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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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15 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Every time I look back at my camera roll to February 2019 I’m just mesmerized at the amount of snow we had, especially on the last day when the wet snow just kept piling up.

image.thumb.jpeg.c39c6071d7b92abf1b177f5f61b648ac.jpeg
 

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Stickage!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Could be a nice little event for Oregon! 

1FB721F3-5E7F-43D2-A001-E9AC901EF279.png

96DC57BF-20C0-44A4-A355-926B58DC88CD.png

I think most people in the Oregon lowlands are pretty over it after all these marginal close calls that don’t really amount to much. As one of those people, I get it. Plus it’s freaking March. But the pattern this weekend is actually kind of intriguing based on a potential influx of colder air into columbia basin and a low placement that might pull some of that into Portland region. Still doubtful, but can at least see a scenario where a broader area sees accumulating snow at least for a bit than the previous few days. 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re entering the time of year that all we do is bicker about weather preferences and relive the snowy glory days. I usually stick around throughout the year…but I might try and avoid the warm season preference wars this year. 

It’s gonna be weird seeing things slow down on here so much after the nearly endless model riding we had on here this winter

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

Go M’s

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8 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I think most people in the Oregon lowlands are pretty over it after all these marginal close calls that don’t really amount to much. As one of those people, I get it. Plus it’s freaking March. But the pattern this weekend is actually kind of intriguing based on a potential influx of colder air into columbia basin and a low placement that might pull some of that into Portland region. Still doubtful, but can at least see a scenario where a broader area sees accumulating snow at least for a bit than the previous few days. 

Welcome Andstorm!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

It’s gonna be weird seeing things slow down on here so much after the nearly endless model riding we had on here this winter

Should be wrapped up and slowing down here after the wet non accumulating snowstorm coming Friday night. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Minimum high-60

Minimum low-44

 -40 highs-0

 -32 lows-0

 -32 highs-0

monthly rainfall-3.14”

cold season rainfall-0.00”

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6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

90652C24-DEFC-4103-BAAC-AE7343DC59F4.thumb.jpeg.70df908ee369e54fdbade9a26a5b6e26.jpeg81547E90-EB02-4FAA-8AC0-173ACE74A0EB.thumb.jpeg.dc468786ff3c27810cdef164fad1c1f2.jpeg5F337610-6A1E-4969-AB7D-782B08951F92.thumb.jpeg.4b91fd787523a62987a0032bab5a4261.jpegBBA204FA-4448-401F-9871-25D6777904B0.thumb.jpeg.d4847526b03b5e60873416a80718b95a.jpegFC14FEF8-02F3-40B1-9875-F9FE7C947084.thumb.jpeg.7f0e5a3e03127ef3c6465fb2e1e9f2fd.jpegD49B19BF-4722-43FB-AE02-8AB33F7309DD.thumb.jpeg.7a3a81fc80f79c9e3d7f4578089b5d8b.jpegBE0DCA2A-B437-45F6-A852-DBE0AF8F647E.thumb.jpeg.2498f07acf944eb903b6ed9f2cae6a4a.jpegCF5A3902-17DA-4F3A-9007-BB93C58C3429.thumb.jpeg.35d54b2f56e3270877312c6d573a1450.jpeg

 

Feb 2019 up my neck of the woods. 

What a dream! On Redfin's property access tool I've seen some homes in that region sitting around 1500-2000'. The shadowing must be immense, but in the right upsloping situations I bet things get out of control real quick.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

What a dream! On Redfin's property access tool I've seen some homes in that region sitting around 1500-2000'. The shadowing must be immense, but in the right upsloping situations I bet things get out of control real quick.

I'm right at 1000'. The shadowing is annoying as hell, but not as bad as say Port Townsend or Sequim. We have a good upslope event at least once a season that provides anywhere from 6" to 3'

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34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

February 2019 is the only time I've ever seen a foot on the ground here in Seattle. In December 2008 it got up to ~10" at the old Magnolia appartment where my family was living, but I was out of town in Spokane (there it was over two feet!)

Interesting, I certainly has more than a 12" of snow depth in View Ridge back in Dec 2008.

Also came close in Feb 2021, but you seem to have picked up less snow than I had (11"). I guess with compaction it was more like 9.5"-10" depth.

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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7 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Interesting, I certainly has more than a 12" of snow depth in View Ridge back in Dec 2008.

Also came close in Feb 2021, but you seem to have picked up less snow than I had (11"). I guess with compaction it was more like 9.5"-10" depth.

I remember seeing 14" in Shoreline in December 1990.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What a dream! On Redfin's property access tool I've seen some homes in that region sitting around 1500-2000'. The shadowing must be immense, but in the right upsloping situations I bet things get out of control real quick.

Lake Dawn is a nice area. About 1,900' and right by the Hurricane Ridge entrance to Olympic National Park.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone post the 18z gfs snow maps for tonight and Friday night through sat please

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7790800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7963600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow friday night is looking like the real deal!!

Surprised to see the models are sticking to their guns on snow near the sound too…though I wouldn’t be surprised if totals get sliced near the Puget sound over the next 48 hours. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Minimum high-60

Minimum low-44

 -40 highs-0

 -32 lows-0

 -32 highs-0

monthly rainfall-3.14”

cold season rainfall-0.00”

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Lake Dawn is a nice area. About 1,900' and right by the Hurricane Ridge entrance to Olympic National Park.

I looked at a nice A frame house on that lake a few years ago. I bet they get hammered more than I do. Less shadowing as you go west

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Surprised to see the models are sticking to their guns on snow near the sound too…though I wouldn’t be surprised if totals get sliced near the Puget sound over the next 48 hours. 

Might be the last real chance for the lowlands. I still think friday night could be the biggest event of the season out here or close. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone post the 18z gfs snow maps for tonight and Friday night through sat please

 

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7790800.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7963600.png

So am I looking at that correctly that the Euro gives me more snow than the GFS??? That’s rare. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

So am I looking at that correctly that the Euro gives me more snow than the GFS??? That’s rare. 

I think so.   

But those maps are the specific 24-hour periods requested.   Your big c-zone snow comes on Friday morning and unfortunately the goofy GFS puts it farther north.   The ECMWF has been very consistent and it will actually be over your area.

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7877200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think so.   

But those maps are the specific 24-hour periods requested.   Your big c-zone snow comes on Friday morning and unfortunately the goofy GFS puts it farther north.   The ECMWF has been very consistent and it will actually be over your area.

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7877200.png

Ahhh gotcha thanks!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Flagstaff is having a dawg of a winter, especially this last month. Going back to November, all months have been either cooler than normal, snowier than normal, or both. (T.anom/precip/snow)

Nov: -2.9F/1.09"/3.5"

Dec: 1.9F/2.33"/20.6"

Jan: -4.0F/5.87"/61.4"

Feb: -5.6F/3.12"/33.4"

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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50 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

It’s gonna be weird seeing things slow down on here so much after the nearly endless model riding we had on here this winter

Yeah it will be back to Colorful yard and playing on the water pics! I know a few posters who are super excited for that!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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27 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

No idea. I only moved here 6 years ago. Everyone I ask looks at me like I am crazy 😂

It’s awesome to have a poster from your area! I always knew your area did well and those photos are awesome!

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it will be back to Colorful yard and playing on the water pics! I know a few posters who are super excited for that!!! 

In summer I’ll be looking forward to the first “wet deck” picture after the inevitable weeks long dry streak 😂

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Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

Go M’s

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It’s like I live in a different world. Coming back from Wenatchee and hitting I-5 in Everett it was 48 degrees. By the time I take my exit in north Stanwood it was 38 degrees with snow on the ground still. The fresh snow that fell this morning is still protected under my truck from when I parked it at 6:45am! 

603E709F-9026-480B-ADD1-7223D99740A6.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Big storm rolling in today down here.

Check out the live cam from Flagstaff!

 

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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1 hour ago, Andstorm said:

I think most people in the Oregon lowlands are pretty over it after all these marginal close calls that don’t really amount to much. As one of those people, I get it. Plus it’s freaking March. But the pattern this weekend is actually kind of intriguing based on a potential influx of colder air into columbia basin and a low placement that might pull some of that into Portland region. Still doubtful, but can at least see a scenario where a broader area sees accumulating snow at least for a bit than the previous few days. 

You've got a lot of weenies out there today for someone with a lot of snow, Rubus.

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Was such a perfect day for pass travel! Tomorrow might be slightly different. 

39B42BEB-AF30-4527-9730-2E37349517F7.jpeg

E536BEEC-9669-4C7F-AB79-F539B996BA8B.jpeg

D8595571-82B6-46D0-B4CE-62A49676FD0D.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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38 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Flagstaff is having a dawg of a winter, especially this last month. Going back to November, all months have been either cooler than normal, snowier than normal, or both. (T.anom/precip/snow)

Nov: -2.9F/1.09"/3.5"

Dec: 1.9F/2.33"/20.6"

Jan: -4.0F/5.87"/61.4"

Feb: -5.6F/3.12"/33.4"

Helluva stretch for pretty much the entire West.

120dTDeptNWSWR.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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image.png

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

Just need that precip to move just a few more miles to the east! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

Crap. I’m getting suckered in again. 

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27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

It would be nice to squeak out one more event for the lowlands even if it’s just an inch or two. Especially at SEA because then that would make it 5 straight months with measurable snow there.

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2023 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 37

Number of 85+ days - 17

Number of 90+ days - 5 

Number of 95+ days - 1 (warmest so far - 95)

Number of 60+ lows - 5 (warmest so far - 61)

 

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF for Friday night and Saturday morning

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400 (2).png

Is my Friday AM still on? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF for Friday night and Saturday morning

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400 (2).png

Upped our totals from the last run. Seems kinda funky how it kinda snowholes just to the SW of here as well but shows us getting a higher total. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Minimum high-60

Minimum low-44

 -40 highs-0

 -32 lows-0

 -32 highs-0

monthly rainfall-3.14”

cold season rainfall-0.00”

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46/27 here today. 27 is pretty cold for early March…coldest March low since we hit 26 in 2019. Haven’t managed a low below 26 in the 2005-2022 records. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Minimum high-60

Minimum low-44

 -40 highs-0

 -32 lows-0

 -32 highs-0

monthly rainfall-3.14”

cold season rainfall-0.00”

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Upped our totals from the last run. Seems kinda funky how it kinda snowholes just to the SW of here as well but shows us getting a higher total. 

Prepare the Streetlight of Disappointment. 

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