January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[kokaneekidz]

I love the measured tone comingout of the NOAA Seattle office. Way not to jinx it. Great work guys, they deserve a midwinter bonus for steady as she goes work

[TT-SEA]

Tim, get him!

 

Dewey, get anyone who gets Tim for getting him!!

 

I don't even know what he is talking about.

 

But when the chips are down... everyone loves having the ECMWF on board above all else.   Wonder why?  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z FV3 doubling down on it's solution by showing more widespread, heavier snowfall versus it's 12z counterpart.

 

Although Flatiron will be quick to point out that this map doesn't mean much so please take a moment to read the below disclaimer:

 

The below map is not indicative of what will actually happen, nor does it indicate the likelihood of said snowfall occurring. This is a fairly low resolution snowfall map being posted in a time of model uncertainty at 5 days out. The FV3 takes no responsibility for the content of this map and must not take the brunt of the fall if the solution does not pan out. The FV3 tries it's best, and that should account for something. 

 

LOL 

[Jesse]

I love the measured tone comingout of the NOAA Seattle office. Way not to jinx it. Great work guys, they deserve a midwinter bonus for steady as she goes work

 

They could probably use a midwinter bonus considering they just went full operational again yesterday after a month+ hiatus.

[BLI snowman]

Didn’t the euro eff up a super bowl forecast recently ?

 

It showed a foot of isothermal slop for the Portland area on Super Bowl Sunday 2017. That wound up over Astoria and Olympia.

[MossMan]

You can almost smell the disappointment of tonight model runs already....

Reverse phycology?

[Front Ranger]

18z FV3 doubling down on it's solution by showing more widespread, heavier snowfall versus it's 12z counterpart.

 

Although Flatiron will be quick to point out that this map doesn't mean much so please take a moment to read the below disclaimer:

 

The below map is not indicative of what will actually happen, nor does it indicate the likelihood of said snowfall occurring. This is a fairly low resolution snowfall map being posted in a time of model uncertainty at 5 days out. The FV3 takes no responsibility for the content of this map and must not take the brunt of the fall if the solution does not pan out. The FV3 tries it's best, and should be given credit for being slightly better than every other model not named the Euro. 

 

There we go! Fixed the last part for you.

[Requiem]

It showed a foot of isothermal slop for the Portland area on Super Bowl Sunday 2017. That wound up over Astoria and Olympia.

 

Any other winter that would have been a kick in the teeth, but I think 1/10/17 made up for that in great sport.

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems like a chance we go into a prolonged cold pattern starting Saturday lasting 7+ days. Very similar to the EURO Weeklies.

[Requiem]

Seems like a chance we go into a prolonged cold pattern starting Saturday lasting 7+ days. Very similar to the EURO Weeklies.

 

A similar setup to last February?

[Gradient Keeper]

A similar setup to last February?

I don't believe so. I'd have to look at the 500mb maps.

[BLI snowman]

Any other winter that would have been a kick in the teeth, but I think 1/10/17 made up for that in great sport.

 

Yeah, it was pretty forgivable as far as model busts go.

[Requiem]

Yeah, it was pretty forgivable as far as model busts go.

 

Honestly I had serious doubts about that one from the get-go, seemed too good to be true after the January  events.

[Front Ranger]

Seems like a chance we go into a prolonged cold pattern starting Saturday lasting 7+ days. Very similar to the EURO Weeklies.

The prospect of a frontloaded winter continues to fade.

[MossMan]

The prospect of a frontloaded winter continues to fade.

It’s only January 29th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Honestly I had serious doubts about that one from the get-go, seemed too good to be true after the January  events.

 

Even the central and s valley had already scored bigly by that point in 16-17.

[Blizzard777]

Cautiously optimistic. I want to see 00z runs tonight continue the trend if not improve further and solid agreement the next 2 days through 00z Thursday.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 42 minutes

We shall be on edge until the very first snowflake falls and verifies

[Esquimalt]

We shall be on edge until the very first snowflake falls and verifies

You’ve got your first special snowflake right here

[Deweydog]

So what’s the over/under at this point?

 

A foot?

[FroYoBro]

So what’s the over/under at this point?

 

A foot?

A half inch.

[Winterdog]

That is so unlikely in this case... why are you being so negative?

Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 3 days almost never happens!  I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen.  Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period.  We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event.  This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet.  If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway.  We aren't even close to likely on this one yet.

[TT-SEA]

Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 2 days almost never happens!  I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen.  Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period.  We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event.  This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet.  If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway.  We aren't even close to likely on this one yet.

 

 

The trends have been all good as we move within 5 days now.    I can't really imagine the ECMWF changing course at this point... it seems locked in on a solution and its not marginal.      

[Winterdog]

The trends have been all good as we move within 5 days now.    I can't really imagine the ECMWF changing course at this point... it seems locked in on a solution and its not marginal.      

Yeah, it's probably not going to happen on one run but the flip can surely make an obvious start tonight and put everyone in a state of Catatonia or California.

[Gradient Keeper]

1-29-19 5:00 PM [Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z NAM in 41 minutes (5:41 PM) NAM was added as we can get an idea of how the block is evolving at Day 3.5 where the run ends at.

 

Later this evening....
00z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes (7:27 PM)
00z GEM/CMC in 2 hours 50 minutes (7:50 PM)
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 45 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!
❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So glad we finally have something worth tracking.

[Guest Sounder]

Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 3 days almost never happens!  I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen.  Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period.  We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event.  This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet.  If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway.  We aren't even close to likely on this one yet.

Perhaps you don't actually look at the models and just base your opinions off the posts on here, but there is quite good model agreement right now. When it comes to the large scale pattern, every model seems to have a decent handle through the mid range. Given our traditionally borderline climate, this event being no different, it doesn't take large scale differences to create a "bust" in the eyes of a weenie.

 

To suggest that A. the models are more likely to be wrong than right after 3 days and B. there isn't decent agreement right now is just dumb.

[Front Ranger]

Not to speak for GHweatherChris but my guess he's so negative is because the good stuff modeled outside of 3 days almost never happens!  I don't see why you think it's unlikely to happen.  Many times in the past couple years the Euro has flipped in the 5 or less days period.  We've seen all models agree on something good and have all of them flip within 5 days of an event.  This "event" hasn't even got all the major models agreeing yet.  If all models agree within 3 days of the event and the NWS says it will happen then it's likely to happen or partially happen anyway.  We aren't even close to likely on this one yet.

 

I think it's been pretty rare for the good stuff to be modeled within 5 days and not happen at all in recent years. Especially the Euro. Watered down some, sure, but complete flips are really rare in the 3-5 day range.

 

It's much more common in the 7-10 day range, where model accuracy falls off a cliff.

 

Even in 2011, when the GFS was still showing (with some runs) the goods 3-4 days out, I don't believe the Euro was onboard.

[Guest Sounder]

FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run.

 

Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run.

 

Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new?

 

Good luck getting a concrete answer.

[umadbro]

FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run.

 

Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new?

Not enough of a sample size yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2019
I only added the sections that pertain to us. * Bold for highlighted areas.

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND AN **AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO MUCH OF ALASKA.* DOWNSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.**

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR LARGE PARTS OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, UNDER NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS.

THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, *30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8*, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

[Deweydog]

A half inch.

Sold!

[Gradient Keeper]

The Canuck mets are on board

 

 

[jakeinthevalley]

So what’s the over/under at this point?

 

A foot?

9" above 326.5 feet. That will be the snow level according to the superior FV3

[Winterdog]

Perhaps you don't actually look at the models and just base your opinions off the posts on here, but there is quite good model agreement right now. When it comes to the large scale pattern, every model seems to have a decent handle through the mid range. Given our traditionally borderline climate, this event being no different, it doesn't take large scale differences to create a "bust" in the eyes of a weenie.

 

To suggest that A. the models are more likely to be wrong than right after 3 days and B. there isn't decent agreement right now is just dumb.

To say that the models are not statistically more likely to be less accurate outside 3 days is even dumber.  The models are never going to be totally right at any time.  Outside 3 days they are statistically less likely to be right than inside 3 days.  I never said that the models were not in decent agreement right now, I said not all the major models are in agreement.  To some, 2 out 3 ain't bad but to me it ain't real good. 

[Guest Sounder]

To say that the models are not statistically more likely to be less accurate outside 3 days is even dumber.  The models are never going to be totally right at any time.  Outside 3 days they are statistically less likely to be right than inside 3 days.  I never said that the models were not in decent agreement right now, I said not all the major models are in agreement.  To some, 2 out 3 ain't bad but to me it ain't real good. 

Is that what I said?

[Gradient Keeper]

HUGE runs tonight!

[Gradient Keeper]

I created an image collage to show just how much colder for Monday onward the FV3 has trended since the 00z run last night.

 

20 degrees colder for Monday and Wednesday.

27 degrees colder for Tuesday.

16 degrees colder for Thursday.

 

I mean, wow. Quite the change.

Wow, yeah. Nice job on this. It is appreciated.

 

6z GFS in 7 hours 48 minutes

[Deweydog]

Told you guys the models wouldn’t figure this out until this Tuesday.

[Geos]

She's a beaut.

 

That is a thing of beauty!