August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

GFS rules the mid range.

 

I definitely agree that it's unfortunate that the kids are to have to suffer their last weekend of summer indoors. Wasted season.

 

 

Our kids start school next week.

 

Short window of true summer fun... they were complaining loudly before the 4th that it was too cloudy and wet.   Along with pretty much everyone else in this area.   And now it might be raining on their last weekend of summer.   And it rained last weekend as well.   They need to toughen up!    

[TT-SEA]

EPS should settle this once and for all. I will assume no news from Tim is good news!

 

 

Looks about the same as the 00Z run.   Troughing centered just to our east. 

 

It also looked crazy troughy early this month during our trip.    I remember thinking it might be cold and wet for a week after we returned.   That did not happen.

[Jesse]

Looks about the same as the 00Z run. Troughing centered just to our east.

 

It also looked crazy troughy early this month during our trip. I remember thinking it might be cold and wet for a week after we returned. That did not happen.

I think it’s been pretty well established that the EPS is basically garbage. There’s a reason they call it the brown standard.

 

#whenindoubtclingtotheoperationalGEM

[Front Ranger]

Palmer, the closest reliable long term station to Tim, has seen about 45% of normal precip since May. Fascinating!

[BLI snowman]

Our kids start school next week.

 

Short window of true summer fun... they were complaining loudly before the 4th that it was too cloudy and wet. Along with pretty much everyone else in this area. And now it might be raining on their last weekend of summer. And it rained last weekend as well. They need to toughen up!

Brutal times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Palmer, the closest reliable long term station to Tim, has seen about 45% of normal precip since May. Fascinating!

 

In all fairness that is closer to average than almost anywhere else!

[TT-SEA]

Palmer, the closest reliable long term station to Tim, has seen about 45% of normal precip since May. Fascinating!

 

 

How many f*cking times do we have to go through this Jared?   

 

May was drier than normal... but featured many cloudy days with light rain/drizzle.     It was generally WAY nicer in Seattle and Portland.    We had 20 times the amount of rain SEA had out here and it was still drier than normal.

 

June was closer to normal in terms of precip... and also featured many cloudy days with light rain/drizzle.   And some days with heavier rain.   It was generally WAY nicer in Seattle and Portland. 

 

July was very warm and dry here just like the rest of the region.

 

August has been very warm and dry here just like the rest of the region.

[Deweydog]

Weather is making it PERSONAL this late August. It'll be interesting to see if it gets interesting...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

September 2013 was the wettest on record!

And the winter that followed was a lot of fun.

[TT-SEA]

I think it’s been pretty well established that the EPS is basically garbage. There’s a reason they call it the brown standard.

 

#whenindoubtclingtotheoperationalGEM

 

I did not even think to check the GEM until you mentioned it.  

 

Maybe the EPS will be right this time.   Certainly a different pattern that does not hinge entirely on where a ULL cuts off.  

[Phil]

So are we heading into a long term troughy period or continuing on with the endless ridging? Seems mixed depending on who you ask.

 

I’d lean toward the latter.

Troughing, but probably of the more meridional variety than the zonal/GOA vortex variety.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still doesn't look like much precip south of Salem though.

 

Monmouth, Corvallis, Eugene, Springfield still parched.

[Jesse]

I did not even think to check the GEM until you mentioned it.

 

Maybe the EPS will be right this time. Certainly a different pattern that does not hinge entirely on where a ULL cuts off.

Sounds like it was a pretty wonky setup that caused that massive model fail, involving among other things a Pacific hurricane invigorating the cutoff energy.

 

The troughing for that period also never quite made it into the range of the currently advertised pattern change.

[Jesse]

Troughing, but probably of the more meridional variety than the zonal/GOA vortex variety.

The Euro trended a bit more zonal from what I can tell.

[Front Ranger]

In all fairness that is closer to average than almost anywhere else!

 

And yet, still way drier than average. 

 

Poor guy...even in a record dry stretch regionally, with less than half of normal precip over a 4 month period in his area, he can still only manage 6 weeks of summer!

[Phil]

We can all troll Tim until the cows come home but the sad fact is that the weather almost invariably goes his way even when he pretends it doesn’t. Helps to have climate change in your corner.

Climate change isn’t causing the strongest ridging on the planet to set up over your region summer after summer. That’s just internal-structural variability, which has been inherent to the system for eons.

[TT-SEA]

Just added it up for my area:

 

May:

 

20 days that were mostly cloudy and below 68 degrees for a high.

 

14 days with measurable precipitation.

 

 

June:

 

21 days that were mostly cloudy and below 70 degrees for a high.

 

14 days with measurable precipitation.

 

 

We only had 11 sunny, warm days in May... and only 9 sunny, warm days in June here.   

 

Probably around normal... despite being drier than normal.

 

And certainly not the endless summer weather that Portland was enjoying.

[Front Ranger]

Sounds like it was a pretty wonky setup that caused that massive model fail, involving among other things a Pacific hurricane invigorating the cutoff energy.

 

The troughing for that period also never quite made it into the range of the currently advertised pattern change.

 

Yes. This is genuinely different for a variety of reasons.

[Phil]

The EPS is troughy from D4 thru D15. And bigly.

[TT-SEA]

And yet, still way drier than average. 

 

Poor guy...even in a record dry stretch regionally, with less than half of normal precip over a 4 month period in his area, he can still only manage 6 weeks of summer!

 

 

That is what I have been saying!

 

We felt robbed up here when the rest of the region was so warm and dry in May and June.    If its going to be a warm, dry period in the PNW... then I want to be  included.     

 

July and August have fully included the area to the north and east of Seattle in the exceptional warmth and dry weather.

[Front Ranger]

Climate change isn’t causing the strongest ridging on the planet to set up over your region summer after summer. That’s just internal-structural variability, which has been inherent to the system for eons.

 

Careful. I was reprimanded recently for pointing out that climate change doesn't revolve around PNW weather.

[Phil]

Will be lots of continental cold to tap into this time with the anticyclonic upstream wavetrain, where-as the previous fail pattern was more GOA vortex/pseudo-ULL reliant with the cyclonic upstream wavetrain. Opposite of this one.

[Front Ranger]

Just added it up for my area:

 

May:

 

20 days that were mostly cloudy and below 68 degrees for a high.

 

14 days with measurable precipitation.

 

 

June:

 

21 days that were mostly cloudy and below 70 degrees for a high.

 

14 days with measurable precipitation.

 

 

We only had 11 sunny, warm days in May... and only 9 sunny, warm days in June here.   

 

Probably around normal... despite being drier than normal.

 

And certainly not the endless summer weather that Portland was enjoying.

 

I sincerely doubt that 11 days of sunshine with temps above 68 is normal for your location in May. Considering the average high is in the low 60s.

[Phil]

Tim, your average high in May is well below 68 degrees.

 

Why use 68 degrees as a threshold for comparison?

[TT-SEA]

And here is the data for May and June from down in the Snoqualmie Valley.     

 

If you want to call this endless summer warmth then go ahead... but it was not!   

 

Go through each day... tell me it was such a wonderfully warm and dry period.   

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Tim, your average high in May is well below 68 degrees.

 

Why use 68 degrees as a threshold for comparison?

 

 

I am NOT saying it was colder and wetter than normal.   I am saying it was not warm and summery like it was in Portland.

 

Summer really started here around July 4th.    As usual.

[Front Ranger]

I am NOT saying it was colder and wetter than normal.   I am saying it was not warm and summery like it was in Portland.

 

Summer really started here around July 4th.    As usual.

 

 

According to that chart you posted, 23 70+ days in May/June in the valley. That's quite a few summery days, certainly well above average.

 

I suppose you think summer didn't start until around 7/4 in 2015, 2016, and 2017 as well?

[Front Ranger]

Upon closer inspection, it's easy to see why Tim felt left out of the warmth in May.

 

[TT-SEA]

I cannot call May and June "summery" months this year.    You had to run out and take advantage of the nice days because the default was clouds and sweatshirts.

 

Real summer started here around the 4th of July... when it was reliably warm and dry for all summer activities and the crappy days became the rare exception.  

 

So its been 6 weeks of summer so far and the end might be in sight.  

[TT-SEA]

 

According to that chart you posted, 23 70+ days in May/June in the valley. That's quite a few summery days, certainly well above average.

 

I suppose you think summer didn't start until around 7/4 in 2015, 2016, and 2017 as well?

 

 

Summer usually does not start until July around here.

 

Summer started way earlier in 2015.   It started around May 19th in 2017.   I said that many times last year.   There was a pretty clear line. 

 

2016 was strange... very warm April and then sort of a crappy May, June, and early July with a few heat waves thrown in to confuse the issue.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And the winter that followed was a lot of fun.

 

What is incredible is that 2013 was the driest calendar year on record at SLE. it was slightly drier than 1985, which previously held the record (1985 is the coldest year on record at SLE btw.).

 

Salem had over 7" of rain in September 2013 and blew away the previous record for wettest September. Beat the previous record by about 2.5". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think May was the 2nd warmest on record here. It felt like a typical late June. 

 

In other news 1pm OBS in the Willamette Valley were only in the low to mid 70s. 

[TT-SEA]

Upon closer inspection, it's easy to see why Tim felt left out of the warmth in May.

 

May18TDeptWRCC-NW.png

Never said it was colder than normal, Jared.

 

But there was clouds and precip on many days... and we got robbed compared to the rest of the region.   Portland genuinely did start summer this year in late April.  

[BLI snowman]

And yet, still way drier than average. 

 

Poor guy...even in a record dry stretch regionally, with less than half of normal precip over a 4 month period in his area, he can still only manage 6 weeks of summer!

 

Haven't you heard? It's been a completely different word on his side of Rattlesnake Ridge. 

 

A completely localized but totally historic washout in February, March, April, and perhaps most infamously in early July. Palmer doesn't reflect that and they are a very dry spot.

[Geos]

Smoke/air quality getting nastier now as we move into the afternoon. Definitely smelly outside now. Up to 246 at Lake Forest Park.

https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/StationInfo.aspx?ST_ID=23

 

300 readings showing along the Strait of Juan de Fuca now. Darrington getting closer to that level now.

https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/

 

Only 75 degrees. Smoke is definitely keeping the temperature rise more tame. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What is incredible is that 2013 was the driest calendar year on record at SLE. it was slightly drier than 1985, which previously held the record (1985 is the coldest year on record at SLE btw.).

 

Salem had over 7" of rain in September 2013 and blew away the previous record for wettest September. Beat the previous record by about 2.5".

Not really in a position to look it up but wasn't 85-86 a bigtime north/south year with the goodies? The Nov event was Washington-based. It was 4 years before I moved to Oregon so I'm not sure.

 

Still in hurry up and wait mode for surgery.

[ShawniganLake]

I think May was the 2nd warmest on record here. It felt like a typical late June.

 

In other news 1pm OBS in the Willamette Valley were only in the low to mid 70s.

I think May was the warmest on record here.

 

It’s a much hotter low level smoke here today, with offshore flow cranking. Mid 80’s to near 90 inland across SW BC.

[TT-SEA]

Haven't you heard? It's been a completely different word on his side of Rattlesnake Ridge. 

 

A completely localized but totally historic washout in February, March, April, and perhaps most infamously in early July. Palmer doesn't reflect that and they are a very dry spot.

 

You are completely ignoring what I am saying just to troll.  Typical.

 

It has been warmer and drier than normal even here since late April.   

 

But in May and June... we got robbed compared to the weather from Seattle southward.    The tangible weather was WAY different here.    Did not feel like "summer" for much of the time.    It was genuinely summer in Portland those months.   

 

As opposed to July and August when its been essentially the same here as the rest of the region... hot and dry.    

[BLI snowman]

You are completely ignoring what I am saying just to troll.  Typical.

 

It has been warmer and drier than normal even here since late April.   

 

But in May and June... we got robbed compared to the weather from Seattle southward.    The tangible weather was WAY different here.    Did not feel like "summer" for much of the time.  

 

As opposed to July and August when its been essentially the same here as the rest of the region.  

 

I stopped at "warmer and drier than normal here since late April".

 

That's all that's really needed to be said at this point.

[Front Ranger]

Never said it was colder than normal, Jared.

 

But there was clouds and precip on many days... and we got robbed compared to the rest of the region.   Portland genuinely did start summer this year in late April.  

 

You inferred it was basically normal. It was not...it was much warmer than normal.