PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

We get that in Tahoe but it is in late May to early June. 

May in Spokane too

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

May in Spokane too

Here as well but some years are more pronounced than others. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we are up to 40 at the house. The streak is over. 

[AlTahoe]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Here as well but some years are more pronounced than others. 

Yeah last year we had that late May snowstorm and had almost no pollen. Other years it looks like the picture that was posted 

[BLI snowman]

Hoping the pattern of energy and moisture focusing southward more into CA continues into the warm season. Great opportunity for warm core convection if lows get hung up in these positions as we enter May/June.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Since the winter of 2017-18 PDX has received more snow in both March and April than January…

It must be my March snow jinx. It never happens IMBY.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Quote

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night: A somewhat uneventful, yet still annoying forecast package goes out this morning. Persistent and cool troughing remains entrenched over the PacNW. A closed low remains centered off the coast with lower than normal 500 mb heights over Salem per the SPC Sounding Archive. Over the period of record dating back to 1946, heights are typically around 556dm on this date, however today, we will remain around the 538dm mark putting us in roughly the 9th percentile of all Salem sounding observations.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hoping the pattern of energy and moisture focusing southward more into CA continues into the warm season. Great opportunity for warm core convection if lows get hung up in these positions as we enter May/June.

Better setup for big time convective outbreaks and deep marine intrusions. They frequently go hand in hand/one will trigger the other.

[MikeInEverett]

Nice early spring day. Party cloudy and 51F. Can see rain showers near the cascades in the distance.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Staying pretty chilly here this afternoon despite quite a few sunbreaks. High of just 46 so far, 45 currently. There is a light east wind that seems to be keeping a lid on temps at least in the immediate Portland area.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Nice early spring day. Party cloudy and 51F. Can see rain showers near the cascades in the distance.

Definitely feels like a spring time convective day with clouds bubbling up and then fading.   We have had a couple brief sun showers here today as well.   Temp peaked at 52 in North Bend but back down to 48 now.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Better setup for big time convective outbreaks and deep marine intrusions. They frequently go hand in hand/one will trigger the other.

Haven't had much of either in recent years. Last spring was technically "thundery" but more from garden variety post-frontal airmasses rather than troughs digging southward offshore.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Haven't had much of either in recent years. Last spring was technically "thundery" but more from garden variety post-frontal airmasses rather than troughs digging southward offshore.

Having any sort of active 500mb wave train during the warm season sounds kind of dreamy. The default the last three summers has been baking under a stagnant NW extension of the four corners heat dome. Especially mid to late summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cool troughing on the 18z GFS. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cool troughing on the 18z GFS. 

Wonder how this will translate to July and August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder how this will translate to July and August.

HAWT

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

HAWT

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really liking these ensembles. Good stuff though about day ten then the means start to drift toward average.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really liking these ensembles. Good stuff though about day ten then the means start to drift toward average.

Some opportunity at times. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some opportunity at times. 

Hopefully you get a lot more snow/lose your snowpack quickly Andrew.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a decent batch of showers is moving up from the SSW toward the Portland area this afternoon.

Ended up with a very cool 47/35 spread today. Morning showers then lots of afternoon sunbreaks. Definitely a more early spring convective look to the sky today even though temps remained winter-like.

PDX kept its sub-50 streak alive as well for the time being, with a 49/36 day there.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a decent batch of showers is moving up from the SSW toward the Portland area this afternoon.

Ended up with a very cool 47/35 spread today. Morning showers then lots of afternoon sunbreaks. Definitely a more early spring convective look to the sky today even though temps remained winter-like.

PDX kept its sub-50 streak alive as well for the time being, with a 49/36 day there.

Hailing now. I wonder how long the streak will last

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hailing now. I wonder how long the streak will last

Looks like Mark has us below 50 until the 11th. Which would beat 2019 by a few days and almost tie 1951. That said, the pattern the next couple days could still pop things up to 50 with some decent sunbreaks. Although at face value the next afternoons have the potential to be a little more active than this one.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like Mark has us below 50 until the 11th. Which would beat 2019 by a few days and almost tie 1951. That said, the pattern the next couple days could still pop things up to 50 with some decent sunbreaks. Although at face value the next afternoons have the potential to be a little more active than this one.

We should easily break the consecutive sub-60 streak. Today is day 122, record is 128 in 1992-1993, though looks like 2012 got close with 126

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

We should easily break the consecutive sub-60 streak. Today is day 122, record is 128 in 1992-1993, though looks like 2012 got close with 126

Good to know. I was wondering about that one.

Things could change, but at the moment nothing remotely close to 60 is showing up on the models between now and at least mid month.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

Have a sinking feeling we will probably pay some big time dues for this sustained coolness at some point over the next six months. But might as well enjoy it while it lasts. Historically notable cool weather is such a rarity in our climate these days.

[Winterdog]

I briefly hit 50F today, had a recent shower dropping me down to 43F.  It think I saw spring wink at me through the gray curtain of winter today.

[MossMan]

Tim would LOVE living there! 

 

[Dave]

Light snow falling here in Bend. Much better than no snow.

[Tyler Mode]

Day 5, in a row, of hail here in Battle Ground.  That ties my March record for number of days with hail.  Just 25 days to go to break it...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Radar blowing up

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Radar blowing up

Hmmmm…Just not seeing it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

The past several hours have by far the most convective looking sky and Radar I've seen in months. Earlier I had some decent structure move overhead here, some scud, and obvious outflow aiding in other development. Radar trends look very Spring-Summer like with southerly flow and convection developing south of PDX over the east side of the Willamette Valley. We may see more tomorrow with some sun breaks.

[MossMan]

49/31 on the day. Currently 39. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Have a sinking feeling we will probably pay some big time dues for this sustained coolness at some point over the next six months. But might as well enjoy it while it lasts. Historically notable cool weather is such a rarity in our climate these days.

Spring no longer exists. We go from cold and rainy/snowy throughout June to hot and dry starting in July.

[Ken in Wood Village]

It will be interesting to see what these showers will bring to my area. I also see a good shower North of the Portland area too. I'm outside right now to get something from the store and it feels colder than it was earlier. 

[Dave]

Still getting light snow. Sticking to everything and there is a solid coat of white everywhere. No idea what the temp is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow 32 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Tim would LOVE living there! 

 

3 feet in 24hrs? Meh, been there done that.

[Deweydog]

MODERATE RAIN