james1976 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 I'm kinda wondering if northeast IA will be the bullseye. Wouldn't be surprised if NAM comes south a bit. It's mostly a nighttime event imby so that may help with accumulations. If I score a couple inches I'll be tickled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Euro shifted north, but not like the NAM. Has the heaviest precip along Highway 20 in Iowa from Waterloo to DBQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 South end of the storm on the Euro just barely clips the I80 corridor now, so fairly significant jump on the Euro from previous runs. We're getting pretty close to the event at this point, so outside of some wobbling I'd guess that northern Iowa and southern MN/WI are in line for the best shot of 2"+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 12z Euro...shifted north from 00z...a little more stronger than previous runs across the Dakotas which may translate into a better snowfall in future runs around these parts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 12z Euro...shifted north from 00z...a little more stronger than previous runs across the Dakotas which may translate into a better snowfall in future runs around these parts.Nice bullseye for me! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 00z EPS showing right about the same as the Euro Op run...bullish across the Dakotas and a stripe of .10-.25 qpf across S MN/N IA into N IL/S WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Icon with a nice split in iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM has been very consistent, and remains well north of most other models. 18z GFS is running now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 GFS north, actually has heavy QPF right over my area but unfortunately has it as rain. RGEM is way north just like the NAM. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018111518/045/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 From ARX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84. Yep, NAM has been schooling the Euro lately, at least with the systems near our area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 From DVN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yuck. Good score for the NAM though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 I think flurries to a dusting for most of Iowa at best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Well done NAM. Had this scenario since FH84.NAM's on fire! Has nailed last 3 events here. Thought it was maybe doing so cuz S Stream systems, but looks like it's doing as well with the N Stream system. Be nice to have a go-to model this winter for a change. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 This Winter I will be focusing on the NAM. It has been doing great. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 00z NAM is juiced and still holding north with S MN/NE IA/S WI in the jack zone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 NAM came south a bit on the southern end of the snow anyways. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111600/051/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Nice to be tracking storms, isn't it? Beats just watching the LES belts get buried circa Nov of '14 and the other cold Nov's past 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Nice to be tracking storms, isn't it? Beats just watching the LES belts get buried circa Nov of '14 and the other cold Nov's pastIndeed, plus this clipper wasn’t showing up to be much of a system and now it’s trending better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 0z NAM throwing a couple inches at me. Ill take it. Gonna be interesting to see if GFS and Euro go further north or stay the course. The fun of tracking storms! Tis the season! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 wow 4" here! keep er moving NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 GFS http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111600/045/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 GFS not as robust but pretty much same track as NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Looks like it runs out of cold air for far SMI, thus the swath heading right for mby basically vanishes. Not going to be greedy, but a slightly improved temp regime could be a last-minute game changer over this way Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Canadian throwing a bone at the end of the run for our Nebraska peeps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 00z Euro/EPS pretty much stayed the same and has S MN/N IA/N IL/S WI in the band of accumulating snow. Looks like a 2-3" event for S MN and parts of N IA, 1-2 in S WI/N IL. 06z NAM shifted south and mirrors the Euro's snow band but a little more juice in MN/IA.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 ORD is already the 3rd snowiest November since record keeping so this system may be just another stat padder around here. Need to surpass 6" for the month to surpass the #1 spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 LaCrosse issued this graphic... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Where has gosaints been? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Where has gosaints been?No clue... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Indeed, plus this clipper wasn’t showing up to be much of a system and now it’s trending better. That has been the trend with systems all year, great change from last year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 6z RGEM also with a late south trend. It's looking like an inch or less for my area, in fact could get some rain. Best case scenario is I get a brief period of moderate to heavy snow at the tail end of the storm. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018111606/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 HRRR http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018111612/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Looks like we have a lil shift back south? Digging the trends. That 12km NAM has a 6" jackpot on my doorstep. I dont expect to see that but the trends are nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Advisories should expand south with PM AFD's if the south trend holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 The 12Z - 12km NAM has the western piece of the clipper coming over my area with what looks like a 1-3" hit. Other models have showed that like the Euro and CMC. However, it looks like a pretty sharp cut off over Central Nebraska with not much at all east of Kearney. Will be interesting to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12Z RGEM is also showing this western part of the clipper with a decent 2-3" snow band across southern Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Missouri, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z GFS is south. I may end up with an inch or two from this. I hate that it's from midnight to sunrise, though. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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