PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Deweydog]

Pray for me as I hit the road!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pray for me as I hit the road!

Many prayers 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has been scaling back snow for Friday with each run and the 12Z run continues this trend.   It appears that the track of the low moving inland has been shifting a little further south.    There is not even that much precip being shown in western WA now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could see 1000’ snow levels middle of next week. That period has been trending colder. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been scaling back snow for Friday with each run and the 12Z run continues this trend.   It appears that the track of the low moving inland has been shifting a little further south.    There is not even that much precip being shown in western WA now.  

Even the 12z GFS was a major setback. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could see 1000’ snow levels middle of next week. That period has been trending colder. 

In the meantime... you might have your first significant melting day on Saturday with plenty of sun and highs maybe getting close to 50 in your area?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

In the meantime... you might have your first significant melting day on Saturday with plenty of sun and highs maybe getting close to 50 in your area?

We should get a lot of rain tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should get a lot of rain tomorrow. 

Ahhh... was not sure about snow levels down there tomorrow.   Its going to be basically dry up here with offshore flow.

Not too much precip being shown during the day tomorrow even down there on the 12Z ECMWF... but 925mb temps definitely support rain.

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Too warm to stick to much here but looks really nice outside

We’re right on the cusp here. Starts sticking pretty well with heavy enough precip rates but once it lightens up at all things turn slushy pretty quick. Sun angles are starting to creep up for the day too. Still a very pretty morning visually.

[FroYoBro]

Lots of pretty snowflakes falling this morning as I’ve been working around town. Seems to be stopping now and never really stuck in the low spots, but I saw some brief sticking up at Capitol Hill. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really weak reach. Culver Josh would have been a way funnier choice.

Oh it's just some friendly banter. I actually have no idea what you look like.

Besides, I think the CulverJosh comparison would be a bit more derivative...

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Had a low of 30. 

That second dip is obvious on EPS. Cool spring continues.

[Slushy Inch]

March 23rd 2018, Woodinville WA. Latest snowfall video. Convergence zone gave Seattle thunder snow.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Oh it's just some friendly banter. I actually have no idea what you look like.

Besides, I think the CulverJosh comparison would be a bit more derivative...

I posted a selfie just last month

[Cascadia_Wx]

Dumping again now. Solid trace or more.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

That second dip is obvious on EPS. Cool spring continues.

Yeah it’s not over yet. I wouldn’t be overly shocked to see another accumulating snow event at some point this month. 

[Sandy rocks]

Seems to be stopping. Had about 2". Starting to melt now. I think I will take a walk in the woods this morning, it's always beautiful when it snows.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it’s not over yet. I wouldn’t be overly shocked to see another accumulating snow event at some point this month. 

Going to require a strong convergence zone for anything significant.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm at ilani and it's dumping snow here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Best stickage of the day here now. Not what I expected for almost 11am. Solid 1/4” out there and still coming down.

[Phil]

Literally off the charts.

 

[Phil]

Excellent news.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh... was not sure about snow levels down there tomorrow.   Its going to be basically dry up here with offshore flow.

Not too much precip being shown during the day tomorrow even down there on the 12Z ECMWF... but 925mb temps definitely support rain.

I’m expecting bare ground by Monday. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Literally off the charts.

 

I’ve yet to see much of warm signal out west, which is associated with phase 8, right?

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Literally off the charts.

 

how is this being manifested in actual weather right now being extreme? The CA precip? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Excellent news.

Bad news. Long term drought being mitigated could mean a very bad fire season. Don’t want green trees and plants thriving in a lush and water filled landscape. Just more stuff to burn. Let’s just hope the entire west turns into a wasteland of lifeless dirt and rocks, then no more fire season  

Edited March 8, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Bad news. Long term drought being mitigated could mean a very bad fire season. Don’t want green trees and plants thriving in a lush and water filled landscape. Just more stuff to burn. Let’s just hope the entire west turns into a wasteland of lifeless dirt and rocks, then no more fire season  

That only goes for grass lands.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Back edge has moved through, snow has stopped here and things are slowly melting. That was a really nice couple hours though. Big gorgeous flakes, nice to have them falling in daylight too. I’ll call it 1/4” of accumulation. 34 degrees and slowly climbing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

That only goes for grass lands.

You’re absolutely right. Seems like a few here have extrapolated it to mean the entire forested west though.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Pray for me as I hit the road!

Hey. Could you make it possible to receive PMs? Just for the time being.

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’ve yet to see much of warm signal out west, which is associated with phase 8, right?

Not necessarily. Depends on the time of year and in-situ base state(s). In Sep/Oct, for instance, phase-8 is a cold signal in the West, but that correlation inverts by Dec/Jan.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Not necessarily. Depends on the time of year and in-situ base state(s). In Sep/Oct, for instance, phase-8 is a cold signal in the West, but that correlation inverts by Jan/Feb.

Where do you see the pattern going for us moving later into the Spring Phil?

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Where do you see the pattern going for us moving later into the Spring Phil?

Similar to current pattern into mid-April, then a NE-Pacific ridge tendency mid/late April into May, which could set up close to the west coast and would be drier and warmer relative to climo (though would expect some ULL activity in the SW US with that pattern).

However, the reduced 4CH influence should become increasingly apparent as we head into the summer months, and below climo 500mb heights in the SW may expand to much of the interior West (reduced seasonality w/ respect to mean 4CH development).

In summary, suspect the outcome will be lot closer to 2019 or possibly 1997, mild but relatively moist. If +ENSO development stutters mid/late summer, the closest recent analog would be 2012, but so far haven’t seen much in common with that year.

[Phil]

Southwest US looks to continue doing well on the 12z EPS. Early indications of what the low frequency state may reflect in 2023.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Phil said:

Southwest US looks to continue doing well on the 12z EPS. Early indications of what the low frequency state may reflect in 2023.

By weatherbell subscription is over. New EPS weeklies should be out soon, right?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

By weatherbell subscription is over. New EPS weeklies should be out soon, right?

Tomorrow afternoon (tonight’s 00z EPS run, technically). Latest release was Monday, so still relatively recent.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Southwest US looks to continue doing well on the 12z EPS. Early indications of what the low frequency state may reflect in 2023.

So.... we are never going to warm up. My poor mason bees. 

[RentonHill]

1972 shows up 3 times

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

So.... we are never going to warm up. My poor mason bees. 

Kind of how it felt last June-October when it was never going to cool down. That period will still end up being way more anomalous than this one. We would have basically needed a January 1950 start to the year to be on the same level.

[Cascadia_Wx]

It may come as a shock to everyone, and will probably be thrown back in my face at some point, but I’m gonna go ahead and say it. I’m looking forward to the first sunny day in the 60s.  

Although I’m definitely not sweating it too much, since I’m sure there will come a time where we once again get way more warmth than we bargained for at some point this year.