Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 51/37 and currently 38* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 I decided to answer my own question. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/ Looks like it will take over from the old GFS sometime in early 2019. Maybe we should be paying more attention to it than to the GFS Appreciate the info...a bit better is a step in the right direction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Everyone is looking at the GFS and seeing a boring split flow pattern, but the GFS-FV3 is showing a very wet pattern for the PNW. Nothing arctic though, but certainly a lot different than the regular GFS. Anyone know if the FV3 is doing better or worse than the regular GFS? 00Z GFS FV3 does not look wet... at least not over the next 10 days. Actually quite dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 00Z GFS FV3 does not look wet... at least not over the next 10 days. Actually quite dry.Looks like that’s one of their concerns as it is a bit Bias of being too dry (if we have a Hurricane)...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Very mild looking GFS ensemble tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Pretty crazy how dry things look going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks like one of those years where the subropical jet will likely be stronger than the northern jet. This November looks like a carbon copy of 2004 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks like one of those years where the subropical jet will likely be stronger than the northern jet. This November looks like a carbon copy of 2004 right now. I forgot how incredibly nice February and the first half of March were in that winter and early spring (in 2005). North Bend had rain on only 6 days from 2/1 - 3/15. That is 39 dry days out of 45 which is crazy at that time of year. Of course the end of March and April were wet and I do remember there was tons of snow in the mountains in April which helped immensely going into summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks like one of those years where the subropical jet will likely be stronger than the northern jet. This November looks like a carbon copy of 2004 right now.Coldest first 1/2 of January (2005) in the past 25 years, here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Pretty much dry south of Portland over the next 10 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 I'm not seeing anything to be that unhappy about over the next couple of weeks. Looks like chilly and dry weather with some wetter conditions coming a bit down the road. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 I'm not seeing anything to be that unhappy about over the next couple of weeks. Looks like chilly and dry weather with some wetter conditions coming a bit down the road.Give it a month or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Pretty much dry south of Portland over the next 10 days EEF4F100-958D-425D-8B6E-2C277A86430D.pngSplit flow treating California well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 31 and frosty here this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 I'm not seeing anything to be that unhappy about over the next couple of weeks. Looks like chilly and dry weather with some wetter conditions coming a bit down the road. Wetter conditions down the road? What model are you looking at? Looks dry through Thanksgiving now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Looks like parts of NE Oklahoma are expecting 1-2" of snow tomorrow morning. Would be one of their earliest snowfalls on record. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 29 this morning actually beat out EUG at 30. Unusual, as typically I'm quite a bit warmer than EUG on still, clear nights. Looking like this year will totally obliterate any existing records for May-Nov precipitation deficit. Currently at 3.58" for the 7-month period, and no rain in sight in the believable range.That’s insane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Salem may have a shot at their driest calendar year on record. Hard to believe December won't have at least some rain though. Driest November all time definitely a possibility if not likely now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 A lot of mid/upper 20s in the valley this morning. 28 at Salem, 25 at Corvallis. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Poor man's November 1952? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Don’t worry, all the waiting will pay off! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Coldest morning yet. Heavy frost & 29° right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 We're almost back in neutral territory for the 3.4 index. This is not an organized el Nino. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 We're almost back in neutral territory for the 3.4 index. This is not an organized el Nino. 111118nino34.png Low solar and warm neutral is probably a good recipe for this winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 12z slightly wetter so far. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Barf on the long range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Got down to 27 earlier this morning with a thick layer of frost and blazing blue skies.Not much to complain about.Yeah it's a real nice crisp morning. Allergy sufferers will thank these heavy frosts. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Low solar and warm neutral is probably a good recipe for this winter. Yep. 24 days and counting with no sunspots. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Yeah it's a real nice crisp morning. Allergy sufferers will thank these heavy frosts.Grass will soon be asleep as well! Low of 30 back home and frosty in Tigard as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Record lowest precip for a calendar year in Portland is 22.48" and we're currently at 19.35" not including anything in November. We won't break it this year, but we will certainly come close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Quite the low cloud pool over eastern WA... inversion season in full swing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Don’t worry, all the waiting will pay off!I’m good with any mirage that looks like that !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Don’t worry, all the waiting will pay off!There's gonna be a lot of "hr. 384 looks awesome" posts this winter. Lol... 3 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 East wind gently blowing out here in Tigard with sunny skies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Burns, OR hit -3 this morning. Not a record though. That was set in 1985 when they hit -10. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 There's gonna be a lot of "hr. 384 looks awesome" posts this winter. Lol...I think it’s awesome you find our climate interesting enough to keep track from the desert SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Another spectacular frosty sunrise. Had a low of 30. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2018 Report Share Posted November 11, 2018 Beautiful day in Newport Beach... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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