PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

Love the Coop!

[Snownerd3000]

Explain like I'm 5

[Winterdog]

Sitting at 36F after a low of 26F and a high of 41F.  Still have close to 3" of snow pretty much everywhere.  February ended up with an average temp of 38.1F, 6.78" precip and 6" of snow, and 14 sub-freezing lows.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Explain like I'm 5

Red splotches are warm, blue splotches are cold. For a more in-depth explanation give Phil a call. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Red splotches are warm, blue splotches are cold. For a post full of acronyms that will leave you even more confused than before give Phil a call. 

FTFY.

[MossMan]

 

[umadbro]

Snow shower right now. Flakes are just melting about 1000’ above me.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Red splotches are warm, blue splotches are cold. For a more in-depth explanation give Phil a call. 

So my understanding is that the big red blob at the bottom indicates a complete trade wind reversal coming up... its the opposite of what has been happening for the last year.    I don't understand the mechanics but I am certain it means we are rapidly heading towards a Nino.    And our 3-year Nina is officially dead.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Could I trouble you for a close up of western Washington 

[gusky]

This may have been asked before, but anyone else going to the Puget Sound AMS meeting in Woodinville tomorrow? American Meteorological Society – Puget Sound Chapter – A group welcoming weather professionals, enthusiasts, and those with an interest in science in Western Washington. (wordpress.com)

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So my understanding is that the big red blob at the bottom indicates a complete trade wind reversal coming up... its the opposite of what has been happening for the last year.    I don't understand the mechanics but I am certain it means we are rapidly heading towards a Nino.    And our 3-year Nina is officially dead.  

We could be headed towards a raging El Niño! Hopefully we can have an epic November before things turn boring for the rest of the winter. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON and GEM are definitely not on board.  

[umadbro]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

No

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We could be headed towards a raging El Niño! Hopefully we can have an epic November before things turn boring for the rest of the winter. 

Could be. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

925s still look to support some frozen precip possibilities tonight...

[Christensen87]

Ugh imagine if this storm coming in now was all snow for the lowlands. Up to 2 feet above 1000 feet, low snow levels at least. Does that mean you, Tim?

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could be. 

 

I have a feeling if it’s a super nino January is going to be so cursed to the point where SEA scores a 70 burger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Outstanding. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Could I trouble you for a close up of western Washington 

The NAM doesn’t do close ups unfortunately 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Ugh imagine if this storm coming in now was all snow for the lowlands. Up to 2 feet above 1000 feet, low snow levels at least. Does that mean you, Tim?

ECMWF only shows about .20 of precip here through tomorrow morning.    Might be hard to get 24 inches of snow with .20 in precip.  

[Weiner Warrior]

Just dropped to 37 degrees with DP of 34. Rain is just down the street.. it needs to drop 5 more degrees please

[umadbro]

27 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

3km

[Doinko]

Just now, umadbro said:

3km

That's because a lot of it falls in the hour 60-84 range. Doesn't mean the NAM is right of course but this map is a bit behind when the snow it shows falls.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, umadbro said:

3km

I’m in the blue!

[Blizzard777]

33 minutes ago, gusky said:

This may have been asked before, but anyone else going to the Puget Sound AMS meeting in Woodinville tomorrow? American Meteorological Society – Puget Sound Chapter – A group welcoming weather professionals, enthusiasts, and those with an interest in science in Western Washington. (wordpress.com)

Sad, I would of went but I’m booked  

[Cascadia_Wx]

45/31 day today. Pretty wintery for the first day of March. Morning fog then afternoon sunbreaks, high clouds moved in late.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Can report I am now getting some mixed precip here.

Light rain mixed with drizzle and mist.

[Andstorm]

28 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling if it’s a super nino January is going to be so cursed to the point where SEA scores a 70 burger.

If there is a silver lining, El niño cycles tend to be pretty short. No triple dip El Niños. Rarely two in a row. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

If there is a silver lining, El niño cycles tend to be pretty short. No triple dip El Niños. Rarely two in a row. 

El Niño a cometh. This almost looks 1997-ish with how far east those westerly anomalies are.

Big time stuff, verbatim. Whether it lasts long enough to produce an El Niño is still debatable, but this is easily one of the highest amplitude unfiltered phase-8 orbits on record.

[Cascadia_Wx]

33 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling if it’s a super nino January is going to be so cursed to the point where SEA scores a 70 burger.

70 is probably close to physically impossible for the western lowlands in January. Even a massive ridge with warm to very warm upper levels would produce an inversion at the surface. January 2009 had a good example of this.

In order for it to even be close it would have to be an active pattern with a dynamic warm front lifting north over the area and mixing things out with  SSW winds and a warm subtropical airmass in its wake, maybe even some sunbreaks. That kind of setup pushed PDX to its January record of 66 in 2005. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

El Niño a cometh. This almost looks 1997-ish with how far east those westerly anomalies are.

Big time stuff, verbatim.

Super Niños have had some good stuff for us before. 1972/1973 had the major arctic blast in December then a smaller one in January. 1997/1998 gave us a snowstorm in January. 2015/2016 was at least very wet in December and there was some cold in late November and early January, not a total boring winter. 1982/1983 and 1957/58 were terrible though

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

70 is probably close to physically impossible for the western lowlands in January. Even a massive ridge with warm to very warm upper levels would produce an inversion at the surface. January 2009 had a good example of this.

In order for it to even be close it would have to be an active pattern with a dynamic warm front lifting north over the area and mixing things out with  SSW winds and a warm subtropical airmass in its wake, maybe even some sunbreaks. That kind of setup pushed PDX to its January record of 66 in 2005. 

Pretty crazy that Laurel Mountain at 3600' hit 78 degrees that month above the inversion. And that was with a 15" snow depth at the same time

[Phil]

The SSW definitely did its job w/rt MC invigoration. Complete (intraseasonal) destruction of the low frequency/niña background circulation in the tropics.

Upcoming phase-8 MJO is absolutely bonkers.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Explain like I'm 5

Lol I got ninja’d. Didn’t even see this.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

So my understanding is that the big red blob at the bottom indicates a complete trade wind reversal coming up... its the opposite of what has been happening for the last year.    I don't understand the mechanics but I am certain it means we are rapidly heading towards a Nino.    And our 3-year Nina is officially dead.  

Way too soon to be calling for a Nino.  Neural is still very much on the table.  Historically speaking we haven't had a Nino in the modern era when the MEI and ENSO is still this low this deep into the year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Pretty crazy that Laurel Mountain at 3600' hit 78 degrees that month above the inversion. And that was with a 15" snow depth at the same time

That was a January mega ridge. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSW definitely did its job w/rt MC invigoration. Complete (intraseasonal) destruction of the low frequency/niña background circulation in the tropics.

Upcoming phase-8 MJO is absolutely bonkers.

 

The big question is what will happen after the big wave in 8.

[Doinko]

Some really cold lows in South Central OR this morning. Klamath Marsh RAWS got down to -12f. US97 NB at Sand Creek got down to -18f

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

70 is probably close to physically impossible for the western lowlands in January. Even a massive ridge with warm to very warm upper levels would produce an inversion at the surface. January 2009 had a good example of this.

In order for it to even be close it would have to be an active pattern with a dynamic warm front lifting north over the area and mixing things out with  SSW winds and a warm subtropical airmass in its wake, maybe even some sunbreaks. That kind of setup pushed PDX to its January record of 66 in 2005. 

Pffft, 70˚F in January is a smaller positive departure than is 113˚F in June.

Easily achievable in our new climate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just had a light mixed shower! Temp is 34.5 dewpoint 33.0. It will snow here tonight.

 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The big question is what will happen after the big wave in 8.

Will probably re-enter the IO but damage will probably be done by that point. Downwelling OKW will have been triggered and base state likely won’t return with the same vigor (talking about the tropics, not your backyard).

Timing of -QBO descent also fits w/ increasingly +ENSO theme as the year rolls on. Neutral/warm neutral is probably the coolest possible ENSO next winter, IMO.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way too soon to be calling for a Nino.  Neural is still very much on the table.  Historically speaking we haven't had a Nino in the modern era when the MEI and ENSO is still this low this deep into the year.

I would love to avoid a strong Nino.   Warm neutral would be great.  

[MillCreekMike]

Breezy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time to think about Rosby Waves. 

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting the GFS is showing pretty much the same thing Saturday night that the ECMWF has been showing Friday night for lowland snow potential.  Little question there will be a serious threat of lowland snow sometime in the Friday to Sunday time frame.  How that low digs off the coast is going to be crucial for placement.

On another note...Arctic air over BC comes dangerously close to entering northern WA this weekend.  Decent chance there will be some bleeding of cold air into the North Interior as surface gradients become N to NE over at least the northern half of the state.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some really cold lows in South Central OR this morning. Klamath Marsh RAWS got down to -12f. US97 NB at Sand Creek got down to -18f

And not even a real Arctic outbreak.  Impressive.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would love to avoid a strong Nino.   Warm neutral would be great.  

Yes indeed.  I think warm neutral is actually one of the best ENSO states for giving a high chance of a relatively enjoyable winter.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting the GFS is showing pretty much the same thing Saturday night that the ECMWF has been showing Friday night for lowland snow potential.  Little question there will be a serious threat of lowland snow sometime in the Friday to Sunday time frame.  How that low digs off the coast is going to be crucial for placement.

On another note...Arctic air over BC comes dangerously close to entering northern WA this weekend.  Decent chance there will be some bleeding of cold air into the North Interior as surface gradients become N to NE over at least the northern half of the state.

This looks pretty great if it was earlier, multiple systems overriding the cold air. Just a bit too warm

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Will probably re-enter the IO but damage will probably be done by that point. Downwelling OKW will have been triggered and base state likely won’t return with the same vigor (talking about the tropics, not your backyard).

Timing of -QBO descent also fits w/ increasingly +ENSO theme as the year rolls on. Neutral/warm neutral is probably the coolest possible ENSO next winter, IMO.

An interesting thing to watch will be if we have a mid year ENSO spike and then some falling back after that.  We have seen that theme very often in recent years.