PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Euro coming to its senses.  2-3" melt by afternoon Friday

You live in a climate some west side posters would give their left thumb to spend a season in.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS actually looked fairly balmy after the ides.

[TT-SEA]

No change on the 12Z EPS

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You live in a climate some west side posters would give their left thumb to spend a season in.

It’s a mystery to me why some people here haven’t moved to Spokane already. Or at least tried to.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the 12z Euro/EPS want to drop another trough on us right around the time the GFS is trying to build a ridge.

[MossMan]

53! First 50’s in a while. 

[DareDuck]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I find the argument that snow pack and water supply play no role in the following fire season so ignorant and aggravating.

This conversation happens every year. Summer weather and more specifically June are what drive fire season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the 12z Euro/EPS want to drop another trough on us right around the time the GFS is trying to build a ridge.

Looking for some late month blessings. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 39 and sunny. 

[Blizzard777]

Looks like some hail or mixed precipitation showers drifting off the Cascades!!! Beautiful out here!  Tacoma looking north currently 

[Slushy Inch]

Druncle outdoing itself when it comes to phantom snow. Temps are 35-37, seems like GFS thinks 37 is 32.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle outdoing itself when it comes to phantom snow. Temps are 35-37, seems like GFS thinks 37 is 32.

Is there a DP map for that time? 

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle outdoing itself when it comes to phantom snow.

Is this another one of those situations where it all depends on that low placement? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle outdoing itself when it comes to phantom snow. Temps are 35-37, seems like GFS thinks 37 is 32.

Hmmmm

[TT-SEA]

Spring looking sky...

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Is there a DP map for that time? 

This is right before precip starts. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Is this another one of those situations where it all depends on that low placement? 

Unless we already have a very cold airmass low placement is always important.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is there a DP map for that time? 

Looking at 925mb temps, maybe 500 foot snow level? Depends on precip rates.

[TT-SEA]

51 at SEA now.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looking at 925mb temps, maybe 500 foot snow level? Depends on precip rates.

Could definitely see falling snow here looking at the 925’s and the DP’s l…Getting it to stick would be the big feat! 

[Christensen87]

Strong thunderstorms moving up from the SE. 

[Blizzard777]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Spring looking sky...

Exactly how it feels this storm drifting towards to

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Strong thunderstorms moving up from the SE. 

Awesome shot

[bainbridgekid]

44 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle outdoing itself when it comes to phantom snow. Temps are 35-37, seems like GFS thinks 37 is 32.

The fact this map is for 1 PM is particularly egregious. Weatherbell precip type maps are WAY too generous unfortunately to the point of absurdity.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Someone's having a great day with thunderstorms in the Tacoma area 🌩

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

The fact this map is for 1 PM is particularly egregious. Weatherbell precip type maps are WAY too generous unfortunately to the point of absurdity.

No doubt.   That map shows it is snowing across almost every square inch of WA state in the early afternoon on March 10th.   

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Ken in Wood Village said:

Someone's having a great day with thunderstorms in the Tacoma area 🌩

First true spring convection... the higher sun angle is doing its thing.

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt.   That map shows it is snowing across almost every square inch of WA state in the early afternoon on March 10th.   

Miracles can happen. 

[Phil]

 

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like the 12z Euro/EPS want to drop another trough on us right around the time the GFS is trying to build a ridge.

The GFS is wrong.

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt.   That map shows it is snowing across almost every square inch of WA state in the early afternoon on March 10th.   

The GFS is wrong.

[T-Town]

Just some sprinkles here so far but it has that convective look.  

[the_convergence_zone]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

51 at SEA now.

Closest we've gotten to the normal high in a while. Looks like 52 is the most likely max. 

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The fact this map is for 1 PM is particularly egregious. Weatherbell precip type maps are WAY too generous unfortunately to the point of absurdity.

It’s GFS model not weatherbell.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s GFS model not weatherbell.

Oh wait you’re right it is weatherbell. And this is a paid subscription.

[Slushy Inch]

15 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Someone's having a great day with thunderstorms in the Tacoma area 🌩

Looks like one storm got to 30th thousand feet briefly.

[Blizzard777]

And we have thunder and lightning

[SnowySeeker50]

Wooo lightning and thunder!

[Christensen87]

Auburn getting crushed. Just passing to my south 

[SnowySeeker50]

Missing the main band just slightly too far north from me by about half mile.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, DareDuck said:

This conversation happens every year. Summer weather and more specifically June are what drive fire season.

Yep, almost all of the wildfire ignitions occur on a handful of days every summer -- usually when there is elevated convection with a ton of lightning. Then they smolder and wait for an offshore wind event while the firefighters try to squash as many of the baby fires as they can before the next windy/dry day. In the September fires the offshore winds can do both the triggering and the blow up, but often they are blowing up old lightning strikes from whatever elevated convection day we had in back July or August. 

Somewhat counter-intuitively, wet spring conditions are somewhat correlated with worse fire seasons because of the extra fuel buildup which dries out in summer. Especially in grassy places like eastern WA. 

I believe water and snowpack do have a bit of say over the length of the 'window' of dry season length, but if you're using an 'acres burned' metric like most do, it comes down to weather patterns. Even a wet June won't save you. I saw a talk once that was focused on Idaho showing that the lag between snowpack melt out and extreme fire danger could be as little as 2-3 weeks. So by the time you get to late July, it doesn't matter when you melted out in most places. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

46 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Auburn getting crushed. Just passing to my south 

Loud thunder and lightning! Only 2-4 miles away from me according to my weather station. Wow!!

Edited March 7, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty