@TT-SEA how do you think North Bend does in this setup? It starts perfect with the light east wind but then flips to SW which always kills the snow at my elevation. I know we’ll get some but hoping for a dumping. 

[PuyallupChris]

18 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Still nothing here since December 20th except a sloppy inch on February 13th and not looking too promising.  35F with a DP of 31F.

A lot of backyards are rating this winter as A/B material with a ton of snow. But overall it seems like this year has been VERY spotty.  A lot of marginal events that have dumped snow and left neighborhoods a few miles away completely snowless.

I fall into the latter.  It's definitely a lesson in microclimates. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

@TT-SEA how do you think North Bend does in this setup? It starts perfect with the light east wind but then flips to SW which always kills the snow at my elevation. I know we’ll get some but hoping for a dumping. 

Based on the ECMWF... we are going to get nailed out here.    SW wind probably won't reach us tomorrow.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Surface low dissolves over Seattle it appears... this keeps south wind to a minimum in Seattle.  

This is a very good snow pattern for the sound and very rare track. Will be a major event if this is correct.