November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The "-NAO = -PNA awesomeness for the PNW" theory takes another hit.

It’s more of a DJF correlation than a SON one. And as you know it’s more complicated than that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was just up in Skykomish. Was 38 when I left Stanwood at 9am, was windy and 58 in Gold Bar at 10am, and 39 at Skykomish at 10:30am. Another example of how Skykomish is protected from the downsloping effects!

 

Beautiful.

[Front Ranger]

I like beer!  

 

[Phil]

Let's all just get together and have a couple beers... I think I owe Fred 1 or 2 for not banning me from here yet

Ha, same here. It really is shocking that I’m still allowed to post.

[Front Ranger]

Just how I think its going to play out... feels like a blocky winter overall.    Low solar definitely plays a role in that.   I am sure you agree and were obviously trolling.

 

And I have no problem pointing out when the opposite is true and there is no blocking... like 2015-16 when there was almost no offshore flow here at all.  

 

I think a lot of people on here would be fine if this winter followed a similar script to 2004-05...only with slightly different results in January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think a lot of people on here would be fine if this winter followed a similar script to 2004-05...only with slightly different results in January.

 

The low level cold actually made it pretty far south during the middle of the month. SLE even had a 32/29 day with freezing rain on the 15th. 1-16th were below average, the 17-31st absolutely torched.

[Timmy Supercell]

Another low of 12 like yesterday but it did not frost is the only difference.

[Kayla]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

Getting closer...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The low level cold actually made it pretty far south during the middle of the month. SLE even had a 32/29 day with freezing rain on the 15th. 1-16th were below average, the 17-31st absolutely torched.

 

Only rain in EUG with that one.  Not a surprise.  We only get a good snow event down here about once every 5-6 years and ice storms are rare.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only rain in EUG with that one.  Not a surprise.  We only get a good snow event down here about once every 5-6 years and ice storms are rare.

 

12/14/16 was a pretty prolific ice storm in the Eugene area. Must have hurt seeing Salem score 5" of snow with that one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was in Monmouth then fortunately

 

It snowed pretty much 4-5" in a line from Dallas/Salem/Silverton. That seemed to be the nexus of the snow with amounts gradually decreasing to the north and a pretty sharp cutoff to the south. I think Albany just had a dusting of snow if that, and Stayton only 1-2". Monmouth must have just been a few miles to far south with that event. Even were I live at 1600' had less snow than Silverton, we are SE of Silverton and we had 2.5". 

[MossMan]

Ha, same here. It really is shocking that I’m still allowed to post.

You should make a trip back out here! I hear the reunion will be held at the Hockinson Walgreens!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Let's all just get together and have a couple beers... I think I owe Fred 1 or 2 for not banning me from here yet

Something we can all agree on! I am in!!

[MossMan]

I did get a little snow pretty much every weekend in Dec. 2016 but we mostly missed out up here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Only rain in EUG with that one.  Not a surprise.  We only get a good snow event down here about once every 5-6 years and ice storms are rare.

 

When I lived in NW Oregon it seemed like big snow events (several inches) had about an every 4-5 year occurrence, not drastically different. Unsure about ice events. I think they had about a 50% chance of happening during snows. 

 

Blizzards should be even more uncommon. Since I could remember I have only been in one blizzard in Jan 2004. 2008 was mostly a garden style snow for me. Even in K-Falls I think blizzards are rare. Not really something to expect in a place like Portland.

[Front Ranger]

When I lived in NW Oregon it seemed like big snow events (several inches) had about an every 4-5 year occurrence, not drastically different. Unsure about ice events. I think they had about a 50% chance of happening during snows. 

 

Blizzards should be even more uncommon. Since I could remember I have only been in one blizzard in Jan 2004. 2008 was mostly a garden style snow for me. Even in K-Falls I think blizzards are rare. Not really something to expect in a place like Portland.

 

I'm not sure there's been a legitimate blizzard in the PNW lowlands since Dec 1996 in Whatcom County. I can think of maybe three or four others since 1950. Very rare.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It snowed pretty much 4-5" in a line from Dallas/Salem/Silverton. That seemed to be the nexus of the snow with amounts gradually decreasing to the north and a pretty sharp cutoff to the south. I think Albany just had a dusting of snow if that, and Stayton only 1-2". Monmouth must have just been a few miles to far south with that event. Even were I live at 1600' had less snow than Silverton, we are SE of Silverton and we had 2.5". 

 

Monmouth had about an hour of sleet then 3" of snow with that one.  Was Monmouth's best event of 16-17.

 

As we all know, Monmouth and Corvallis have had a ridiculous streak of bad luck relative to the rest of the PNW since 2014. Both towns average 4-5" a year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

When I lived in NW Oregon it seemed like big snow events (several inches) had about an every 4-5 year occurrence, not drastically different. Unsure about ice events. I think they had about a 50% chance of happening during snows. 

 

Blizzards should be even more uncommon. Since I could remember I have only been in one blizzard in Jan 2004. 2008 was mostly a garden style snow for me. Even in K-Falls I think blizzards are rare. Not really something to expect in a place like Portland.

 

I will be able to die in peace once there is a blizzard warning for the entire Willamette Valley.  Pretty sure it's never happened, but if there were a 1969-type event approaching it would probly happen.

[BLI snowman]

I'm not sure there's been a legitimate blizzard in the PNW lowlands since Dec 1996 in Whatcom County. I can think of maybe three or four others since 1950. Very rare.

 

Gorge outflow locales fit the qualifications on 1/6/04 and 12/20/08. Maybe 1/11/98 as well. Whatcom County also got there on 11/26-27/06.

[Timmy Supercell]

I will be able to die in peace once there is a blizzard warning for the entire Willamette Valley.  Pretty sure it's never happened, but if there were a 1969-type event approaching it would probly happen.

 

I could dig it up somewhere, but I'm 90% sure the metro area was briefly in a blizzard alert of some sort from NWS in Jan 2004. I mean, I had 50+ gusts with heavy snow. Power kept almost going out (flickering) and the sky had the oddest color. This was about 7am on I think the 6th? I may not have the day correct but I recall many details from that.

 

Yeah, the entire Willamette sounds like it would be a stretch. 

[Deweydog]

I'd die a happy man if we could manage a 12-1-07 repeat.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm not sure there's been a legitimate blizzard in the PNW lowlands since Dec 1996 in Whatcom County. I can think of maybe three or four others since 1950. Very rare.

 

I may have been too young to remember much from the mid 90's. Definitely though when I was living in Bethany, winds were strong enough to almost knock out the power during the 2004 snow blast. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I could dig it up somewhere, but I'm 90% sure the metro area was briefly in a blizzard alert of some sort from NWS in Jan 2004. I mean, I had 50+ gusts with heavy snow. Power kept almost going out (flickering) and the sky had the oddest color. This was about 7am on I think the 6th? I may not have the day correct but I recall many details from that.

 

Yeah, the entire Willamette sounds like it would be a stretch. 

 

Yup, it would take a 1969-type event.  My mom has also told me that the Dec 1972 event had widespread heavy blowing snow with temps in the teens.

[AbbyJr]

Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips blames the mild winter of 2014/2015 that led to a horrible ski season with virtually no low elevation snow, on the blob:

https://www.orilliamatters.com/local-news/who-will-win-the-winter-weather-war-the-pacific-blob-or-el-nio-1122096

He argues that the blob creates a high pressure ridge over BC. But it seems to me others believe it was the high pressure ridge that created the blob.

Isn't this science? Why is there so much debate about it?

[Front Ranger]

Gorge outflow locales fit the qualifications on 1/6/04 and 12/20/08. Maybe 1/11/98 as well. Whatcom County also got there on 11/26-27/06.

 

I thought of some of those, but wasn't sure if the winds, visibility and duration were all met. I thought things switched over to ice fairly quick on 1/6/04, and didn't think winds were all that strong in 2008 or 1998. Also seemed like the big winds in 2006 came well after the snow but could be wrong about that.

 

Regardless, while any of those events may have qualified in a few locales, I don't think they approached the widespread blizzard conditions that affected northern WA/southern BC in Dec 1996.

[MossMan]

I may have been too young to remember much from the mid 90's. Definitely though when I was living in Bethany, winds were strong enough to almost knock out the power during the 2004 snow blast.

The one and only time I was under a Blizzard Warning...the early morning hours of 12/29/96. It was pretty epic! Nice snowstorm in November of that year as well!

[Front Ranger]

Yup, it would take a 1969-type event.  My mom has also told me that the Dec 1972 event had widespread heavy blowing snow with temps in the teens.

 

I think Dec 1972 was actually more likely to qualify than Jan 1969. The winds weren't very strong in 1969, at least not in the areas hit with the heaviest snow, from what I've read.

 

I believe the Dec 1968 blast that winter would have qualified in some places, though. 

[TT-SEA]

2 consecutive days with highs in the low 60s out here. North Bend ended up with 61/49 today.

 

It has warmed up a little in the Snoqualmie Valley each of the last 4 days as the flow turned easterly... while SEA has been a little cooler each day as the air mass stagnated there with the loss of the north wind over the weekend.

[BLI snowman]

I thought of some of those, but wasn't sure if the winds, visibility and duration were all met. I thought things switched over to ice fairly quick on 1/6/04, and didn't think winds were all that strong in 2008 or 1998. Also seemed like the big winds in 2006 came well after the snow but could be wrong about that.

 

Regardless, while any of those events may have qualified in a few locales, I don't think they approached the widespread blizzard conditions that affected northern WA/southern BC in Dec 1996.

 

We picked up around 6-7" of snow on 1/6/04. The wind wasn't too intense in 2008 and 1998 aside from near the river, but for places like Troutdale it was a different story. 

 

Most wind sheltered areas in the NW really don't ever experience true blizzard conditions. January 13, 1950 is probably the only exception in the airport era. And that storm was basically a nor'easter.

[jcmcgaffey]

The one and only time I was under a Blizzard Warning...the early morning hours of 12/29/96. It was pretty epic! Nice snowstorm in November of that year as well!

I remember 96 well. Two major snowstorms in the Seattle area. One around thanksgiving and one around Christmas. The one around Christmas had almost 18” before it turned to rain overnight.

[luvssnow_spokane]

THIS IS SURE TO CONVINCE YOU THAT THE LIA IS COMING...   

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOzO1OhSy8I

[luvssnow_spokane]

Part of me hopes that the crazies out there are right about a LIA just a year or two away. That part of me is blind to the amount of human suffering, war, famine, and what not, but is wide eyed about the idea of Lake Washington freezing over.

Thank you professor Valentina Zharkova for keeping our hope alive.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Mark Nelsen once made a post about how on 205 there is a sharp cutoff of east wind influence somehow always around Foster rd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We came close to Blizzard criteria in Bartlesville, OK on December 24, 2009. Looks like max gusts were in the 35-37mph range on the hourly obs. The hourly obs show "Cloudy," but it actually snowed about 9" between noon and midnight. We were under a blizzard warning and there is no doubt it did qualify under that criteria in many parts of NE Oklahoma. I was fortunate enough to be in NE Oklahoma during the only two Blizzard Warnings the Tulsa NWS has ever issued, November 30, 2006 was the other occasion. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ok/bartlesville/KBVO/date/2009-12-24

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We picked up around 6-7" of snow on 1/6/04. The wind wasn't too intense in 2008 and 1998 aside from near the river, but for places like Troutdale it was a different story. 

 

Most wind sheltered areas in the NW really don't ever experience true blizzard conditions. January 13, 1950 is probably the only exception in the airport era. And that storm was basically a nor'easter.

 

Even in Silverton we picked up about 5-6" of snow on 1/5/04 until about 7am on the 6th. Then it switched over to ZR with the temp still at 19 degrees. Down the valley with that it was not windy at all, maybe 5-10 mph NE winds. It is hard to imagine a blizzard in the valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are improved. GFS moving towards the EURO for next Tuesday. Still pretty damp overall. Seasonal weather. 

[El_Nina]

I'm going to be soooooo disappointed if this is another lackluster snow season for the mountains. Is it too much to ask for normal weather? I'm beginning to think it's going to be another winter with a lot of dry spells and inversions.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm going to be soooooo disappointed if this is another lackluster snow season for the mountains. Is it too much to ask for normal weather? I'm beginning to think it's going to be another winter with a lot of dry spells and inversions.

 

I remember in the 2011-2012 season, it didn't start really getting snowy at my place until January. It still turned out to be a good one. December was just about entirely dry. Kind of like Jan 2011.

[umadbro]

Why do so many folk act like Millenials in this forum? One of you 4 or 5 is actually a millenial. Which makes this harder to understand?