Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 mixing here in western sharpy countyNice going to go check now then 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 A little sleet in Papillon now so we are close. Before the grided output but within the timeframe oax called for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Getting concerned about all this sleet falling. Needs to hurry its a** up Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Whatever..I'm ready for this D**n storm to be over with. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Whatever..I'm ready for this d**n storm to be over with.Sad! Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Sorry for my ranting lol. But this blows! We are getting our heaviest precipitation right now of the entire event in the form of sleet. A winter weather enthusiasts nightmare scenario lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 It's all snow in Lincoln right now. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 It's all snow in Lincoln right now.and Gretna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 All snow here now and coming down pretty good I might add. Craig, relax man- it’s only November buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Coating on grass/elevated surfaces, though it's too warm to stick on roads and pavement. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 All snow here now and coming down pretty good I might add. Craig, relax man- it’s only November buddy.Yeah i remember that line quite well almost every month of last winter lol. Blizzard warnings dont come around too often. Oh well. Best thing to do is go to bed and see what happened lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Weird now after my ranting the HRRR wants to give us another 3 inches here lol. Im done with this one. I'll just wake up and we'll see what happened lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looking blizzardy out there. Though I feel like we're behind at this point, but radar looks good still at least. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Milwaukee upgrades from an Advisory to a Warning - saying 4-7 inches with winds gusts at 25-35 mph. Nice to move “up” rather than down as a storm approaches! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 So I unfortunately had a family emergency tonight and had to fly out of town to Texas I’m rooting for my town tho so I can come back to a winter wonderland Also, Nebraska! I bess be seeing some videos/pics! Enjoy guys.Hope all is well buddy. Safe travels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 "All systems a Go!" Good luck to everyone who gets hit by this one. It doesn't happen often to see such a dynamic and powerful storm target our region in the month of November. For that reason, I'm going to appreciate this experience and "live in the moment". Models seem to be delaying the onset of the snow after 6:00pm local time which is kinda nice bc it'll accumulate better given marginal temps, but on the flip side, I'm going to have to pull an all-nighter! Power outages are a real threat from this system...I have not seen such strong wording out from LOT in years...prob not since the GHD-1 Blitz back in 2011 or the Super Bowl Blitz of '14??? Nonetheless, they pound the "B" word pretty adamantly.        2"/hr snowfall rates???? Ya buddy...this will certainly be a memorable storm for Chicago and the rest of N IL!   3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 HRRR suggesting barely any rain on the onset around Chicago and transitions to snow between 7:00-8:00pm....man, look at those thunderstorms wrapping into the cold sector. Thundersnow is going to be a real possibility... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looks like the best reflectivities passed Lincoln when it was still rain. Beatrice has those reflectivities right now but it's snow. This is likely to be an underperformer for everyone. The city of Lincoln snow website is calling for 4" now. I think OAX's latest graphic giving Lincoln 4-6" and Beatrice 8-12" is pretty spot on. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 DISCUSSION...Short-term guidance remains consistent with the forecast for a vigorous shortwave trough, now located over eastern CO, to emerge eastward across KS overnight, with deepening of this system between 12-18Z as it reaches eastern KS/western MO by late morning. Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a band of precipitation had developed from north-central KS to southeast NE. This corridor in the northern part of the discussion area is expected to be the first southwest-northeast oriented zone to change to snow and increase in rates as surface temperatures fall through the lower 30s to upper 20s F by 11-12Z. This same trend with snow developing across the rest of the discussion area after daybreak from central to northeast KS and far northwest MO to southwest IA will occur as the surface low shifts east-northeast into MO. This will allow low-level winds on its north-northwest periphery to back to northerly and strengthen, ushering in colder temperatures, and supporting a high likelihood for reduced visibilities in whiteout conditions. Meanwhile, an increase in upward vertical motion through the dendritic-growth zone per forecast soundings is expected as, 1) the shortwave trough deepens with eastward progression and 2) within the exit region of a strengthening 500-mb 100-kt jet spreading across northeast KS/northwest MO this morning. This factor which is expected to become stronger by 15-18Z suggests snowfall rates could be up to 2 inches per hour, generally north of a line from KSLN to KSTJ to 25 S KLWD, while the initial aforementioned band of snow could have rates up to 1 inch per hour. Forecast soundings also indicated weak elevated instability rooted around 600 mb, given the likelihood of steepening midlevel lapse rates (around 8 C/km) in the exit region of the midlevel jet. This could enhance snowfall rates. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The heavier echoes in S.IA are being reported as mostly -RA with some PL and FZRA being reported. If it doesn't switch soon ; the higher totals are not going to be met. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Yeah it's wild out there right now, but the snow shield is steadily sinking south. Hope it slows. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Yeah it's wild out there right now, but the snow shield is steadily sinking south. Hope it slows.This storm is about 5 hours ahead of what the models had it at. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Parts of E IA into W IL may end up being the big winners in terms of snowfall...I feel the NWS offices in parts of E IA/NW IL will upgrade into a Blizzard Warning later today. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 06z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 HRRR has shifted well south again. Showing the cutoff south of Iowa City. Yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Boy, the SREF's have shot up in DVN (13.5") and at ORD (9.6")...those out near GRR (7") 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Most of S,IA (Central and W) is finally changing over to SN from PL -RA -FZRA. There was a brief transition to SN around 4AM then some WAA moved in again and changed things back to the nasty crap, This system really has some warm air aloft in it- something that was not forecasted (PL -FZRA) here in C.IA so bear that in mind for forecasted snow totals. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 06z Euro... Tom do you have a way to zoom into my area on that 6z Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Snow just about done here in Southwest Omaha as the dreaded northern cutoff it passing through the city a little bit earlier than expected.  Doesn’t look like we even will make it to 2 inches of snow here unless something changes... on to the next - good luck to the south and east everyone, time to move on from this one here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Look at a radar loop out of DMX and try making a forecast for Des Moines. 24 hours ago, not now. HA! https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 4-7 inches for my area...not too shabby for this time of the year Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 NOAA: 00z model trends with the upcoming winter storm continue to edgegenerally southward it terms of low pressure track and hence theamount of cold air that filters into the forecast area during theperiod of heaviest precipitation overnight tonight into Mondaymorning. This will lead to a quicker changeover to snow over abroader portion of the area and also a slight southward shift of theheaviest precipitation amounts. These initial trends continue to besupported by 06z extended run of the hrrr. Confidence is high that the area from north of M-59 on into theSaginaw Valley and Thumb will achieve accumulations of 4-7 inches ofsnow. Given the fact that the main timing for this event is still infrom late tonight into the first half of Monday, opted to issue aWinter Weather Advisory from roughly M-59 north to highlight thehigh potential for notable accumulations. This leaves plenty of timeto upgrade a narrower corridor to a Winter Storm Warning if trendssuggest amounts closer to 8 inches may occur anywhere within thisbroader area of accumulation. At this time, confidence is low tomedium that these higher totals will occur over part of the area sostayed tuned for any adjustments to the forecast later today. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Still barely hanging on to good banding. Not the storm of the century or anything, but more blizzard like than the storm last year at least. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Â Â 2018-19: 55.5"Â Â 2019-20: 17.6"Â Â 2020-21: 49.4"Â Â 2021-22: 5.1"Â Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 On a humorous note-Â I live about 20 mins WNW of DSM. My son just texted me and said "screwed again; we are moving to Traverse City,MI".We did get really shafted. But on to the next storm. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Latest HRRR has zero for Milwaukee. NWS MKE forecasted 6-8+ and bumped the totals up earlier this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 The band is way more narrow than models predicted, and there is absolutely no snow falling outside of the heavy swath. That's the issue. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I see what a difference the new forecaster at GRR makes in our area forecast. Off to our west in Chicago land they are in a winter storm warning and there is talk of blizzard like conditions. While on our side of the lake we are in a winter weather advisory. I see there are areas to our west where up to 13+ inches are being the guessed snow fall amounts. While on our side of the lake it is only in the 3-5" range with a small area of 6-9 possible. we will have to see how this all plays out. Now to put this in perspective. Using the highest amounts in the guess of 5" at Chicago IL 10" at Rockford IL and 9" at Grand Rapids. In recorded history there have only been 6 times where 5" of more of snow has fallen in a one day storm in November at Chicago 2015, 1975, 1951, 1940, 1895 and 1891. At Rockford IL if the 10" plays out there has only been 8 times ever where a one days storm has recorded 10"Â there and none were in November the earliest was in December of 1987. And here in Grand Rapids we have only had 3 times where a one day storm dumped 9" or more in November. and they were all lake effect events as far as I can tell. They happened in 2014, 2000 and 2014. I can see why the GRR forecaster is some what gun shy on this storm. We will have to set back and see how this plays out. My guess is west Michigan could be under a Winter Storm Warming later today and or tonight (depending how this all pays out) Time will tell. My guess for Grand Rapids is 6" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 At this time my temperature is 39° so we still have a ways to go before there is any snow here in west Michigan. The wind here is light out of the NW at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 I perked up a bit after seeing the NAM and HRRR taking the decent snow up through the Cedar Rapids metro on last evening's runs, but that was nothing more than a tease. All models are going back south. Radar shows all precip hitting a brick wall just south of Cedar Rapids. We may not get anything at all. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 25, 2018 Report Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just got thunder and snowing real hard 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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