PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Deweydog]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure. Some things definitely changed with the update last year. I’m not sure if it’s the case for anyone else but I have no ability to delete posts, for instance.

Anyway here’s how the PM access looks on my end, at least on mobile. The mail shaped icon opens it up.

 

Yeah no envelope for me.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The delete option doesn’t pop up at the bottom of the screen when selecting a message in the inbox?

I can delete PMs. Not regular posts though.

[Olive1010]

What are some good thunderstorm setups for willamete valley

[ShawniganLake]

Getting my first requests of the year to begin lawn mowing contracts.  Spring has sprung.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Getting my first requests of the year to begin lawn mowing contracts.  Spring has sprung.   

The GFS and NAM seem to think you'll be mowing some snow covered lawns Friday morning. Not generally supported by other models though.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The GFS and NAM seem to think you'll be mowing some snow covered lawns Friday morning. Not generally supported by other models though.

Yea. It’ll probably snow up here Friday morning if there is much precip.  We still have snow on the ground here, especially in the shady areas.  But most of my work is in Duncan, Maple bay and Victoria and they had way less snow in those areas. 

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS is going for PNA, EPO, and NAO all minus as we get into week 2.  Very likely going to yield more freezing mins for the lowlands.  I'll be at 68 if it freezes tomorrow morning.

Usually I beat you in this category but as of now you are one ahead of my 66 total to date.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh my… 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, OR just hit 6 on a 5 min observation. If that stands it is a new record low breaking the previous record of 7 from 1985.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh my… 

I’m in the green! 

[Doinko]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It stands at 63.7". 

If we can make it to 75", I will have to move this winter ahead of 2016-17 as the best since I have lived here... That winter had some really satisfying heart of the winter action, but this winter had our coldest November since I've been here, snowiest November, 2nd coldest February, 2nd snowiest February, already closing in on 2nd snowiest March... It's just been a great run. Our mean temp through the first 8 days of March has been 32.8, obviously that will go up significantly by the end of the month, but we have a great shot at a sub-40 March mean, which has only been done 12 times since 1938, and if we have something below 39 for the month then we are in top 5 territory. Still a long way to go. 

Definitely a great winter here. Waking up to this on 2/23 after a blizzard overnight was wonderful.
 


 

[AlTahoe]

We got 5" of dry snow today and this happened. does not bode well for the 6" rain incoming. The nervous energy in town is very Palpable 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

We got 5" of dry snow today and this happened. does not bode well for the 6" rain incoming. The nervous energy in town is very Palpable 

Yikes! Just the beginning I’m afraid. 

[Doinko]

Looking at a station nearby, the temps the December and February cold snaps put up were pretty amazing:

12/21: 42/23 (19 degree temp drop in 8.5 hrs with strong east winds)
12/22: 23/20
12/24: 29/20
12/25: 43/29

2/22: 37/29
2/23: 30/24
2/24: 39/22
2/25: 45/17

Late January got down to 21 degrees as well.
 

[lowlandsnow]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It stands at 63.7". 

If we can make it to 75", I will have to move this winter ahead of 2016-17 as the best since I have lived here... That winter had some really satisfying heart of the winter action, but this winter had our coldest November since I've been here, snowiest November, 2nd coldest February, 2nd snowiest February, already closing in on 2nd snowiest March... It's just been a great run. Our mean temp through the first 8 days of March has been 32.8, obviously that will go up significantly by the end of the month, but we have a great shot at a sub-40 March mean, which has only been done 12 times since 1938, and if we have something below 39 for the month then we are in top 5 territory. Still a long way to go. 

Have you not updated your precip total for this year of has it been the lowest on record by far?

[lowlandsnow]

19 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We got 5" of dry snow today and this happened. does not bode well for the 6" rain incoming. The nervous energy in town is very Palpable 

How much snow is on the ground/roofs there?

[ShawniganLake]

It’s been a very snowy winter on the outer coast of Vancouver Island. 
 

32” at Ucluelet

 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been a very snowy winter on the outer coast of Vancouver Island. 
 

32” at Ucluelet

 

 

YYJ being snowier than Comox and Abbotsford is pretty rare.

[LowerGarfield]

..10 of snow tonight. Just measurable. Of course not much but I still enjoy recording it 

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Winterdog said:

Usually I beat you in this category but as of now you are one ahead of my 66 total to date.

I've been lucky this year.  Very few nights that east winds have messed up the low temps and a lot of clear nights with cold air in place.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We got 5" of dry snow today and this happened. does not bode well for the 6" rain incoming. The nervous energy in town is very Palpable 

Too much of a good thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Have you not updated your precip total for this year of has it been the lowest on record by far?

I have not updated it. It is below average, but I would estimate probably upper 30s as of today, average would be around 50”  for this point in the water year. 

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 33.8 tonight.  Going to be icy in the morning.

A couple of mornings ago it was really bad here with upside down cars and the whole 9 yards.  Nothing more dangerous than when some roads freeze and some don't right after it rains.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really chilly day here. 43/31 spread with 1/4” of morning snow. Great convective looking sky in the afternoon. Did a nearby hike up Green Mountain north of Camas (800’) for the sunset.

 

[snow_wizard]

The longer range GFS shows surface pressure gradients resuming a fairly Ninaish look over the Pacific.  I'm far from sold on a Nino.  This might be another year with a mid year spike followed by a drop in the autumn.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Already down to 33.8 tonight.  Going to be icy in the morning.

A couple of mornings ago it was really bad here with upside down cars and the whole 9 yards.  Nothing more dangerous than when some roads freeze and some don't right after it rains.

Won't be an issue in my area as roads are totally here with no precip all day.   ECMWF shows temps holding mostly in the low 30s and then rising a little before dawn as clouds are moving up from the south now.   But even slightly above freezing in the morning can be a problem if ice formed earlier.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The longer range GFS shows surface pressure gradients resuming a fairly Ninaish look over the Pacific.  I'm far from sold on a Nino.  This might be another year with a mid year spike followed by a drop in the autumn.

I wouldn't count on the long range GFS at 384 hours being right... or being able to determine if a Nino will be in place by summer.   

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really chilly day here. 43/31 spread with 1/4” of morning snow. Great convective looking sky in the afternoon. Did a nearby hike up Green Mountain north of Camas (800’) for the sunset.

A solid cold day for a lot of places.  My month to date average is 38.9 which is highly impressive this deep into March.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I wouldn't count on the long range GFS at 384 hours being right... or being able to determine if a Nino will be in place by summer.   

I agree.  I'm just looking for arrangement of the surface pressure anomalies right now.  A lot simpler than all of the fancy stuff Phil looks at.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  I'm just looking for arrangement of the surface pressure anomalies right now.  A lot simpler than all of the fancy stuff Phil looks at.

Phil thinks 2019 is a good match so we might be at a turning point soon.   That March ended up warmer than normal despite a very cold start and then every month was warmer than normal at SEA until October.   I have no idea what to expect but I assume April and May this year will be different and much improved compared to last year.

[Slushy Inch]

Can’t see exactly what’s going on because my Weatherbell is over. But looks cool and active. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Can’t see exactly what’s going on because my Weatherbell is over. But looks cool and active. 

All day rain that day per the ECMWF... highs in the mid 40s to low 50s with a decently strong SSW wind across most of western WA and OR.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All day rain that day per the ECMWF... highs in the mid 40s to low 50s with a decently strong SSW wind across most of western WA and OR.

Could have guessed.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The longer range GFS shows surface pressure gradients resuming a fairly Ninaish look over the Pacific.  I'm far from sold on a Nino.  This might be another year with a mid year spike followed by a drop in the autumn.

La Niña is dead and gone, and a cold ENSO outcome is increasingly unlikely. Question is whether the transition is rapid/into full blown El Niño, or slow/halts around neutral/warm neutral.

[Slushy Inch]

Woah positive 850 mb anomalies! Same ridge on GEFS. Very transitory though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We shall see how it plays out.

Stage two: bargaining.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been a very snowy winter on the outer coast of Vancouver Island. 
 

32” at Ucluelet

 

Wow, Kamloops has really gotten the shaft this winter. I know it’s a pretty dry place (literally sagebrush and cactus country), but still.

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil thinks 2019 is a good match so we might be at a turning point soon.   That March ended up warmer than normal despite a very cold start and then every month was warmer than normal at SEA until October.   I have no idea what to expect but I assume April and May this year will be different and much improved compared to last year.

Certainly possible. Problem is the vast majority of EPAC based El Niño inceptions occurred before the satellite era (it’s more of a cold phase/-PMM phenomenon) so the sample may not be representative of current boundary conditions. Best thing we can do is trim off +ENSO analogs that evolved from the west-central Pacific and add failed EPAC niño attempts to supplement the remaining analog pool.

Anything from 1997, to 2019, 2012, or 2002 could theoretically be included in there. Also plenty of older examples from the 1950s/60s/70s, but am wary of using them.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has quite a few more freezing mins over the next 10 days.  Ensembles say below normal 850s most of the time until further notice.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

La Niña is dead and gone, and a cold ENSO outcome is increasingly unlikely. Question is whether the transition is rapid/into full blown El Niño, or slow/halts around neutral/warm neutral.

I do agree the Nina is probably dead.  I still give it a token 5 to 10 percent chance of pulling off a miracle though.  I think a mid year spike followed by a fall to around zero for next season.