PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like a southerly component to the flow is added ahead of the incoming disturbance seen drifting a few hundred miles offshore on satellite. Perhaps its low center is stronger than projected, and as such cyclonic flow ahead it is enhanced. The lift in the Sound is caused by speed shear/sfc convergence.

HRRR and NAM...

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Woke up to this intense little shower

[TonyP]

It feels much colder in T-town than it was at this time yesterday.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TonyP said:

It feels much colder in T-town than it was at this time yesterday.

Was 42 at this time yesterday…36 now. Got down to 33 last night probably will be about the same tonight maybe 32. 

[umadbro]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is from now through Tuesday evening.

I’ll be shocked if I see .70” of precip during this time frame.

[Meatyorologist]

00z NAM rids of the feature altogether... 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I thought I would post about what's happening in Oklahoma. Spring type weather in February. 

[thisisacreativename]

Looks like rain/snow as a shower finally comes through here.

[BlvuSumit]

Snow showed just missing me to the south, enveloping Newcastle and cougar mt

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31.6 with heavy snow. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, BlvuSumit said:

Snow showed just missing me to the south, enveloping Newcastle and cougar mt

Great shots. I like these days with hit and miss snow showers. 

[Snownerd3000]

Frosty hanging in there 

[BlvuSumit]

Aurora alert 

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

The setup actually looks decent for Portland tonight. That low is to our west to allow some weak offshore flow to build this evening and it lifts a possible band of snow through the metro area late tonight. Lowest elevations could pick up some sticking snow. The rest of the week looks meh for the actual city. 

Yeah, been watching tonight's setup for a bit and it has certainly looked promising on some models but I guess I'm pessimistic because the Euro has been fairly anemic with that deformation ahead of the low. 

However I see the 18z is somewhat decent compared to the earlier 12z for the city tonight. I suspect I will probably see an inch. If the euro is wrong and this deformation sets up heavier and more widespread overnight, it might get more interesting. Those features often have a surprise or two so who knows...

[Sandy rocks]

It has snowed here all day. First it snowed and melted. About three hours ago it snowed and hasn't melted. I have about an inch. It's supposed to start up again in about an hour. It's down to freezing but the weather channel says it is supposed to be mixed tonight. The weather channel goes by Eagle Creek not Sandy. It's about four miles from here and less elevation. It is just a wide place in the road. Makes no sense.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, been watching tonight's setup for a bit and it has certainly looked promising on some models but I guess I'm pessimistic because the Euro has been fairly anemic with that deformation ahead of the low. 

However I see the 18z is somewhat decent compared to the earlier 12z for the city tonight. I suspect I will probably see an inch. If the euro is wrong and this deformation sets up heavier and more widespread overnight, it might get more interesting. Those features often have a surprise or two so who knows...

Yeah, that band isn’t until much later tonight, but things are at least looking somewhat juicy still this evening. 
 

Wind has basically died here, which is an advantage over last night. In fact, I bet my spot gets more snow tonight than we did last night. (Which wouldn’t be saying much) 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has an inch of snow happening here later tonight.  We shall see.

It also trended north with the main area of snowfall tomorrow night and Tuesday morning.  Hope that doesn't mess up the prospects for King County.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Still have 6+" on the ground in most areas despite the melting and compaction today. Temperature is dropping under mostly clear skies and the snow is already starting to get crusty out there. Should freeze solid tonight. After that happens it will be quite solid and dense and melt slowly. Looks like a lock to have snow-covered ground into the first week of March, particularly with some refresher snowfalls coming.

Sun setting on the sledders.

[RCola]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has an inch of snow happening here later tonight.  We shall see.

It also trended north with the main area of snowfall tomorrow night and Tuesday morning.  Hope that doesn't mess up the prospects for King County.

Given the track record up this way, I wouldn't be surprised if it does.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

New NAM is not kind to the south sound

[MikeInEverett]

New CZ looks to be starting to fire up over Whidbey Island right now and looks to favor central/northern Snohomish County for now. 

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, been watching tonight's setup for a bit and it has certainly looked promising on some models but I guess I'm pessimistic because the Euro has been fairly anemic with that deformation ahead of the low. 

However I see the 18z is somewhat decent compared to the earlier 12z for the city tonight. I suspect I will probably see an inch. If the euro is wrong and this deformation sets up heavier and more widespread overnight, it might get more interesting. Those features often have a surprise or two so who knows...

HRRR is pretty good too

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Snow showed just missing me to the south, enveloping Newcastle and cougar mt

That second pic is amazing.   But I bet you see all kinds of cool stuff from your vantage point up there.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Pretty good model agreement on a light refresher snowfall tonight IMBY. Temperatures will be below freezing soon, so it's plausible.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pretty good model agreement on a light refresher snowfall tonight IMBY. Temperatures will be below freezing soon, so it's plausible.

I’m liking that 1 inch band over King County on the EURO. 

[SnowySeeker50]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ew, the donut hole of utter dissapointment

[Perturbed Member]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

HRRR is pretty good too

That would be nice. 

00z NAM continues to look good too but it is the NAM. 

[MossMan]

What’s left of my snow before it got dark. Down to 34.8 degrees now. DP 30. My grass is fully exposed again. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by MossMan

[Perturbed Member]

Here is the 00z HRRR zoomed in for OR and WA. 

 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

A wet pattern sounds good to me! We're still significantly behind precip on the year (I'm at 4.70" which is about half of normal), although February seems to have been closer to average for the mountains and the snowpack is starting to approach average (still pretty low for a la niña year though).

 

Tim will be right with you. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Here is the 00z HRRR zoomed in for OR and WA. 

 

Nice!! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am going to feast in the north Olympic foothills 

[Olive1010]

Woah 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Tim will be right with you. 

Its been dry.   I would love to see a wet pattern in March.   

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

Woah 

Would highly suggest not using 10:1 for these marginal wet snowfalls. Kuchera is typically a more accurate depiction of accumulation.

[Olive1010]

Alright, thanks

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its been dry.   I would love to see a wet pattern in March.   

Yes! Super wet! Then hopefully starting in April some lovely dry and warm weekends!! 

[Olive1010]

What model is good with marginal snow events?

[Olive1010]

nws portland discussion said trace to 3" in the lowlands