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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Surprisingly 2011-2012 is the coldest Nov-Feb there this century. For PDX, 2013/2014 and 2016/2017 are the coldest this century. 2016/2017 is surprising because that November was a huge torch, DJF were just very cold.

According to the numbers I'm looking at SEA came in just a tad colder this Nov - Feb than 2011-12, but it's way closer than I would have expected.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think it would have gone lower but it clouded up and snowed early this morning. 

Good reason to not get quite as cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'd probably give this winter a B+ because of the really great late Feb blast here. First we had the cold November, then the cool December with arctic blast toward the end. Experiencing that in Denver was really amazing. Then we had the small cold wave in late January, some snow in mid February and then of course the snowstorm in late February. That snowstorm was really amazing, a full on blizzard at times, with a subfreezing high and ground blizzard, which is incredible especially for late February. Last few days have been nice with snow in the air at times.

Not a crazy amount of snow total, only around 7-9" I'm guessing but most of it fell in a great storm.

I can’t really do a grade until at least we get well into March. If March is decent it’s an A-. Not sure I can give it a solid A until we get a better January. Though we did actually score a really cold January low. Depending on how March goes this one could give 2016-17 a run, if not just for the snow, as we are already ahead of 16-17’. Also that cold snap last week was legit up here. 5 sub freezing highs in February is a big deal, but we only had one for the winter coming into this month… 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can’t really do a grade until at least we get well into March. If March is decent it’s an A-. Not sure I can give it a solid A until we get a better January. Though we did actually score a really cold January low. Depending on how March goes this one could give 2016-17 a run, if not just for the snow, as we are already ahead of 16-17’. Also that cold snap last week was legit up here. 5 sub freezing highs in February is a big deal, but we only had one for the winter coming into this month… 

February was really amazing this year. The best Februarys here in the past 10 years have probably been 2014, 2023, 2021, 2018 and 2019.

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Red splotches are warm, blue splotches are cold. For a more in-depth explanation give Phil a call. 

So my understanding is that the big red blob at the bottom indicates a complete trade wind reversal coming up... its the opposite of what has been happening for the last year.    I don't understand the mechanics but I am certain it means we are rapidly heading towards a Nino.    And our 3-year Nina is officially dead.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So my understanding is that the big red blob at the bottom indicates a complete trade wind reversal coming up... its the opposite of what has been happening for the last year.    I don't understand the mechanics but I am certain it means we are rapidly heading towards a Nino.    And our 3-year Nina is officially dead.  

We could be headed towards a raging El Niño! Hopefully we can have an epic November before things turn boring for the rest of the winter. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We could be headed towards a raging El Niño! Hopefully we can have an epic November before things turn boring for the rest of the winter. 

Could be. 

 

20230228.sstOutlooks_nino34.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could be. 

 

20230228.sstOutlooks_nino34.png

I have a feeling if it’s a super nino January is going to be so cursed to the point where SEA scores a 70 burger.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

AF79E9F9-922B-4F89-8A53-666E3F0C71A7.png

Outstanding. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Ugh imagine if this storm coming in now was all snow for the lowlands. Up to 2 feet above 1000 feet, low snow levels at least. Does that mean you, Tim?

ECMWF only shows about .20 of precip here through tomorrow morning.    Might be hard to get 24 inches of snow with .20 in precip.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7780000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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33 minutes ago, gusky said:

Sad, I would of went but I’m booked :( 

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28 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling if it’s a super nino January is going to be so cursed to the point where SEA scores a 70 burger.

If there is a silver lining, El niño cycles tend to be pretty short. No triple dip El Niños. Rarely two in a row. 

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4 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

If there is a silver lining, El niño cycles tend to be pretty short. No triple dip El Niños. Rarely two in a row. 

El Niño a cometh. This almost looks 1997-ish with how far east those westerly anomalies are.

Big time stuff, verbatim. Whether it lasts long enough to produce an El Niño is still debatable, but this is easily one of the highest amplitude unfiltered phase-8 orbits on record.

FA69BAA0-96D6-4A08-B739-0EFF853E7AA4.jpeg

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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33 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling if it’s a super nino January is going to be so cursed to the point where SEA scores a 70 burger.

70 is probably close to physically impossible for the western lowlands in January. Even a massive ridge with warm to very warm upper levels would produce an inversion at the surface. January 2009 had a good example of this.

In order for it to even be close it would have to be an active pattern with a dynamic warm front lifting north over the area and mixing things out with  SSW winds and a warm subtropical airmass in its wake, maybe even some sunbreaks. That kind of setup pushed PDX to its January record of 66 in 2005. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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