January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Not terrible for the Washington Cascades but still not good

Oregon has some work to do

 

April 1st snow pack is the most important.

 

Lots of years can look bad in January but perfectly normal or above normal by April.    The opposite can also be true.

[Omegaraptor]

April 1st snow pack is the most important.

 

Lots of years can look bad in January but perfectly normal or above normal by April.    The opposite can also be true.

Didn’t the bone dry May last year cause the bad wildfire season?

[TT-SEA]

Didn’t the bone dry May last year cause the bad wildfire season?

Probably did not help in terms of fire.

 

But in terms of water supply... snow pack at the end of the season is what matters. Not how it got there over the course of the winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My goodness the 12z GFS was terrible. We could give January 2018 a run for its money unless we see some inversions set up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably did not help in terms of fire.

 

But in terms of water supply... snow pack at the end of the season is what matters. Not how it got there over the course of the winter.

 

Yes the dry May and June hurt. But the wildfire season in the PNW was not as bad last year as 2017. Because it was essentially over by September whereas in 2017 some of our biggest fires (Eagle Creek) were in September. 

 

I went to a presentation the Oregon AMS did about a decade ago where one of the speakers was a fire weather expert. He said it is uncommon to have a bad fire season after a wet June. However a wet May followed by a dry warm June is the worst combo, because the wet May really fuels vegetation growth, which dies sooner than usual due to the dry warm June. A wet June not only keeps the vegetation green later into the season, but keeps overall fuel loads wetter later into the season, essentially shortening the fire season.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Around hr 240 might be the time to watch with that cold air sliding down the BC mountains and Precip approaching.

[TT-SEA]

Yes the dry May and June hurt. But the wildfire season in the PNW was not as bad last year as 2017. Because it was essentially over by September whereas in 2017 some of our biggest fires (Eagle Creek) were in September.

 

I went to a presentation the Oregon AMS did about a decade ago where one of the speakers was a fire weather expert. He said it is uncommon to have a bad fire season after a wet June. However a wet May followed by a dry warm June is the worst combo, because the wet May really fuels vegetation growth, which dies sooner than usual due to the dry warm June. A wet June not only keeps the vegetation green later into the season, but keeps overall fuel loads wetter later into the season, essentially shortening the fire season.

Makes sense.

[Timmy]

I think he means its back at least somewhere... which is a big change.

Yeah but it doesn’t matter to me if it isn’t within a couple states at least.

[Front Ranger]

Looking forward to a totally dry weekend. Time to begin some yard clean up and start thinking about spring.

 

We have had enough wind, rain, and even snow here recently.

Time to start thinking about the next 6 months?

[TT-SEA]

Time to start thinking about the next 6 months?

 

Yep... its usually a sloooooooooooow ramp up around here.   

[Phil]

Yeah but it doesn’t matter to me if it isn’t within a couple states at least.

How else is it gonna reach you?

 

Arctic air doesn’t come off the Pacific Ocean. It has to exist on the continent first.

[Front Ranger]

I think he means its back at least somewhere... which is a big change.

 

The Southwest has been cold recently. Yay for Farmboy!

 

[TT-SEA]

Anecdotal spring update... I have noticed lots of bird activity in the morning recently. Seems early or maybe I am not remembering past years.

 

But when I start hearing birds singing in the morning... it usually means spring is approaching.

 

Maybe the birds already know this winter is a complete dud?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anecdotal spring update... I have noticed lots of bird activity in the morning recently. Seems early or maybe I am not remembering past years.

 

But when I start hearing birds singing in the morning... it usually means spring is approaching.

 

Maybe the birds already know this winter is a complete dud?

 

Not many birds around my property lately and I bought quite a few feeders with my Christmas money. Mainly just juncos which are typically about the only birds we have around this time of year. 

[TT-SEA]

Not many birds around my property lately and I bought quite a few feeders with my Christmas money. Mainly just juncos which are typically about the only birds we have around this time of year.

I don't really know bird species or sounds.

 

I just know that I have heard quite a bit of singing during the mornings since we got back from Whistler and that seems too early.

[Front Ranger]

Anecdotal spring update... I have noticed lots of bird activity in the morning recently. Seems early or maybe I am not remembering past years.

 

But when I start hearing birds singing in the morning... it usually means spring is approaching.

 

Maybe the birds already know this winter is a complete dud?

 

I thought it was birds singing in morning, sailors take warning?

[TT-SEA]

I thought it was birds singing in morning, sailors take warning?

Red sky in the morning... sailors take warning.

 

Red sky at night... sailors delight.

 

I will also add:  Strong marine push shown in the models... get the boat off the lake by early evening!    Does not rhyme but its a good thing to know.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't really know bird species or sounds.

 

I just know that I have heard quite a bit of singing during the mornings since we got back from Whistler and that seems too early.

 

Songbirds that do not migrate typically move to lower elevations during the winter. My Dad's property is overwhelmed in winter with various wrens, towhees, jays, robins, sparrows, meadowlarks, etc... As well as flickers and other various birds. 

 

Some birds like flickers, true jays (Not scrub jays which are common year round in the valley, but are not typically seen at the higher elevations.), towhees, and juncos are commonly seen in the higher elevations during the warm season, but will move lower during the winter to pursue more abundant food sources and warmer temperatures. 

 

What you are experiencing is probably the result of the mild winter. Birds that would typically be further down in the lowlands have had no reason to move down there. 

[Front Ranger]

My goodness the 12z GFS was terrible. We could give January 2018 a run for its money unless we see some inversions set up.

 

I thought it was a lot better in the 7-10 day range. At least closer to being something good. Way more Alaskan blocking/-EPO and cold sliding south.

 

12z

 

 

0z

 

[Front Ranger]

Red sky in the morning... sailors take warning.

 

Red sky at night... sailors delight.

 

Yes, I know. 

[TT-SEA]

Songbirds that do not migrate typically move to lower elevations during the winter. My Dad's property is overwhelmed in winter with various wrens, towhees, jays, robins, sparrows, meadowlarks, etc... As well as flickers and other various birds. 

 

Some birds like flickers, true jays (Not scrub jays which are common year round in the valley, but are not typically seen at the higher elevations.), towhees, and juncos are commonly seen in the higher elevations during the warm season, but will move lower during the winter to pursue more abundant food sources and warmer temperatures. 

 

What you are experiencing is probably the result of the mild winter. Birds that would typically be further down in the lowlands have had no reason to move down there. 

 

 

Makes sense.

 

We don't usually hear the birds singing here in the mornings until later in February or early March.    Does not seem like winter to me when the birds are singing away early in the morning in January.   

[Omegaraptor]

Yes the dry May and June hurt. But the wildfire season in the PNW was not as bad last year as 2017. Because it was essentially over by September whereas in 2017 some of our biggest fires (Eagle Creek) were in September. 

 

I went to a presentation the Oregon AMS did about a decade ago where one of the speakers was a fire weather expert. He said it is uncommon to have a bad fire season after a wet June. However a wet May followed by a dry warm June is the worst combo, because the wet May really fuels vegetation growth, which dies sooner than usual due to the dry warm June. A wet June not only keeps the vegetation green later into the season, but keeps overall fuel loads wetter later into the season, essentially shortening the fire season.

 

The wildfires hit early though. Klamathon Fire started on July 5th and I consider it to be a PNW fire (northernmost 7 counties in CA are PNW IMO). I was on Crater Lake the exact day it started and although Shasta was visible I saw a haze to the south. Eagle Creek Fire just happened to be human-caused and in the worst location a fire could possibly happen outside of a city.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The wildfires hit early though. Klamathon Fire started on July 5th and I consider it to be a PNW fire (northernmost 7 counties in CA are PNW IMO). I was on Crater Lake the exact day it started and although Shasta was visible I saw a haze to the south. Eagle Creek Fire just happened to be human-caused and in the worst location a fire could possibly happen outside of a city.

 

Yes, but the conditions which allowed the Eagle Creek Fire to be so explosive were not present during September 2018.

[Phil]

Anecdotal spring update... I have noticed lots of bird activity in the morning recently. Seems early or maybe I am not remembering past years.

 

But when I start hearing birds singing in the morning... it usually means spring is approaching.

 

Maybe the birds already know this winter is a complete dud?

FWIW, I’ve noticed the exact opposite here. This is actually the first time in recent memory that I haven’t heard any birds singing in the early morning hours..usually there’s a light chorus through the winter months. I haven’t even seen the crows and ravens raiding trashcans like they usually do at this time of year.

 

I have seen lots of vultures and a few bald eagles in the midday sky, though, so the scavengers are out and about. But I have to tell you, it really does feel like something is brewing. Can’t really explain it..it’s just the demeanor of the atmosphere lately.

[Omegaraptor]

Yes, but the conditions which allowed the Eagle Creek Fire to be so explosive were not present during September 2018.

That is true - the wet spring and sudden switch to bone dry in 2017 caused lots of dry vegetation to be created. In addition, despite the blazing hot July 10 - August 15 period in 2018, it cooled down in the second half of August and September. Eagle Creek Fire was in the midst of a heat wave with RH values near desert levels.

[Phil]

I thought it was a lot better in the 7-10 day range. At least closer to being something good. Way more Alaskan blocking/-EPO and cold sliding south.

 

12z

 

gfs_z500a_namer_37.png

 

0z

 

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

Andrew likes westerly flow for some reason.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Andrew likes westerly flow for some reason.

 

Yeah I think everyone knows why...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yes the dry May and June hurt. But the wildfire season in the PNW was not as bad last year as 2017. Because it was essentially over by September whereas in 2017 some of our biggest fires (Eagle Creek) were in September.

 

I went to a presentation the Oregon AMS did about a decade ago where one of the speakers was a fire weather expert. He said it is uncommon to have a bad fire season after a wet June. However a wet May followed by a dry warm June is the worst combo, because the wet May really fuels vegetation growth, which dies sooner than usual due to the dry warm June. A wet June not only keeps the vegetation green later into the season, but keeps overall fuel loads wetter later into the season, essentially shortening the fire season.

Wow, I didn't know a wet May followed by a dry June was the worst outcome.

[MossMan]

I thought it was a lot better in the 7-10 day range. At least closer to being something good. Way more Alaskan blocking/-EPO and cold sliding south.

 

12z

 

gfs_z500a_namer_37.png

 

0z

 

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

That is much improved...from what Andrew described it sounded horrific. Baby steps!

[TT-SEA]

Wow, I didn't know a wet May followed by a dry June was the worst outcome.

 

In Southern California... they always warn that a wet spring can lead to a really bad fire season.

 

No idea if that is true or just media drama.

[Phil]

Yeah I think everyone knows why...

#YourLocation

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Anecdotal spring update... I have noticed lots of bird activity in the morning recently. Seems early or maybe I am not remembering past years.

 

But when I start hearing birds singing in the morning... it usually means spring is approaching.

 

Maybe the birds already know this winter is a complete dud?

I remember you saying this before, I think it was last Winter prior to the cold spell that occured the last half of February. Maybe the birds are just happier because the sun rises earlier and earlier in the mornings now?

[Front Ranger]

That is much improved...from what Andrew described it sounded horrific. Baby steps!

 

Yeah. It's always a crapshoot with his summary statements regarding model runs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#YourLocation

 

Then why act like you didn't know.

[TT-SEA]

I remember you saying this before, I think it was last Winter prior to the cold spell that occured the last half of February. Maybe the birds are just happier because the sun rises earlier and earlier in the mornings now?

 

 

Yeah... it seemed like the birds were getting active in early February last year.    But not this early.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just going to throw this question out here since the ENSO thread is pretty dormant. It's pretty clear to me this winter will qualify as a weak Nino. However, on some of the Facebook groups I am in this is being questioned and some people are adamant this winter will not be an official Nino and that it is warm neutral. I find these assertions to be incorrect, am I off base here? 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

In Southern California... they always warn that a wet spring can lead to a really bad fire season.

 

No idea if that is true or just media drama.

It's probably true if they have first hand knowledge.

[Phil]

Then why act like you didn't know.

I wanted you to openly confirm it. Explains why your definition of a “good” run differs from 90% of the forum.

[TT-SEA]

It's probably true if they have first hand knowledge.

 

 

Not sure about that... local media seems to be in the business of dire warnings to attract viewers.

 

That is why I try to avoid local newscasts whenever possible.   Its downright depressing.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wanted you to openly confirm it. Explains why your definition of a “good” run differs from 90% of the forum.

 

I don't think the 12z would qualify as good by anyone's definition here. 

 

And I would take strong GOA blocking and an arctic blast, over W flow and 1500' snow levels any day. But this winter I will be rooting for the 10% chance of some nice cold onshore flow as opposed to the 0.01% chance of an arctic blast.