November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another dry day coming tomorrow. Going to take the kids to the park before torturing myself watching the Ducks.

[TT-SEA]

Warm front drizzle really coming down already in Issaquah now as well.    I thought maybe it was just isolated to the higher hills.     There is nothing even on the radar yet.    Not usually how it works.    

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, that's incredible. 18 degrees at SEA with sustained N winds of 37 mph. On November 11th. Not to mention those winds & dp's at BLI. Crazy.

 

Agreed about the wunderground layout. I don't like it.

Eugene was 42/33 on the same day. Would have been pretty sad here.

[BLI snowman]

Eugene was 42/33 on the same day. Would have been pretty sad here.

 

 

There was lots of nieve down there a few days later 

 

https://espanol.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEUG/1955/11/16/DailyHistory.html

[wx_statman]

Eugene was 42/33 on the same day. Would have been pretty sad here.

 

Are you sad when waiting for an Arctic front to arrive? Eugene was 25/14 a few days later, with 5" of snow following that. 

[seattleweatherguy]

So...a tornado missed our house by just a few miles tonight. But you could hear the sound clearly..like a bunch of fighter jets flying together. Flipped a bunch of cars and collapsed buildings to the north of here.

 

We really lucked out.

Glad to hear your alright.

[seattleweatherguy]

Strange phenomenon here tonight... warm front drizzle started before the c-zone from the last system completely faded away. I honestly can't recall that happening before.

 

The 00Z ECMWF says most of western WA will have drizzle all day tomorrow before the next front finally arrives tomorrow night. The 00Z ECMWF also shows the same thing happening again on Sunday evening with warm front drizzle overspreading a fading c-zone.

 

Looks like the cycle finally ends on Tuesday evening and Wednesday will be dry.

The nws discussion talks about barely below advisory level winds tommrow. Does that show on the more trusted ECWF?

[seattleweatherguy]

Models show spotty light warm advection rain at times later tonight

through Saturday morning. The main warm front arrives by Saturday

evening bringing breezy south to southeast winds, especially from

Admiralty Inlet northward and the coast. Breezy winds will also develop

in Puget Sound, but will be strongest near and behind the front later

Saturday night. PDX-BLI gradient is forecast to peak near +11 mb

similar to this past system, with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph expected

which is just shy of advisory criteria. Will need to monitor model

trends for any signs of stronger gradients forecast with the front.

Winds will be initially strongest at the coast and north interior with

the warm front through Saturday evening, then peaking in Puget Sound

along/behind the front later Saturday night.

 

Rain will be heavy at times before tapering to showers by Sunday

morning. A Puget Sound convergence zone will possible again, probably

over Snohomish and northwest King county. Showers should gradually

decrease but a couple weak trailing systems could keep some showers

going Sunday into Monday. Mercer

[ShawniganLake]

The nws discussion talks about barely below advisory level winds tommrow. Does that show on the more trusted ECWF?

30-40knot gusts. So roughly 35-45 mph

 

[seattleweatherguy]

When do winds start picking up Saturday for the puget sound interior

[Phil]

Uh oh..

 

[MikeInEverett]

One year ago today! Still the only time I've ever seen snow with all the fall colors.

 

[Guest daniel1]

Uh oh..

 

What?

[Kayla]

Tim???

 

I think your sarcasm radar is broken 

[TT-SEA]

Some river flooding possible again tomorrow...  

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Today is one of only 4 days in the year where the amount of daylight gained or lost in the morning equal to that in the afternoon, no matter where you live.

 

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

Glad to hear your alright.

This is someone’s driveway (see bottom left). Wind took all these trees and snapped them 30-40ft, across the driveway.

 

Stripped all the foliage too.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Uh oh..

 

Not a surprise.

[Jesse]

Looks to be a cooler but mostly dry day down here, at least until later this evening. Nice day for a hike to catch some of the remaining fall colors.

 

Low of 48 here, overcast and 51 currently.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks to be a cooler but mostly dry day down here, at least until later this evening. Nice day for a hike to catch some of the remaining fall colors.

Low of 48 here, overcast and 51 currently.

Well hopefully it dose not rain on you because we all know how rare of an event rain is in November!! Lol.

[TT-SEA]

Well hopefully it dose not rain on you because we all know how rare of an event rain is in November!! Lol.

 

Where did anyone say it was rare? LOL :lol:

 

Please show me those posts!

 

Saying its been much wetter than normal over the last 10 days is not saying its rare. My guess is that the next 10 days will be much drier (and colder) because that is usually what happens after a very wet 10-day period here. Lets see if I am right.

 

It has definitely been wet.

 

[stuffradio]

Brrr

[Jesse]

Well hopefully it dose not rain on you because we all know how rare of an event rain is in November!! Lol.

Yeah, just a crazy pattern so far this month. The word historic comes to mind.

[seattleweatherguy]

Wind advisory posted for tonight for the puget sound

[ShawniganLake]

Where did anyone say it was rare? LOL :lol:

 

Please show me those posts!

 

Saying its been much wetter than normal over the last 10 days is not saying its rare. My guess is that the next 10 days will be much drier (and colder) because that is usually what happens after a very wet 10-day period here. Lets see if I am right.

 

It has definitely been wet.

 

I’m assuming you are using the term “guess” fairly loosely, as the models are all on board for a drier and cooler pattern.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows a dry period coming up of maybe 5 or 6 days... that is a nice balance to the current wet period. Ending up around normal overall up here.

 

Hopefully we can continue this trend all winter of focused heavy rain periods and well-defined dry periods that we have seen since around Labor Day. That is the best way to have normal precip and snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

I’m assuming you are using the term “guess” fairly loosely, as the models are all on board for a drier and cooler pattern.

 

 

Of course.   

[Jesse]

12Z GFS shows a dry period coming up of maybe 5 or 6 days... that is a nice balance to the current wet period. Ending up around normal overall up here.

 

Hopefully we can continue this trend all winter of focused heavy rain periods and well-defined dry periods that we have seen since around Labor Day. That is the best way to have normal precip and snowfall.

 

Apparently not for the areas that are running below normal.

 

Of course as well all know, North Bend WA is the PNW climate pacemaker.

[TT-SEA]

Apparently not for the areas that are running below normal.

 

Of course as well all know, North Bend WA is the PNW climate pacemaker.

Some rainfall totals just over the last couple days outside of the rain shadow (starting around the Canadian border and going south). North Bend is not even the wettest place. Healthy rainfall totals to start November to the north and east of Seattle. And these areas are getting much more rain again today. Jealous?

 

Bellingham - 1.56

 

Sumas - 2.70

 

Sedro Wooley - 2.62

 

Smokey Point - 2.06

 

Darrington - 2.80

 

Glacier - 3.10

 

Marblemount - 4.39

 

Spada Lake - 6.84

 

Skykomish - 4.82

 

Snoqualmie Pass - 4.02

 

North Bend - 2.32

 

 

Of course those are all the areas that have actually been wet for all 2018 as well. Anomalously wet areas keep getting the anomalously wet periods.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Just a little bitty mid November ridging on the GFS

[MossMan]

We could use a few dry days up here for the ground to recover a bit.

[Jesse]

PDX running 11.5 degrees above normal with -.20” precip for the first two days of November.

[Jesse]

Just a little bitty mid November ridging on the GFS

Good preparation for what will likely be a ridgy late winter and spring given the ENSO state.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Funny all the talk of rain and I've not even noticed anything out of the ordinary. Maybe I'm a weirdo but i really never let the rain slow me down. I can work outside all day with the proper gear on and not even notice the wet. I'd rather have snow and cold anytime for sure over rain though.

[TT-SEA]

Funny all the talk of rain and I've not even noticed anything out of the ordinary. Maybe I'm a weirdo but i really never let the rain slow me down. I can work outside all day with the proper gear on and not even notice the wet. I'd rather have snow and cold anytime for sure over rain though.

 

 

Holy crap... who said anything about this being so crazy unusual?    Its been much wetter than normal over the last 10 days though.   That is just simple fact.   And of course wetter than normal periods happen all the time and are very common.

 

My point has been that I prefer these focused heavy rain periods because they usually lead to some truly dry periods.     That is all.   Nothing more.   

[TT-SEA]

All day rain for areas just north and east of Seattle...

 

[Jesse]

Ensembles aren’t quite sold on the ridgy idea. I guess we’ll see.

[seattleweatherguy]

I was thinking through the morning, but the latest HRRR dropped that. Just windy by the water and in the hills.

Interesting is the hrrr good with wind storms

[Requiem]

So, I see Seattle is getting a little wind event, enjoy. Looks like Portland gets left out. Again.

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles aren’t quite sold on the ridgy idea. I guess we’ll see.

Canadian ensemble looks pretty seasonal