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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

Requiem

By Requiem
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Cascadia_Wx,

Maybe I’m weird but I’ve always liked the early sunsets. The long evenings can be cozy. On the flip side I’ve always enjoyed the super late sunsets on the opposite side of the year too. I enjoy dynamism when it comes to daylight length throughout the year. To me it would be strange living at a lower latitude where daylight length and sun angle are more uniform year round. I realize this is just personal preference though.
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Port Angeles Foothiller
Port Angeles Foothiller

Feb 2019 up my neck of the woods. 

RentonHill
RentonHill

Just a peach of a day over here

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Meanwhile, I've been keeping busy.

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

8BEE4D27-DB2D-4C03-9962-18309CA24EC4.jpeg
 

A268F9C8-38F3-4E98-A866-71775B9621B8.png

 

2DB94D6C-44A9-4E51-95D7-2DBEC431221E.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Random, arbitrary stat of the day: Today will mark the 119th consecutive day that PDX has stayed under 58 degrees, which ties the record set in 1948-49. Looks likely that we blow that record out of the water.

Pretty impressive. I was thinking they had to be getting close to some sort of record for lack of mild weather. We are approaching four months since their last 60 degree day. Last 60 here was on 10/29.

Unfortunately, unlike 1948-49, this record is fairly PDX centric. Areas south of Portland hit 60 a handful of times in late December/early January. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty impressive. I was thinking they had to be getting close to some sort of record for lack of mild weather. We are approaching four months since their last 60 degree day. Last 60 here was on 10/29.

Unfortunately, unlike 1948-49, this record is fairly PDX centric. Areas south of Portland hit 60 a handful of times in late December/early January. 

Even more impressive stretch at VUO. Their last 60 was on 10/27. HIO hasn’t seen 60 degrees since 10/20. Same with Kelso/Longview. Definitely getting into top tier territory from the Tualatin valley northward, especially with no real warm patterns in sight the next 7-10 days.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Random, arbitrary stat of the day: Today will mark the 119th consecutive day that PDX has stayed under 58 degrees, which ties the record set in 1948-49. Looks likely that we blow that record out of the water.

How sad. Hopefully you can get some nice 80-burgers before the month is out to make up for it. 😎

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

You can see the sticking snow level right now on the ridge... maybe 500-700 feet higher than our house.   Should come down when it gets dark.  

Currently misty and drizzly with some random snowflakes.

20230303_154817.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I'm totally shocked the ECMWF has actually trended wetter for tonight in the home stretch.   I already saw some splats on the windshield on the way home.  It shows temps dropping into the 32 to 34 range in this area by mid evening.  We'll see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Seattle Proficient

Seattle

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF also showed temps dropping from the low 40s to upper 30s in the Seattle area by 3 p.m.

 

39.9 now! Only an hour late :)

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted

Well looks like tonight might be the last night of seeing snowfall in the lowlands. It’s honestly been a fun winter with all this crazy model riding and I’m glad I joined in last fall for all the craziness that has happened this winter! Hoping next winter will be filled with fun as well but we are due for a dud and I feel like that dud is going to happen if there is a decent nino going. Maybe we will get something fun to track in the spring or summer time like a May 2017 or Sep 2019 repeat. I think there was even a day in July in 2012 or 2013 that had some nice storms as well.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Nam loves giving false hope for the King-Pierce county line.

The ECMWF is actually kind of hopeful too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cold Snap said:

Well looks like tonight might be the last night of seeing snowfall in the lowlands. It’s honestly been a fun winter with all this crazy model riding and I’m glad I joined in last fall for all the craziness that has happened this winter! Hoping next winter will be filled with fun as well but we are due for a dud and I feel like that dud is going to happen if there is a decent nino going. Maybe we will get something fun to track in the spring or summer time like a May 2017 or Sep 2019 repeat. I think there was even a day in July in 2012 or 2013 that had some nice storms as well.

If we can manage neutral ENSO next winter it will probably be decent.  If it's a Nino at least the QBO will be in the negative phase which gives us the best shot with warm ENSO.  If the Nino holds off until 24-25 that one will probably be a turd.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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WeatherGeek2022 Proficient

WeatherGeek2022

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well looks like tonight might be the last night of seeing snowfall in the lowlands. It’s honestly been a fun winter with all this crazy model riding and I’m glad I joined in last fall for all the craziness that has happened this winter! Hoping next winter will be filled with fun as well but we are due for a dud and I feel like that dud is going to happen if there is a decent nino going. Maybe we will get something fun to track in the spring or summer time like a May 2017 or Sep 2019 repeat. I think there was even a day in July in 2012 or 2013 that had some nice storms as well.

definitely would take a september 8 2019 repeat

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted (edited)

In other news, temps at The Dalles have seemed suspiciously reasonable lately. They were pushing 60 degrees in similar cold onshore flow, strong WNW wind patterns in late January and early February.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe for some areas... looks worse for south Sound.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400 (7).png

Maybe 2” here. Meh. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If we can manage neutral ENSO next winter it will probably be decent.  If it's a Nino at least the QBO will be in the negative phase which gives us the best shot with warm ENSO.  If the Nino holds off until 24-25 that one will probably be a turd.

Personally I’m hoping for a strong +ENSO episode that spikes quickly and gets it over with. The meandering years of +ENSO stuff can be pretty garbo.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow from now through 4 p.m. tomorrow per 18Z ECMWF

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400 (6).png

Well the accuracy was sure awful last night and earlier in the week as well so I have lost all faith in that model! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty impressive. I was thinking they had to be getting close to some sort of record for lack of mild weather. We are approaching four months since their last 60 degree day. Last 60 here was on 10/29.

Unfortunately, unlike 1948-49, this record is fairly PDX centric. Areas south of Portland hit 60 a handful of times in late December/early January. 

SEA also hit 59 twice in January, so their max YTD remains warmer.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, MossMan said:

Well the accuracy was sure awful last night and earlier in the week as well so I have lost all faith in that model! 

The ECMWF was awful and way over-estimated snow in the c-zone area last night.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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