December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Ist week of January as of now is dry and slightly below normal.

 

In the 50s for this Thursday w rain. Nice!

[Niko]

Currently at 32F w cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Last year this time, a Christmas Eve snowstorm was taking place where 6-9inches fell in my area and other portions of SEMI. On Christmas Day, we had snowsqualls which gave me another 1-2inches of powda. Temps were brutal too.

[jaster220]

Last year this time, a Christmas Eve snowstorm was taking place where 6-9inches fell in my area and other portions of SEMI. On Christmas Day, we had snowsqualls which gave me another 1-2inches of powda. Temps were brutal too.

 

This AIN'T last  year buddy..

[jaster220]

Compared to the winter of 1977/78 so far this winter has been  different. While November is somewhat similar this December has been much different.  For Grand Rapids the  November of 1977 the mean temperature was 39.5°(-0.6) there was 10.6" of snow fall, December 1977 The mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 25.9° (-3.3°) and there was 23.2" of snow fall. Then in January the mean was 19.3° (-5.1°) and there was 35.8" of snow fall. Here at Grand Rapids February became cold and dry with a mean of 14.3° (-12.5) but only 8.8" of snow fall. This November at Grand Rapids November the mean was 34.6 (-5.5) and there was 14.4" of snow fall. Here comes the big difference the mean so far is 32.1(+1.9) and only 2.0" of snow fall. At Chicago November of 1977 the mean was 40.6 (+0.3) and there was 6.3" of snow fall But December of 1977 seen a mean of 24.7 (-3.0) and Chicago seen 19.2" of snow that December. This season Chicago had a November mean of 34.6 (-5.7) and there was 12.7" of snow So far this December the mean is 32.7 (+4.0) and only 0.3" of snow has been reported. So while November was somewhat similar to this year December of 1977 was not.

 

My Dec total snow stands at 0.9"

 

Dec of 2014 (not sure where it ranks) was only 1.2" of futility which means I must get less than 0.3" to beat that warm analog Dec.

 

LOL, I think I have a shot!

 

I spent the first 3 wks of that month enjoying sunny FL, then came home right before Christmas so I didn't have to endure the boredom like this year.

[Niko]

This AIN'T last  year buddy..

Yup.....oh well, lets make the best of it and pretend there is snow otg

[jaster220]

Wow, what a strong SER signal showing up to close out 2018 and open 2019.  This is about as an extreme temp gradient you can get this time of year on the 12z Euro and most other models.  Another longgg week of model watching forthcoming....the New Year's time-frame is still looking very interesting.  That is some wicked cold across MN and the Dakotas to open January...mid -20F's!  Yikes

 

Bastardi's Saturday Summary was very good this weekend, showing how the monthly temp departures have tracked with their analogs very closely so far and where it's expected to go in JF

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/

[jaster220]

Parts of the LES belts got a refresher just in time for Christmas. Here's a photo from the Huron Mountains..

 

[Niko]

Parts of the LES belts got a refresher just in time for Christmas. Here's a photo from the Huron Mountains..

 

20181224 Huron Mnts UP.jpeg

Thats how it looked in SEMI this time last year, if not more snow. My area was near the 10inch mark.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and seasonably cold w temps in the upper 20s. A few flurries or snowshowers possible.

[Tom]

After looking at the Euro Weeklies that came in tonight, they are lining up pretty well with the ideas of a very cold open to January into the middle of the month.  However, there is a notable change and the SER (-PNA) pops once again during the middle of the month through the end of month,  sparking an active pattern along with widespread cold across the central CONUS.  The bias of the model to keep it bone dry across parts of our region continue to trend the other way as the time stamp creeps closer.  I'm curious if this signal continues because the LRC suggests during this period the SER to pop and some big time storms to roll through by the middle of the month.  There is a large scale system to target around Jan 15th-18th and another between Jan 24th-28, all awhile, the SER looks legit on the Euro Weeklies. 

 

Gosh, if the Euro Weeklies are right, this is going to be a fun month accompanied by whicked cold, powerhouse storms and clippers galore.  I know December has been a month we can all say has been a dud, except for the last few days, if what I believe is coming, there will be a lot of joyful people on here.  Speaking of Joy, I'm going to be heading to Midnight Mass in a little bit and prob signing "Joy to the World"...Be well my friends!

[Tom]

On this Christmas Day morning, are the global models sniffing out a 9th inning gift of snow this coming weekend???  A few models are all showing a sneaky wave develop in the S Plains this Sat and track up towards the GL's region.  The 00z Euro/GFS/FV3-GFS/ICON all show a light to possibly moderate snow event.  Something to watch as we are inside 4-5 days and the ensembles are starting to pick up on it as well.

 

 

 

 

 

Now, where things get a bit more interesting and exciting, the pattern ramps up around the New Year and into the opening days of 2019.  Overnight 00z EPS is beginning to show more consistency that a "cutter" type southern stream system tries to phase with a northern stream Clipper.  You can imagine these type of scenarios are going to be rather difficult for the models to figure out, esp when your dealing with a cut-off trough in the SW.  When and how it eventually gets "kicked" out will be the question on how strong this New Year's system can end up being.  Nonetheless, Winter is coming back, the pattern is, and will, snap back to the same ol' pattern we saw in Oct and Nov. 

 

This Dec has been a learning experience and I'm humbled by it.  The ongoing major mid-warming Strat event and the ensuing implications are going to be rather interesting and fascinating as we open up January.  Some of you have written off Winter, I have not, don't take this Dec "pullback" as a sign the Nino is going to rage.  There are already signals that a "modoki" may be trying to re-align itself.  Lot's on the table and a lot to look forward to.  

 

Have a Merry and Blessed Christmas everyone!

 

 

[Niko]

[westMJim]

Merry Christmas!

[westMJim]

While not an official White Christmas here in Grand Rapids we do have a trace of snow on the ground, This snow fell late Sunday and into Monday and stayed on the ground and roof tops all day yesterday. At this time it is cloudy and 30.4° here with that trace of snow on the ground. 

[Hawkeye]

The last few euro runs are certainly an improvement.  Last night's run has a couple decent snow events early in January dropping several inches combined across Iowa.

 

I know this week's system is turning into a big disappointment for our Nebraska and Minnesota members, but Ma Nature is just going to have to lay down a good swath of snow in the northern plains first.

[Tony]

Merry Christmas and enjoy this day with family and friends.

[Madtown]

managed to get a white chrsitmas!

[jaster220]

managed to get a white chrsitmas!

 

Congrats! Tis virga here attm

 

Correction - a few flurries falling now. Better than zippo

[jaster220]

Merry Christmas to everyone! Hope your day is special and bright with fam and friends alike!   

[Tom]

I just read Gary Lezak's blog and he is suggesting this pattern to be around 47 days.  Call me crazy, but what exactly is he looking at that resembles anything close to what is taking place right now at 500mb 47 days ago???  Back on Nov 8th-10th, there was an upper level disturbance which ejected out of the Rockies and developed a band of snow across S NE/KS on the 8th which 2-8" of snow fell.  Then a southern wave tracked up the OV into the GL's on the 10th deepening into the 990's on the 10th.  This next big system does not have 2 separate waves, more importantly, it has one main piece digging into the 4 corners and then takes a NE track.  Not only that, but back on Nov 6th we saw the beginnings of a strong Hudson Bay Vortex form for a good 15 days.  We are not seeing that at 500mb and if you would say the cycle is 47 days, that would suggest that yesterday there would be a strong vortex near Hudson Bay but that was not the case.

 

 

 

However, if you argue the cycle to be centered around 55 days (give or take a couple days), the Vortex will begin to build around NYE.  A few days later, there should be a PV intrusion around Jan 3rd-5th.  If you were to take a 47 day cycle, you would be seeing a PV intrusion between the 26th-28th and that is obviously NOT happening.  I'm trying to find some sense into this thinking bc I have shown many examples of this 55 day cycle length that has worked and I look for some of the more vivid exhibits of this year's cycle to hone in on the cycle length.  For instance, the SER has and will be a big player in this year's cycle.  When did we see that???  In the beginning of the LRC's inception back on Oct 7th.  Take 55 x 2 = 110 days...so, from Oct 7th, add 110 days and we find ourselves around the date of Jan 27th.  Is it a coincidence the Euro weeklies last night are seeing a full blown SER during this period (even a bit earlier but you get the picture).  If you are to take 47 days, multiply it by 2, that would equal 94 days.  94 days out from Oct 7th give us Jan 9th.  Now, from looking at the ensembles at this distance I don't see any SER or -PNA in the works.  Obviously, things can change but the signal is not there but it is showing up later in the month.  I know this has been an extensive post, but I've been working and studying real hard to pin down this pattern and I'm a bit bewildered at his suggested 47 day cycle length.

[jaster220]

  Jingle bells...Jingle bells...jingle all the way!

 

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Lezak should be consulting you imho. While he's got a theory going with the LRC, you seem to be better at keeping track of the various events/dates and doing the needed leg-work to flesh out the hypothesis. Kudos to you and stick with the 55 day cycle. I think he's off by about a week and perhaps will realize that fact at some point?

[badgerwx]

We got a nice dusting of snow overnight in SW Wisconsin. Was just starting as we left mass last night at 10:30. Made my Christmas.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Lezak should be consulting you imho. While he's got a theory going with the LRC, you seem to be better at keeping track of the various events/dates and doing the needed leg-work to flesh out the hypothesis. Kudos to you and stick with the 55 day cycle. I think he's off by about a week and perhaps will realize that fact at some point?

Thanks for the kind words Jaster. I’m not trying to say I’m right and he’s wrong. He’s obviously the pro but when I calculate his length with previous patterns I can’t see them lining up with key patterns and/or storm systems. We’ll have to see if there are any adjustments going forward.

[gabel23]

Thanks for the kind words Jaster. I’m not trying to say I’m right and he’s wrong. He’s obviously the pro but when I calculate his length with previous patterns I can’t see them lining up with key patterns and/or storm systems. We’ll have to see if there are any adjustments going forward.

By no means am I is good at looking at the cycle as you are, But from what I’ve seen and calculated I had it between 50 and 55 days! I would agree with you!

[Tom]

By no means am I is good at looking at the cycle as you are, But from what I’ve seen and calculated I had it between 50 and 55 days! I would agree with you!

Omg, I was just thinking about your 50-55 day cycle length about 10 min ago! Ha! Ya, that would make sense because back on Oct 15th-20th, there was a cut-off trough in the SW and we are in the beginning of that right now and the models are clearly advertising this pattern. 50-55 days would fit that!

[Hawkeye]

Of course, the new euro just backed off the digging trough in the west and removed most of the snow for Iowa, brings warmth back in by day 10.

[Tom]

Of course, the new euro just backed off the digging trough in the west and removed most of the snow for Iowa, brings warmth back in by day 10.

I saw that and I believe it’s wrong, typical SW bias at play.

[Tom]

Omg, I was just thinking about your 50-55 day cycle length about 10 min ago! Ha! Ya, that would make sense because back on Oct 15th-20th, there was a cut-off trough in the SW and we are in the beginning of that right now and the models are clearly advertising this pattern. 50-55 days would fit that!

My bad, I was thinking about something else when I wrote this. This is not what I meant to say. Rewind!

 

Edit: I was thinking of a harmonic cycle

[hlcater]

I saw that and I believe it’s wrong, typical SW bias at play.

Me too actually. Cutting off the energy and retrograding it over Baja Californja. That reeks of a bias. GFS does something similar though....

[hlcater]

Me too actually. Cutting off the energy and retrograding it over Baja Californja. That reeks of a bias. GFS does something similar though....

The GEFS is pretty awful too...

[OKwx2k4]

I want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas!! You are all wonderful friends!!

[westMJim]

Here at my house there has been light snow fall since 11AM and the ground is now covered. I just took a  measurement and drum roll please.....there is now 1/2 inch of snow on the ground here at my house. So while Christmas Day started with just a trace of snow on the ground it will end with a 1/2 inch covering. With some light snow still falling the current temperature here is 31.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is showing a good dump of arctic air early to mid next week.  It has highs in the low teens around here Tuesday and Wednesday, with bare ground, of course.  I'm beginning to wonder if it's ever going to snow this winter.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM officially at .7" of snow for the month of DEC. If no more snow falls the rest of this month (good bet) - it will rank 7th all time for least snow. That 2002-03 analog year?   DEC 2002 was #1 with a TRACE. The rest of that winter was not that good either minus a Valentines Day snow storm that dropped around 1'.

 

And FTR- the least amount of snow to fall at DSM in a winter season is between 8"-9" (too lazy to look it up now). Right now DSM stands at 2.7".  On the pace for a winter to remember!!!!

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Passing
southern stream energy may produce a few light snow showers Saturday
night close to the Ohio border, but 00z long range guidance has come
in much drier with this solution. Forecast confidence decreases
early next week as long range guidance struggles to resolve southern
stream energy ejecting out of an energized subtropical jet from the
Gulf Coast region. Temperatures will be near normal for the long
term period.

 

First 10 days of January so far look dry and seasonably cold for SEMI.

[james1976]

DSM officially at .7" of snow for the month of DEC. If no more snow falls the rest of this month (good bet) - it will rank 7th all time for least snow. That 2002-03 analog year? DEC 2002 was #1 with a TRACE. The rest of that winter was not that good either minus a Valentines Day snow storm that dropped around 1'.

 

And FTR- the least amount of snow to fall at DSM in a winter season is between 8"-9" (too lazy to look it up now). Right now DSM stands at 2.7". On the pace for a winter to remember!!!!

Was 02-03 the season when it was really mild and hardly snowed? That was the worst winter ever.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and seasonably chilly w temps in the 30s. Record high temps possible Fri w temps in the upper 50s even 60s are not outta the question w rain. UGH! It turns cold thereafter, but dry. Kinda reminds me of Winter 2015-16 I think it was when it would be frigid, followed by warmth and rain, followed by frigid air and etc and etc.

[Tom]

Models are struggling with the New Year's system but I find the ICON is handling the pattern better and lines up with the LRC.  I think the crashing SOI and MJO are contributing to the model volatility so lets sit back and see what transpires over the next couple days.

 

SOI values for 26 Dec, 2018
Average SOI for last 30 days 9.37
Average SOI for last 90 days 3.39
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.32