SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Day 5.5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010300/132/500h_anom.na.png I bet that low is going to cut off. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I bet that low is going to cut off. Looks like it. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 What's with the storm the GFS is showing? It goes north, then it goes south, and then goes a bit north again. Drunk?Jet is splitting it is cutting off and drifting south. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Looks like it. ICON is way different lol 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 ICON is way different lol At least the general consensus is for a strong low. That's enough for me to be excited. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Day 6 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010300/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 By hour 180 we are in a dry cool airmass with the ICON. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 GFS is allowing the storm to gorge CA with strong wind, keeping it just out of our reach. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 GEM is more in line with the ICON. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 GEM tracks a 985mb and 995mb low into the tip of the Olympic Peninsula next week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 With that deep low sitting off to the southwest there is good potential. That's IF the GFS is handling this right. Would be really encouraged if the EURO trends this way. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. NEARLY. ALMOST. JUST ABOUT ©Rob Winter 2018-2019. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010300/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 With that deep low sitting off to the southwest there is good potential. That's IF the GFS is handling this right. Would be really encouraged if the EURO trends this way. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. NEARLY. ALMOST. JUST ABOUT ©Rob Winter 2018-2019. The EURO also has a deep low, not as S as the GFS but trends it straight towards the Olympics. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well, that was completely anti-climactic. GFS kinda fizzles out the storm as it reaches the coast. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 GEM is more in line with the ICON. Jinx! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Not since early August.I guess it’s been a while. It seemed like not too long ago you posted about being up there and it seems like quite a treck from the Portland area. Thought maybe you had family up there or something. That’s a favorite spot for my wife, kids, and I to go for a day trip as we aren’t too far from the ferry that heads across the water that way. I’ve done a few overnight hikes alone up the olympics on that side and would like to get back up there once the kids are a little older and can make the treck with me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well I definitely prefer the ICON and GEM solutions... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess it’s been a while. It seemed like not too long ago you posted about being up there and it seems like quite a treck from the Portland area. Thought maybe you had family up there or something. That’s a favorite spot for my wife, kids, and I to go for a day trip as we aren’t too far from the ferry that heads across the water that way. I’ve done a few overnight hikes alone up the olympics on that side and would like to get back up there once the kids are a little older and can make the treck with me. I think its only about 2 1/2 hours from where Jesse lives. Maybe 3. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Honestly what the 00z is showing is far better than anything we've seen so far this winter.Honesty is the best policy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess if we can't score some Cold and SNOW I'll be okay with an east wind or south wind event/storm. Something active to break up the weather monotony. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess if we can't score some Cold and SNOW I'll be okay with an east wind or south wind event/storm. Something active to break up the weather monotony.Blasphemy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess if we can't score some Cold and SNOW I'll be okay with an east wind or south wind event/storm. Something active to break up the weather monotony. As long as the GFS cuts the crap about splitting the storm and whatnot. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 As long as the GFS cuts the crap about splitting the storm and whatnot.But that's what the GFS does best. It's like expecting cash from your grandma for Christmas and getting bunny slippers instead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 But that's what the GFS does best. It's like expecting cash from your grandma for Christmas and getting bunny slippers instead. Truer words were never spoken. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 As long as the GFS cuts the crap about splitting the storm and whatnot. Nature is going to do what nature is going to do... regardless of what the GFS shows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The first 138 hours or so of the GFS is fairly interesting. There is massive ensemble spread beyond that, so not a surprise we have seen no run to run consistency. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Nature is going to do what nature is going to do... regardless of what the GFS shows. Is it hard for you to post like this? It has to be no matter what you say. So, don't answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Is it hard for you to post like this? It has to be no matter what you say. So, don't answer. Post like what? I say it all the time. It is what it is. Desperation again Chris... just stop. Stinky boy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Nature is going to do what nature is going to do... regardless of what the GFS shows. Though about 7-10 days ago the GFS was on a much more correct path than the EURO or GEM. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 But that's what the GFS does best. It's like expecting cash from your grandma for Christmas and getting bunny slippers instead.Or getting a knitted Afghan. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Interesting that the 18Z FV3 and now 0z GFS are showing western troughing in the long range. Wonder if we might see the ensembles trend towards the EPS tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 I guess it’s been a while. It seemed like not too long ago you posted about being up there and it seems like quite a treck from the Portland area. Thought maybe you had family up there or something. That’s a favorite spot for my wife, kids, and I to go for a day trip as we aren’t too far from the ferry that heads across the water that way. I’ve done a few overnight hikes alone up the olympics on that side and would like to get back up there once the kids are a little older and can make the treck with me.Yup time flies. It’s about a three and a half hour drive which isn’t too bad. Over half of it is freeway too ( I-5 up to Olympia). My dad moved up here in October of 2017 and we have been visiting every few months since then. I agree it’s a great area with lots of scenery and hiking. The town itself is nice too. Very quaint with lots of Victorian architecture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just checked...the 18Z FV3 showed about 20 inches here from the system on Monday. Probably is overdoing it but fun to dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Though about 7-10 days ago the GFS was on a much more correct path than the EURO or GEM.All the models struggle after day 5. ECMWF has the best surface maps within day 5... and its not even close. The ECMWF was not that bad last week though. Here was the ECMWF one week ago for tomorrow morning (day 8): And here is what it shows now for tomorrow morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just checked...the 18Z FV3 showed about 20 inches here from the system on Monday. Probably is overdoing it but fun to dream.That model has been abysmal with snow around here this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 That model has been abysmal with snow around here this winter.Probably the low resolution. It showed a very heavy band of snow for all VI then almost no rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Post like what? I say it all the time. It is what it is. Desperation again Chris... just stop. Stinky boy. You are a weird one Tim, that's all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 The models and ensembles have been hinting at some opportunity around mid-month. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 It's literally been a decade since we had late January troughing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Ensembles are making a move to cooler for the middle of next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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