MossMan Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Dumping buckets currently! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 0.43" for today! So nice to have some wetting rains finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Convection still going up by Granite Falls and just east of Tim - even at this hour. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 With the 0.13" of rain today, high humidity and temps in the 50s I would be comfortable with a small fire in the yard tonight, but I'd probably get cited by the local fire depart so I will refrain. If this happens though I will probably be good to go a week from today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Lol GooFuS. Can’t decide where to landfall, so it rides the entire coast from Hatteras to Myrtle Beach. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 The change in the models today for later in the week is pretty amazing given that its only 5 days out. Now the 00Z GFS is digging the Friday system further offshore than the 12Z ECMWF and its much drier that day. The real rain arrives Saturday on the new run. Look at the change from the 12Z run... 12Z run for Saturday: And now the 00Z run: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like we scored .02 at KEUG, which officially ends the rainless streak. Of course, nothing fell at my location in town. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Thunder! Torrential downpours! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 The 00z gfs looks a lot more wetter for us folks down here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 With the 0.13" of rain today, high humidity and temps in the 50s I would be comfortable with a small fire in the yard tonight, but I'd probably get cited by the local fire depart so I will refrain. If this happens though I will probably be good to go a week from today. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018091100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png[/ig]Im about to burn my cardboard I have been storing all summer tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Some awesome fall systems coming thru at hour 262+ on the GFS!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Edit: Not a total cave yet, but that was a major move towards the ECMWF/UKMET solution. Very early in the run too (big swing inside 36hrs..red flag that the GFS was/is incorrect with the more poleward solution).Here's what the 00z UKMET shows. Looks like landfall at Wilmington. Then it tracks through NC before heading into the Appalachian mountains. http://i64.tinypic.com/25yyveb.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Still not that wet down here over the next couple weeks, but probably enough rain to start a green up. Much wetter in W. Washington. Kind of a typical seasonal progression occurring this year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Not too bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Salem somehow ended up with a high of 76 today. Talk about overachieving. A +3 departure on the day. 76/58. Average is 79/50. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 A whole .02 from that brief cell that came over late morning but it's enough to break the streak. Would really love to see some 2013-style September storms that drop some good totals here and hopefully correlate to low level snow at some point from Dec-Feb. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 A whole .02 from that brief cell that came over late morning but it's enough to break the streak. Would really love to see some 2013-style September storms that drop some good totals here and hopefully correlate to low level snow at some point from Dec-Feb. Well September 2013 was the wettest September on record by a large margin. Kind of an August 1968 type anomaly locally. I remember the September 5th event which dropped about 3.5" of rain up here an almost 2" in Salem. Pretty incredible. Then the November like storms that arrived later in the month. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Given the analogs that won out for summer, no surprise that September is turning out much cooler/seasonal. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Can't see much yet, but judging by the cam from Camp Muir (10,000') on Mt. Rainier snow fell down to roughly 8,000'. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 I noticed in my weather records for Battle Ground that September 11th has the highest average high of any day of the month (by several degrees). It's hit 90+ on 4 out of the last 7 years out here. I went back and looked at my weather records for my Vancouver station (graph) and you can see the same warm spike on September 11th, even after 22 years of record there. Today is sure to but a damper on the average temp. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like a decent batch of showers heading for the metro area this morning. Hit 53 overnight with a mix of clearing and light rain showers at times. Pretty fallish. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 A decent number of rain showers are about to train through this area. Woohoo! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 We must have approached an inch of rain just last night...it was a wet one! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 It's so wet here, you almost need scuba gear to go outside. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like there are some decent showers eager to get over the coast range. Almost here. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Light rain Tigard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Hopefully we get some rowdy showers with lightning later on 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like we are on pace for a fairly typical September. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like we are on pace for a fairly typical September.I’m drowning!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 9/11 related memory... when the division of politics disappeared for a short while. And he frickin nailed that pitch! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjGcCI9ByWw Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 We must have approached an inch of rain just last night...it was a wet one!Indeed! I had 1.05" here and 1.82" since Saturday. It looks like more on the way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Hurricane Florence is looking weaker than on previous runs on the 12Z GFS. It appears though that the rain is heavier on this model and it does a little circle in the coastal Carolinas so flooding will be very severe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF. What a terrible model. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Hurricane Florence is looking weaker than on previous runs on the 12Z GFS. It appears though that the rain is heavier on this model and it does a little circle in the coastal Carolinas so flooding will be very severe.The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF. What a terrible model.Last nights 00z EURO showed it making landfall on Bald Head Island then basically just stalling. Close to 4 feet of rain for Wilmington. It will be interesting to see what the 12z will show. http://i65.tinypic.com/2uhrajl.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Mildly entertaining watching the migration of colder air from Canada into Alaska on the longer range 12z GFS... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Radar looking good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF. What a terrible model.Probably no coincidence that the GFS also surrended to the Euro with regard to the deeper weekend trough out here. As sad as it is, I have definitely noticed a correlation between intense landfalling hurricanes along the eastern seaboard and strong early season troughing out here. I’m guessing it has something to do with the strength of the Bermuda high and associated teleconnections. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 PDX NWS warning everyone to be ready to get in your tornado shelter. "Given some spin in the mid-levels and local terrain-guided shear inthe lower levels, would not be surprised if we get a funnel cloudreport or two over the coming days. This is one of the patternsfavorable for funnel clouds or weak landspout tornadoes in our area,assuming there are enough sunbreaks to produce sufficient 0-1 km or0-2 km lapse rates. As mentioned above, cloud cover will be alimiting factor and may hold convection from getting vigorous enoughto really tap into the shear profile. Vigorous showers orthunderstorms may also produce brief, small hail the next few days asthe air mass cools aloft." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 12Z ECMWF slows down Florence even more right as it approaches the NC coast. It gets right to the coastline and completely stops. Here is Friday morning: And then Friday evening: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 12Z ECMWF slows down Florence even more right as it approaches the NC coast. It gets right to the coastline and completely stops. Here is Friday morning: And then Friday evening: Was it the GFS that had been the most consistent in showing this thing stalling along the coast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.