PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

What model is good with marginal snow events?

None.

They’re incredibly difficult to accurately handle because literally a difference of 1-2 degrees makes the difference between a rain/snow mix and several inches of snow. 

The Euro is generally the best model, but even it rarely nails borderline snow setups. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

What model is good with marginal snow events?

Frankly, they all struggle. I would say the Euro, just because it is generally the best, but even it struggles.

Small differences in temperature, dew points, and precipitation rates make all the difference in marginal situations and the models just aren’t accurate enough to nail them down with enough precision. Misses are inevitable.

[Olive1010]

Like the ECMWF?

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

What model is good with marginal snow events?

GOLU is rock solid.

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

What model is good with marginal snow events?

Typically the EURO is the most rock solid-- but really no model always has a solid grasp on these things. 

Sidenote: there is a way to directly respond to posts through the reply function-- makes having discussions a whole lot easier 

[MossMan]

Snowflakes are falling from the sky once again. 34.5 degrees. 

[Cold Snap]

NWS calling for 1-2” Tuesday morning.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the radar and the trajectory of the showers right now, I think both Tacoma and Seattle could easily score tonight.  As the models have promised, temps have rapidly fallen into snowing range.  Furthermore, we are going to have weak offshore flow later.

[Cold Snap]

00z RGEM is a lot better for the south sound.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

NWS calling for 1-2” Tuesday morning.

It's an opening move.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

00z RGEM is a lot better for the south sound.

Shows 6+ inches here.  I would gladly take that!

[Olive1010]

How do you see if theres a offshore flow or onshore flow? And will portland have a weak offshore flow?

[MossMan]

Yay! 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

How do you see if theres a offshore flow or onshore flow? And will portland have a weak offshore flow?

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_x_slp+///3

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yay! 

IMG_2964.MOV

Niceee

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yay! 

Looks like the convergence zone shifted north into you!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yay! 

IMG_2964.MOV

Some of those flakes were pretty dry looking.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Some of those flakes were pretty dry looking.

DP is at 30.9 degrees! Surface temp is down to 33.5 

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

1 hour ago, Sandy rocks said:

It has snowed here all day. First it snowed and melted. About three hours ago it snowed and hasn't melted. I have about an inch. It's supposed to start up again in about an hour. It's down to freezing but the weather channel says it is supposed to be mixed tonight. The weather channel goes by Eagle Creek not Sandy. It's about four miles from here and less elevation. It is just a wide place in the road. Makes no sense.

Looks like a good shower the past 25-30 minutes.  This is only 600ft.  What is your elevation?

[HuskyMaestro]

11 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

NWS calling for 1-2” Tuesday morning.

Did the second half of the week trend colder or something? Might've missed it today.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Did the second half of the week trend colder or something? Might've missed it today.

No... did not trend colder.   Looks too warm even for my area.    But they have to cover the entire area and the situation later in the week favors the Hood Canal.  

[ShawniganLake]

It was beautiful and sunny here all day but just had a light flurry move through.   Took the kids sledding and built a snowman ️.  It was surprisingly tough to build a snowman  as the snow was way too powdery, even though temps were well above freezing.  Had to find a sunny spot where the snow was partially melted 

 

 

[MossMan]

Well my grass was only bare for a few hours today lol! 

[snow_wizard]

The ICON is sure puzzling for Tuesday morning.  Cold enough for snow and good low track, and yet mostly rain for King County.

[Ray]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It was beautiful and sunny here all day but just had a light flurry move through.   Took the kids sledding and built a snowman ️.  It was surprisingly trough to build a snowman  as the snow was way too powdery, even though temps were well above freezing.  Had to find a sunny spot where the snow was partially melted

Kids were having no trouble making snowmen here! Our snow was wet glop.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Kids were having no trouble making snowmen here! Our snow was wet glop.

It was all powder last night here. And it cleared out after the snow stopped, so we had a pretty hard freeze. 

[Weiner Warrior]

COME ON GFS!! SNOW FOR SEATTLE!!

[MossMan]

32.8 

[Weiner Warrior]

Need that low to move real slow

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

32.8 

IMG_2966.MOV

Spring snow... melts during the day and comes back every evening!  

We just picked up a coating of snow here too.   

[SnowWillarrive]

35 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

00z RGEM is a lot better for the south sound.

Best outcome possible 

[RentonHill]

Oof cold east wind here now down to 33

[SouthHillFrosty]

[ShawniganLake]

Northern extent of the modeled precip has trended quite a bit north over the past few runs.  Other than the Euro it was looking pretty dry over southern Vancouver Island for Monday and Tuesday.  Now most of the models are showing something decent up north into BC. 

[TacomaWx]

36 here, haven’t had any precip in awhile. We will see if the bands actually make it north. 

[Olive1010]

Is this a offshore flow?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Is this a offshore flow?

Looks like it... is that in 6 hours at 2 a.m.?     Models show general offshore flow later tonight and tomorrow.

This is the ECMWF for 3 a.m.    See the arrows are pointing towards the coast.   

[Olive1010]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it... is that in 6 hours at 2 a.m.?     Models show general offshore flow later tonight and tomorrow.

This is the ECMWF for 3 a.m.

Yeah it’s 2am on windy 

[Weiner Warrior]

Thursday is going to be a close call. Temps in the mid 30's with DP's in the mid 30's. To warm?