November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I moved up here back in 97 and I definitely like Portland’s action better compared to Federal Way. East wind was a HuGE joy of mine and love how the microclimate there fools even the local weatherman.

East wind is awesome.

[Requiem]

East wind is awesome.

 

It's awesome when it actually happens. This fall has been so horrid that we are not getting anything- no east wind, no south wind, no significant rain, and no substantial weather. I'm really worried for this winter. Also Seattle has gotten so many events that ended up busting for Portland. So many windstorms that flopped down here.

[Blizzard777]

It's awesome when it actually happens. This fall has been so horrid that we are not getting anything- no east wind, no south wind, no significant rain, and no substantial weather. I'm really worried for this winter. Also Seattle has gotten so many events that ended up busting for Portland. So many windstorms that flopped down here.

Stagnant weather sucks....I understand

[TT-SEA]

It's awesome when it actually happens. This fall has been so horrid that we are not getting anything- no east wind, no south wind, no significant rain, and no substantial weather. I'm really worried for this winter. Also Seattle has gotten so many events that ended up busting for Portland. So many windstorms that flopped down here.

I am pretty sure that low solar means a good chance of some cold and snow regardless of ENSO. I really like the odds for late November and December.

[TT-SEA]

To think it will be this dark tomorrow, at 3:52.

I was just thinking the same thing. And early model runs!

[Blizzard777]

To think it will be this dark tomorrow, at 3:52.

Not so happy about that

[seattleweatherguy]

To think it will be this dark tomorrow, at 3:52.

It's fall/winter. I go to work when it's dark and get home when its dark

[Blizzard777]

Pretty cool cloud formations over the Olympics

Poulsbo cam

[TT-SEA]

Pretty cool cloud formations over the Olympics

Poulsbo cam

 

 

That is the rain shadow in action right now.   

[Blizzard777]

Dark and calm down at Kelly’s marina near the mouth of the Nehalem River

[MikeInEverett]

Lucky Seattle weather fans, enjoy your storm. It'll be a while before us Portlanders get anything substantial, like always.

You guys have us beat in the snow department big time since 2013!

[Blizzard777]

That is the rain shadow in action right now.

 

. Amazing dynamics in action! Imagine how different our weather would be here in Seattle if the Olympics didn’t exist.

[MossMan]

Just over a quarter inch on the day. Pretty weak compared to the last few days.

[Blizzard777]

Since I’m currently a recipient of the Olympic rain shadow I’m heading out to get take out Chinese food

[MossMan]

Looking like November around my property. Took advantage of the last of the later daylight hours before the late afternoon darkness falls over us for the remainder of 2018.

[Blizzard777]

A measly 0.01" of rain here in Eugene, but an awesome sunset:

 

 

OH WOW factor!!!

[Deweydog]

I was just thinking the same thing. And early model runs!

Darker even.

[Phil]

The b*tch is back.

 

[Esquimalt]

The b*tch is back.

 

Yeah Michael Ventrice tweeted about that earlier.  What does that mean for us? 

[Phil]

The east-Asian anticyclone is going to be a problem starting in week 2.

 

It kills poleward vertical wave activity fluxes. So the PV is then able to strengthen without hindrance, which, given the +ENSO background state, doesn’t help the west (or anyone, for that matter). Baffin Island winter lovers will enjoy it, though.

 

[Phil]

[Kayla]

 

 

What's so bad about having a strong PV at this point of the year?

 

From what I've seen a strong PV in early to mid November isn't all doom and gloom or necessarily a bad sign for later in the winter during +ENSO years. Or am I missing something here?

[seattleweatherguy]

Need some SSW event. Sounds breezy outside

[Phil]

What's so bad about having a strong PV at this point of the year?

 

From what I've seen a strong PV in early to mid November isn't all doom and gloom or necessarily a bad sign for later in the winter during +ENSO years. Or am I missing something here?

In your cold climate, it probably doesn’t matter.

 

But it’s a bad thing if it gets too strong and screws areas that typically “score early” in +ENSO winters, like the PNW. Because it takes time time beat the vortex back once it goes steroidal.

[GHweatherChris]

Hyperbole!!!

[Esquimalt]

In your cold climate, it probably doesn’t matter.

 

But it’s a bad thing if it gets too strong and screws areas that typically “score early” in +ENSO winters, like the PNW. Because it takes time time beat the vortex back once it goes steroidal.

We're screwed.

[Jesse]

We're screwed.

Three week super vortex this January.

[Blizzard777]

Holding at .13 precip for today as rain shadow has authority

55/52 and currently 52* with really no wind action yet

[seattleweatherguy]

Sustained winds of 18 mph. Nothing too strong yet? Maybe after 11 it picks up?

[Esquimalt]

Three week super vortex this January.

Yeah no kidding. We're screwed come the second week of January anyways, so lets hope we can get some action in December. Otherwise, we're right on track for a repeat of 15-16.

[van city]

We're screwed.

Winter canceled!

[MossMan]

Getting a little breezy. 51.

[seattleweatherguy]

Getting a little breezy. 51.

Strongest winds still after 11?

[Phil]

FWIW, I’m only talking about November. Starting in early December, the tropical forcing/AAM cycle should start changing and that east-Asia/NW-Pacific pattern will begin to flip modes.

 

The question is, does it happen soon enough? Wave-1 style wavebreaking events can work in the West during the month of December, as 2009 proves. But there is a time constraint with tropical forcing/wavetrains becoming increasingly niño-ish as December progresses.

[MossMan]

What winter was our most epic Niño for snow/cold...68/69?

[Phil]

What winter was our most epic Niño for snow/cold...68/69?

Probably one of the 19th century winters?

[Timmy]

Probably one of the 19th century winters?

Or maybe an 18th century winter?

[Phil]

Or maybe an 18th century winter?

Could be. Or maybe it was a winter ~ 20,000 years ago.

 

Year round snowcover ftmfw.

[BLI snowman]

Probably one of the 19th century winters?

 

1968-69 was probably better in the PNW than any 1800s Nino that we have record of, although I've seen 1865-66 categorized as a Nino so I guess that one might top it.

[MossMan]

Some heavy duty rain at the moment. 50 degrees.