PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Cold Snap]

Got down to 25 this morning. Euro still keep showing snow chances but with how this week has gone so far with snow I’m not feeling too optimistic about them.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pattern change on the 12Z ECMWF... might be the effects of MJO phase 8 coming into view now.

I hate that WB doesnt let you stipulate the frame rate in GIFS. Here's the same loop but same speed the whole run

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Avalanche outside Palm Springs. 

Shooped.

[SouthHillFrosty]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Avalanche outside Palm Springs. 

My boss is spending time in Palm Springs right now. Looks like I might be in line for a promotion 

[umadbro]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Could be a nice little event for Oregon! 

Temps in the mid 30s. More phantom snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is for late tonight.  Pretty surprising.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is for late tonight.  Pretty surprising.

I get some!! 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF snow on Friday night and Saturday morning.

I'm not going to let you tease me like this.  I just refuse.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Shooped.

There were multiple witnesses and photos taken, and there was an avalanche rescue in that same general area in 2020.

https://www.desertsun.com/story/weather/2023/02/27/southern-california-blizzard-avalanche-on-mountain-above-palm-springs/69951295007/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Silver Falls is sitting at 31.5 at noon. Mid to upper 30s seems like a good bet at home today. Still a little snow hanging on here in the shade at the office in Salem. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS also shows the pattern change... seems inevitable at this point.     Surprisingly not that wet though.    At least not yet.

[TT-SEA]

Cold likely to be centered in the east by mid-March.   Phil might be right about winter finally making an appearance there in spring this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS also shows the pattern change... seems inevitable at this point.     Surprisingly not that wet though.    At least not yet.

The Thursday-Saturday period may be mildly interesting, but the pattern much of next week looks pretty boring. Maybe some afternoon snow showers over the higher terrain, generally cool, probably a lot of frost/freezes for places that get clearing, and decently pleasant afternoons, though highs will probably be on the coolish side. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold likely to be centered in the east by mid-March.   Phil might be right about winter finally making an appearance there in spring this year.

I do think it will be transitory and troughing will end up back out west by the end of the month. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Thursday-Saturday period may be mildly interesting, but the pattern much of next week looks pretty boring. Maybe some afternoon snow showers over the higher terrain, generally cool, probably a lot of frost/freezes for places that get clearing, and decently pleasant afternoons, though highs will probably be on the coolish side. 

Sounds like a blessing Andrew. Last few weeks have been a blessing after a nasty period from late December to mid January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Sounds like a blessing Andrew. Last few weeks have been a blessing after a nasty period from late December to mid January. 

I think we will have a nice spring. Plenty of blessings for all, sun for Tim, frost for Jim, rain for Jesse. 

[TT-SEA]

Current view here... lovely day.   Snow will probably be mostly gone after tomorrow. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we will have a nice spring. Plenty of blessings for all, sun for Tim, frost for Jim, rain for Jesse. 

Besides things being dry overall…since November we’ve stayed on the cool side of average and mountain snowfall hasn’t been terrible. The only really lame period so far this winter was from right after Christmas until about January 20th. I’m sure we will make up for the dry winter in the next few weeks though. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Current view here... lovely day.   Snow will probably be mostly gone after tomorrow. 

How much do u average per year? Seems like a down year for you snow wise 

[TacomaWx]

45 at home, chance we end up with our warmest max since before Andrews infamous Valentine’s Day trough. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much do u average per year? Seems like a down year for you snow wise 

Hard to say... but I think it's probably around 50 inches.   But it's often feast or famine with some 100+ inch years and some with very little snow.    Doing some quick math... I would guess we are around 30 inches this year with one big event in December and lots of little events like we have had over the last 2 weeks.

[Omegaraptor]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I do think it will be transitory and troughing will end up back out west by the end of the month. 

Probably still going to be waiting a while before vegetation really gets going for spring.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Probably still going to be waiting a while before vegetation really gets going for spring.

2019 was amazing in that regard... we had deep snow cover here for the first part of March and then a few days in the 70s and peaked at 80 and by the end of March the trees were already beginning to leaf out and I did the first lawn mowing.   Probably won't be that fast of a turn around this year.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2019 was amazing in that regard... we had deep snow cover here for the first part of March and then a few days in the 70s and peaked at 80 and by the end of March the trees were already beginning to leaf out and I did the first lawn mowing.   Probably won't be that fast of a turn around this year.

Yeah I was thinking of 2019. Last spring was basically the opposite. There was sufficient warmth in March and early April to get things going and then it was basically dead stopped or going at a snail’s pace for over a month. 

Completely bare trees in central OR in late May, completely green leaves on trees in early November. Weird year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

GEFS is the most troughy.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2019 was amazing in that regard... we had deep snow cover here for the first part of March and then a few days in the 70s and peaked at 80 and by the end of March the trees were already beginning to leaf out and I did the first lawn mowing.   Probably won't be that fast of a turn around this year.

i was talking to me neibor about the deep snow of 2019 and he said in 1996 there was 40 inches on the ground in december. I lived about 6 miles east of my current place and we had 26 inches so it sounds about right.  He keeps track and told me that season was around 60 inches. Man i've always wondered how much my area got in 68-69 or 1950.  1968 1969 was probable 100 inches i'd bet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Imo the perfect amount of deep snow to look neat but still be able do get around is about 16 inches deep. once you get around the 20 inch mark like Andrew has if you don't have a tall truck or chains on all 4 you are not going anywhere. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Imo the perfect amount of deep snow to look neat but still be able do get around is about 16 inches deep. once you get around the 20 inch mark like Andrew has if you don't have a tall truck or chains on all 4 you are not going anywhere. 

Yeah, when it hit 20” here in 2019…it started getting insane in the city. Even once it started melting it kept re-freezing at night it was just a challenge. 

[MillCreekMike]

Pretty cool thing about this winter is there was almost always something to model ride for (minus the period from late December to late January which was a snooze fest). We’ve had winters where there’s maybe a couple periods of model riding and that’s it. We had stuff to watch from late October to late December basically nonstop, and then from late January to March basically nonstop. Obviously a bummer that things didn’t turn out as good as they could have, but at least we were entertained for most of the winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, when it hit 20” here in 2019…it started getting insane in the city. Even once it started melting it kept re-freezing at night it was just a challenge. 

We only maxed out 12-14in out here in South Hill. We turned to rain before even Ocean Shores did. I think Tacoma stayed snow 12-24 hours later than the swamp. It was a very solid year but nothing legendary 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, when it hit 20” here in 2019…it started getting insane in the city. Even once it started melting it kept re-freezing at night it was just a challenge. 

I hope i see something like that again here, very good chance it will never happen again in my lifetime.  If that same pattern had happened in December it would of been crazy. I lost a bunch of my depth from daytime heating, i messed up though i should of checked my snowboards every few hrs and kept better measurements because i had much more actual snowfall than what i measured. I was loosing a lot from compaction and that period that i had 20 inches in like 24 hrs my actual snowfall was more like 26 inches. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We only maxed out 12-14in out here in South Hill. We turned to rain before even Ocean Shores did. I think Tacoma stayed snow 12-24 hours later than the swamp. It was a very solid year but nothing legendary 

Really just depended on where you were. Areas out near the foothills got warm tounged early on in the final storm…took awhile for it to finally change over here. Gotta remember the swamp doesn’t allow legendary events lol. For me it was even better than December 2008…but not too far ahead of that one. 

[SnowySeeker50]

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My boss is spending time in Palm Springs right now. Looks like I might be in line for a promotion 

Mt San Jacinto?

 

that's a cool area, you can take a tram to the top

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really just depended on where you were. Areas out near the foothills got warm tounged early on in the final storm…took awhile for it to finally change over here. Gotta remember the swamp doesn’t allow legendary events lol. For me it was even better than December 2008…but not too far ahead of that one. 

December 2008 was just incredible for staying power. 2019 had deeper snow for me and bigger storms but 2008 was colder and just lasted forever.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My boss is spending time in Palm Springs right now. Looks like I might be in line for a promotion 

Mt San Jacinto.

 

yeah you can take a tram to the top of it.

 

neat up there on a summer day

[Phishy Wx]

Headed to South Carolina in the morning for my folks 50th Anniversary.  Hired a dude for snow removal while we're gone.  curious to see how much we actually get.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

December 2008 was just incredible for staying power. 2019 had deeper snow for me and bigger storms but 2008 was colder and just lasted forever.

08 was like December 2021 on roids. Tons of small-moderate events that added up over time and stuck around for a long time. February 2019 was close in terms of staying power…but we had much bigger snow dumps. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

December 2008 was just incredible for staying power. 2019 had deeper snow for me and bigger storms but 2008 was colder and just lasted forever.

2019 was much better here for staying power... 6 weeks of solid snow cover.    In 2008 we had about 3 weeks but the flooding rain event in early January 2009 wiped it all out in a hurry.

[Requiem]

2008 was legendary down this way. Parts of the West Hills had as much as 30 inches of snow from the 12/20-12/23 storm sequence. Just an insane event compounded by layers of thick ice in between the fresh snowfalls.

2019 on the other hand was relatively milquetoast. I'd even say this year was better for consistent snow.

 

[MillCreekMike]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2019 was much better here for staying power... 6 weeks of solid snow cover.    In 2008 we had about 3 weeks but the flooding rain event in early January 2009 wiped it all out in a hurry.

That flooding rain event in Jan. 2009 was super memorable up here and just made that stretch of weather even more historic and memorable. 2nd highest crest the Snohomish River at Snohomish has ever recorded. The Snohomish River valley turned into a lake which was insane. That actually happened in 2006 as well, pretty crazy that out of the three or four times that River has flooded that badly two of them happened in a stretch of 4 years. 

[MillCreekMike]

February 2019 is the greatest stretch of snow and cold I have witnessed in my lifetime. Was about five days shorter than 2008 but we got about 5 more inches of snow total. Our snow depth peaked at 17” in Mill Creek before it turned to rain on the 12th. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

08 was like December 2021 on roids. Tons of small-moderate events that added up over time and stuck around for a long time. February 2019 was close in terms of staying power…but we had much bigger snow dumps. 

I was between the two big snow dumps in February 2019, to far south early in the month, to far north at the end of the month. Just small to moderate snow events almost daily, 18 days with at least an inch, never more than 6.5” in a day. 

[Meatyorologist]

February 2019 is the only time I've ever seen a foot on the ground here in Seattle. In December 2008 it got up to ~10" at the old Magnolia appartment where my family was living, but I was out of town in Spokane (there it was over two feet!)

[MillCreekMike]

Every time I look back at my camera roll to February 2019 I’m just mesmerized at the amount of snow we had, especially on the last day when the wet snow just kept piling up.

 

[Fircrest]

32 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Mt San Jacinto.

 

yeah you can take a tram to the top of it.

 

neat up there on a summer day

Pretty fun up there on a winter day also.  We went up in mid December last year and there was 8" of snow then.  I'm sure a lot more now.

[MillCreekMike]

Another cool thing about Feb. 2019 is there was absolutely nothing exciting the whole winter prior to that, there wasn’t any exciting model riding that I can recall, and we were all ready to stick forks in that winter and then it probably did the biggest 180 ever and delivered like I never could have imagined.

[MillCreekMike]

I feel like a sports fan clinging to the past and talking about the good old days right now but in meteorological terms.

[TacomaWx]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was between the two big snow dumps in February 2019, to far south early in the month, to far north at the end of the month. Just small to moderate snow events almost daily, 18 days with at least an inch, never more than 6.5” in a day. 

We never had more than 5” in a daily total…but 2/8-2/9 we had 9.5”. 2nd biggest snowstorm I’ve recorded here besides February 2021s 13.5” total. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

I feel like a sports fan clinging to the past and talking about the good old days right now but in meteorological terms.

We’re entering the time of year that all we do is bicker about weather preferences and relive the snowy glory days. I usually stick around throughout the year…but I might try and avoid the warm season preference wars this year.