PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

I feel like a sports fan clinging to the past and talking about the good old days right now but in meteorological terms.

We’re entering the time of year that all we do is bicker about weather preferences and relive the snowy glory days. I usually stick around throughout the year…but I might try and avoid the warm season preference wars this year. 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Every time I look back at my camera roll to February 2019 I’m just mesmerized at the amount of snow we had, especially on the last day when the wet snow just kept piling up.

 

Stickage!

[Andstorm]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Could be a nice little event for Oregon! 

I think most people in the Oregon lowlands are pretty over it after all these marginal close calls that don’t really amount to much. As one of those people, I get it. Plus it’s freaking March. But the pattern this weekend is actually kind of intriguing based on a potential influx of colder air into columbia basin and a low placement that might pull some of that into Portland region. Still doubtful, but can at least see a scenario where a broader area sees accumulating snow at least for a bit than the previous few days. 

[MillCreekMike]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re entering the time of year that all we do is bicker about weather preferences and relive the snowy glory days. I usually stick around throughout the year…but I might try and avoid the warm season preference wars this year. 

It’s gonna be weird seeing things slow down on here so much after the nearly endless model riding we had on here this winter

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I think most people in the Oregon lowlands are pretty over it after all these marginal close calls that don’t really amount to much. As one of those people, I get it. Plus it’s freaking March. But the pattern this weekend is actually kind of intriguing based on a potential influx of colder air into columbia basin and a low placement that might pull some of that into Portland region. Still doubtful, but can at least see a scenario where a broader area sees accumulating snow at least for a bit than the previous few days. 

Welcome Andstorm!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

 

Feb 2019 up my neck of the woods. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

It’s gonna be weird seeing things slow down on here so much after the nearly endless model riding we had on here this winter

Should be wrapped up and slowing down here after the wet non accumulating snowstorm coming Friday night. 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

Feb 2019 up my neck of the woods. 

What a dream! On Redfin's property access tool I've seen some homes in that region sitting around 1500-2000'. The shadowing must be immense, but in the right upsloping situations I bet things get out of control real quick.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

What a dream! On Redfin's property access tool I've seen some homes in that region sitting around 1500-2000'. The shadowing must be immense, but in the right upsloping situations I bet things get out of control real quick.

I'm right at 1000'. The shadowing is annoying as hell, but not as bad as say Port Townsend or Sequim. We have a good upslope event at least once a season that provides anywhere from 6" to 3'

[Seattle]

34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

February 2019 is the only time I've ever seen a foot on the ground here in Seattle. In December 2008 it got up to ~10" at the old Magnolia appartment where my family was living, but I was out of town in Spokane (there it was over two feet!)

Interesting, I certainly has more than a 12" of snow depth in View Ridge back in Dec 2008.

Also came close in Feb 2021, but you seem to have picked up less snow than I had (11"). I guess with compaction it was more like 9.5"-10" depth.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone post the 18z gfs snow maps for tonight and Friday night through sat please

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

Feb 2019 up my neck of the woods. 

By the way, how did that area get the name Little Oklahoma?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Interesting, I certainly has more than a 12" of snow depth in View Ridge back in Dec 2008.

Also came close in Feb 2021, but you seem to have picked up less snow than I had (11"). I guess with compaction it was more like 9.5"-10" depth.

I remember seeing 14" in Shoreline in December 1990.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What a dream! On Redfin's property access tool I've seen some homes in that region sitting around 1500-2000'. The shadowing must be immense, but in the right upsloping situations I bet things get out of control real quick.

Lake Dawn is a nice area. About 1,900' and right by the Hurricane Ridge entrance to Olympic National Park.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone post the 18z gfs snow maps for tonight and Friday night through sat please

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

Feb 2019 up my neck of the woods. 

Looks like you had about the same as me. My max depth was in the 30-36 range depending where I measured. Had 50 inches total in 3 weeks

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

By the way, how did that area get the name Little Oklahoma?

No idea. I only moved here 6 years ago. Everyone I ask looks at me like I am crazy 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Wow friday night is looking like the real deal!!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like you had about the same as me. My max depth was in the 30-36 range depending where I measured. Had 50 inches total in 3 weeks

I hit 32-36" max depth and 58" in ten days I believe. 78" for that whole season. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow friday night is looking like the real deal!!

Surprised to see the models are sticking to their guns on snow near the sound too…though I wouldn’t be surprised if totals get sliced near the Puget sound over the next 48 hours. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Lake Dawn is a nice area. About 1,900' and right by the Hurricane Ridge entrance to Olympic National Park.

I looked at a nice A frame house on that lake a few years ago. I bet they get hammered more than I do. Less shadowing as you go west

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Surprised to see the models are sticking to their guns on snow near the sound too…though I wouldn’t be surprised if totals get sliced near the Puget sound over the next 48 hours. 

Might be the last real chance for the lowlands. I still think friday night could be the biggest event of the season out here or close. 

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone post the 18z gfs snow maps for tonight and Friday night through sat please

 

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

So am I looking at that correctly that the Euro gives me more snow than the GFS??? That’s rare. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

So am I looking at that correctly that the Euro gives me more snow than the GFS??? That’s rare. 

I think so.   

But those maps are the specific 24-hour periods requested.   Your big c-zone snow comes on Friday morning and unfortunately the goofy GFS puts it farther north.   The ECMWF has been very consistent and it will actually be over your area.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think so.   

But those maps are the specific 24-hour periods requested.   Your big c-zone snow comes on Friday morning and unfortunately the goofy GFS puts it farther north.   The ECMWF has been very consistent and it will actually be over your area.

Ahhh gotcha thanks!! 

[MillCreekMike]

https://twitter.com/attractfaction/status/1631048489462534144?s=21

Graupel in Disneyland! A very rare sight.

[Meatyorologist]

Flagstaff is having a dawg of a winter, especially this last month. Going back to November, all months have been either cooler than normal, snowier than normal, or both. (T.anom/precip/snow)

Nov: -2.9F/1.09"/3.5"

Dec: 1.9F/2.33"/20.6"

Jan: -4.0F/5.87"/61.4"

Feb: -5.6F/3.12"/33.4"

[MossMan]

50 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

It’s gonna be weird seeing things slow down on here so much after the nearly endless model riding we had on here this winter

Yeah it will be back to Colorful yard and playing on the water pics! I know a few posters who are super excited for that!!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

27 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

No idea. I only moved here 6 years ago. Everyone I ask looks at me like I am crazy 

It’s awesome to have a poster from your area! I always knew your area did well and those photos are awesome!

[MillCreekMike]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it will be back to Colorful yard and playing on the water pics! I know a few posters who are super excited for that!!! 

In summer I’ll be looking forward to the first “wet deck” picture after the inevitable weeks long dry streak

[MossMan]

It’s like I live in a different world. Coming back from Wenatchee and hitting I-5 in Everett it was 48 degrees. By the time I take my exit in north Stanwood it was 38 degrees with snow on the ground still. The fresh snow that fell this morning is still protected under my truck from when I parked it at 6:45am! 

[ShawniganLake]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

3-4” here tonight. Seems unlikely. 

[jakerepp]

Big storm rolling in today down here.

Check out the live cam from Flagstaff!

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, Andstorm said:

I think most people in the Oregon lowlands are pretty over it after all these marginal close calls that don’t really amount to much. As one of those people, I get it. Plus it’s freaking March. But the pattern this weekend is actually kind of intriguing based on a potential influx of colder air into columbia basin and a low placement that might pull some of that into Portland region. Still doubtful, but can at least see a scenario where a broader area sees accumulating snow at least for a bit than the previous few days. 

You've got a lot of weenies out there today for someone with a lot of snow, Rubus.

[Deweydog]

In case anyone was doubting the power of blowing up the PV…

[MossMan]

Was such a perfect day for pass travel! Tomorrow might be slightly different. 

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Flagstaff is having a dawg of a winter, especially this last month. Going back to November, all months have been either cooler than normal, snowier than normal, or both. (T.anom/precip/snow)

Nov: -2.9F/1.09"/3.5"

Dec: 1.9F/2.33"/20.6"

Jan: -4.0F/5.87"/61.4"

Feb: -5.6F/3.12"/33.4"

Helluva stretch for pretty much the entire West.

[Meatyorologist]

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

Just need that precip to move just a few more miles to the east! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

 

A few of my shots of the aurora on Sunday night. Was a hell of a storm and I got lucky enough to get a clear night! Wasnt much fun freezing my butt off in the 23 degrees though. 

[T-Town]

26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

Crap. I’m getting suckered in again. 

[Cold Snap]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saturday morning gradients+winds turn offshore again and a shortwave retrogrades into the Sound and stalls. This could be a decent setup, maybe a few inches if all goes right.

Yes, marginal situations have been more 'miss' than 'hit' this winter, but since when did marginal snow events become in any way reliable? As far as I'm concerned, for locations like mine that are low in elevation within Seattle and often just south of the PSCZ, this winter has panned out pretty much as you would expect, maybe a bit on the unlucky side. Our busts this winter have been more related to climo tendencies and erroneous model outputs than heartbreaking jogs to the north or south. Hence why I'm not too mad about our underperformances. 2013-2018 gave me some real good patience too....

The way I see it, Saturday morning is just another roll of the dice. Let's hope it works out.

It would be nice to squeak out one more event for the lowlands even if it’s just an inch or two. Especially at SEA because then that would make it 5 straight months with measurable snow there.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF for Friday night and Saturday morning

[joelgombiner]

For Seattle... GFS has 925's bottoming at 4 AM Friday morning to -3 C with some light precip. 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF for Friday night and Saturday morning

Is my Friday AM still on? 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is my Friday AM still on? 

Of course!

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOM

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF for Friday night and Saturday morning

Upped our totals from the last run. Seems kinda funky how it kinda snowholes just to the SW of here as well but shows us getting a higher total. 

[TacomaWx]

46/27 here today. 27 is pretty cold for early March…coldest March low since we hit 26 in 2019. Haven’t managed a low below 26 in the 2005-2022 records. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM

too bad those might be the conditions if the ground wasn't too warm and saturated from rain