January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 5.5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010300/132/500h_anom.na.png

 

I bet that low is going to cut off.

[Requiem]

I bet that low is going to cut off.

 

Looks like it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's with the storm the GFS is showing? It goes north, then it goes south, and then goes a bit north again. Drunk?

Jet is splitting it is cutting off and drifting south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it.

 

ICON is way different lol

 

[Requiem]

ICON is way different lol

 

 

At least the general consensus is for a strong low. That's enough for me to be excited.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010300/144/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By hour 180 we are in a dry cool airmass with the ICON.

 

[Requiem]

GFS is allowing the storm to gorge CA with strong wind, keeping it just out of our reach.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is more in line with the ICON.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM tracks a 985mb and 995mb low into the tip of the Olympic Peninsula next week. 

[Gradient Keeper]

With that deep low sitting off to the southwest there is good potential. That's IF the GFS is handling this right. Would be really encouraged if the EURO trends this way. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. NEARLY. ALMOST. JUST ABOUT ©Rob Winter 2018-2019.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010300/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Requiem]

With that deep low sitting off to the southwest there is good potential. That's IF the GFS is handling this right. Would be really encouraged if the EURO trends this way. IF. MAYBE. COULD BE. NEARLY. ALMOST. JUST ABOUT ©Rob Winter 2018-2019.

 

The EURO also has a deep low, not as S as the GFS but trends it straight towards the Olympics.

[Requiem]

Well, that was completely anti-climactic. GFS kinda fizzles out the storm as it reaches the coast.

[Kayla]

GEM is more in line with the ICON.

 

Jinx!

[jcmcgaffey]

Not since early August.

I guess it’s been a while. It seemed like not too long ago you posted about being up there and it seems like quite a treck from the Portland area. Thought maybe you had family up there or something. That’s a favorite spot for my wife, kids, and I to go for a day trip as we aren’t too far from the ferry that heads across the water that way. I’ve done a few overnight hikes alone up the olympics on that side and would like to get back up there once the kids are a little older and can make the treck with me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well I definitely prefer the ICON and GEM solutions...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I guess it’s been a while. It seemed like not too long ago you posted about being up there and it seems like quite a treck from the Portland area. Thought maybe you had family up there or something. That’s a favorite spot for my wife, kids, and I to go for a day trip as we aren’t too far from the ferry that heads across the water that way. I’ve done a few overnight hikes alone up the olympics on that side and would like to get back up there once the kids are a little older and can make the treck with me.

 

I think its only about 2 1/2 hours from where Jesse lives. Maybe 3.

[Deweydog]

Honestly what the 00z is showing is far better than anything we've seen so far this winter.

Honesty is the best policy.

[Gradient Keeper]

I guess if we can't score some Cold and SNOW I'll be okay with an east wind or south wind event/storm. Something active to break up the weather monotony.

[Jbolin]

I guess if we can't score some Cold and SNOW I'll be okay with an east wind or south wind event/storm. Something active to break up the weather monotony.

Blasphemy 

[Requiem]

I guess if we can't score some Cold and SNOW I'll be okay with an east wind or south wind event/storm. Something active to break up the weather monotony.

 

As long as the GFS cuts the crap about splitting the storm and whatnot.

[Jbolin]

As long as the GFS cuts the crap about splitting the storm and whatnot.

But that's what the GFS does best. 

 

It's like expecting cash from your grandma for Christmas and getting bunny slippers instead.

[Requiem]

But that's what the GFS does best. 

 

It's like expecting cash from your grandma for Christmas and getting bunny slippers instead.

 

Truer words were never spoken.

[TT-SEA]

As long as the GFS cuts the crap about splitting the storm and whatnot.

 

Nature is going to do what nature is going to do... regardless of what the GFS shows.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first 138 hours or so of the GFS is fairly interesting. There is massive ensemble spread beyond that, so not a surprise we have seen no run to run consistency. 

[GHweatherChris]

Nature is going to do what nature is going to do... regardless of what the GFS shows.

Is it hard for you to post like this? It has to be no matter what you say. So, don't answer.

[TT-SEA]

Is it hard for you to post like this? It has to be no matter what you say. So, don't answer.

 

Post like what?    I say it all the time.   It is what it is.

 

Desperation again Chris... just stop.      Stinky boy.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nature is going to do what nature is going to do... regardless of what the GFS shows.  

 

Though about 7-10 days ago the GFS was on a much more correct path than the EURO or GEM. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

But that's what the GFS does best. 

It's like expecting cash from your grandma for Christmas and getting bunny slippers instead.

Or getting a knitted Afghan.

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting that the 18Z FV3 and now 0z GFS are showing western troughing in the long range. Wonder if we might see the ensembles trend towards the EPS tonight.

[Jesse]

I guess it’s been a while. It seemed like not too long ago you posted about being up there and it seems like quite a treck from the Portland area. Thought maybe you had family up there or something. That’s a favorite spot for my wife, kids, and I to go for a day trip as we aren’t too far from the ferry that heads across the water that way. I’ve done a few overnight hikes alone up the olympics on that side and would like to get back up there once the kids are a little older and can make the treck with me.

Yup time flies. It’s about a three and a half hour drive which isn’t too bad. Over half of it is freeway too ( I-5 up to Olympia). My dad moved up here in October of 2017 and we have been visiting every few months since then. I agree it’s a great area with lots of scenery and hiking. The town itself is nice too. Very quaint with lots of Victorian architecture.

[Esquimalt]

Just checked...the 18Z FV3 showed about 20 inches here from the system on Monday.  Probably is overdoing it but fun to dream.

[TT-SEA]

Though about 7-10 days ago the GFS was on a much more correct path than the EURO or GEM.

All the models struggle after day 5.    ECMWF has the best surface maps within day 5... and its not even close.

 

The ECMWF was not that bad last week though.  

 

Here was the ECMWF one week ago for tomorrow morning (day 8):

 

 

 

 

And here is what it shows now for tomorrow morning...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Just checked...the 18Z FV3 showed about 20 inches here from the system on Monday. Probably is overdoing it but fun to dream.

That model has been abysmal with snow around here this winter.

[Esquimalt]

That model has been abysmal with snow around here this winter.

Probably the low resolution. It showed a very heavy band of snow for all VI then almost no rain.

[GHweatherChris]

Post like what? I say it all the time. It is what it is.

 

Desperation again Chris... just stop. Stinky boy.

You are a weird one Tim, that's all!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The models and ensembles have been hinting at some opportunity around mid-month. 

 

[BLI snowman]

It's literally been a decade since we had late January troughing.

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles are making a move to cooler for the middle of next week.