January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Sounds like you don't think there is any chance this shakes things up enough to give us a cool/more reasonable spring and summer?

Honestly..I don’t know yet. I could see a mega-torch or something more like 1997. Ironically, I think the summer might end up cooler (IE: normalish thanks to a nearby GOA/BC trough) if we enter a healthy east-based niño regime, as opposed to another weak +ENSO with excessive off-equator NPAC convection and a broad ITCZ/wide Hadley Cell, in which case it will be a furnace.

 

So I stand by my idea that getting the niño over with during 2019/20 is ideal (and probably the most likely outcome).

[Phil]

I wonder how the demographics break down for places like International Falls. Age-wise.

Probably a lot of Tims up there.

[TT-SEA]

Honestly..I don’t know yet. I could see a mega-torch or something more like 1997. Ironically, I think the summer might end up cooler (IE: normalish thanks to a nearby GOA/BC trough) if we enter a healthy east-based niño regime, as opposed to another weak +ENSO with excessive off-equator NPAC convection and a broad ITCZ/wide Hadley Cell, in which case it will be a furnace.

 

So I stand by my idea that getting the niño over with during 2019/20 is ideal (and probably the most likely outcome).

Remember... what some call an inferno summer here would be chilly to you. You would never fear even our warmest summers.

 

People just need to invest in A/C... climate controlled homes are the wave of the future.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The high res version doesn't go out that far, this is how the low res version looks:

 

Looks decent for down here.

[Perturbed Member]

Will PDX and surrounding areas do okay with this sort of setup for snow?

 

Your odds near the top of the west hills are strong IMO. Few inches is probably the more likely up there. Unwise to try to make any snow forecast around here a few days out but the models seemingly have a good handle on the initial cold shot now. 

[Jesse]

Honestly..I don’t know yet. I could see a mega-torch or something more like 1997. Ironically, I think the summer might end up cooler (IE: normalish thanks to a nearby GOA/BC trough) if we enter a healthy east-based niño regime, as opposed to another weak +ENSO with excessive off-equator NPAC convection and a broad ITCZ/wide Hadley Cell, in which case it will be a furnace.

So I stand by my idea that getting the niño over with during 2019/20 is ideal (and probably the most likely outcome).

I could live with 1997 as an analog. Normalish spring and summer, a little backloaded with a warm (humid!) August and September. Only nine days above 90 at PDX, which would feel downright ball shriveling compared to last year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 AM Tuesday. CHILLY! and what's this. A possible Columbia Basin high developing?

 

Impressive! Not everyday you see the colors go off the scale like that.

[snow_wizard]

Quite a few ensemble members go below -14 for Seattle.  The second cold shot is starting to become apparent now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Oh yeah I know.  I would just appreciate if in reality that band got shifted right a dozen miles Lots of time left until then though 

 

Fingers crossed, the Nov 2006 and Feb 2011 snowstorms weren't well forecast in this area even a day out. It just comes down to last minute details. I'm sure we'll get some accumulation, hard not to with an Arctic front of that intensity.

[Gradient Keeper]

Check this OUT! for PDX! Tuesday 10 PM. Increasing east winds, weak low just to the west. This would be a backdoor blast and snow!

 

1 AM Wednesday. BITTER low level cold Gorge east, strong east winds. Wow. IF this plays out temps are going to plummet. I won't even get to 25 where I'm at.

[snow_wizard]

Anyone have the FV3 snowfall maps?  The crude ones look pretty good for many of us.

[Esquimalt]

Quite a few ensemble members go below -14 for Seattle.  The second cold shot is starting to become apparent now.

Do you have the snowfall ensembles for Victoria and Seattle?

[Front Ranger]

I think we all need to seriously consider that Tim may be controlling the weather. We're just gonna believe it was a coincidence he pulled this perfect forecast out of his a** from 3 weeks out?

 

The odd thing is, he doesn't like snow after mid January! Weird way to flaunt his power.

[Jesse]

Check this OUT! for PDX! Tuesday 10 PM. Increasing east winds, weak low just to the west. This would be a backdoor blast and snow!

 

1 AM Wednesday. BITTER low level cold Gorge east, strong east winds. Wow. IF this plays out temps are going to plummet. I won't even get to 25 where I'm at.

 

Nice!!

[Esquimalt]

Fingers crossed, the Nov 2006 and Feb 2011 snowstorms weren't well forecast in this area even a day out. It just comes down to last minute details. I'm sure we'll get some accumulation, hard not to with an Arctic front of that intensity.

How did the February 2011 snowfall turn out?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Check this OUT! for PDX! Tuesday 10 PM. Increasing east winds, weak low just to the west. This would be a backdoor blast and snow!

 

1 AM Wednesday. BITTER low level cold Gorge east, strong east winds. Wow. IF this plays out temps are going to plummet. I won't even get to 25 where I'm at.

[#10127] You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[MossMan]

How did the February 2011 snowfall turn out?

If I remember correctly my area had about 16” or so.

[snow_wizard]

Honestly..I don’t know yet. I could see a mega-torch or something more like 1997. Ironically, I think the summer might end up cooler (IE: normalish thanks to a nearby GOA/BC trough) if we enter a healthy east-based niño regime, as opposed to another weak +ENSO with excessive off-equator NPAC convection and a broad ITCZ/wide Hadley Cell, in which case it will be a furnace.

 

So I stand by my idea that getting the niño over with during 2019/20 is ideal (and probably the most likely outcome).

 

Whether or not we will have a Nino this year is the million dollar question.  I could see a pretty cold year and cold next winter if we avoid it.  I agree if we don't get the Nino out of the way this year we will probably have a bad one in 2020-21 though.   Everything is acting so oddly this year I don't have a really good feel for it one way or the other.

[TT-SEA]

The odd thing is, he doesn't like snow after mid January! Weird way to flaunt his power.

 

I will tolerate it through Valentines Day.

 

This is a gift... I was feeling benevolent.   

[Front Ranger]

The Pacific jet is finally dead (for the time being) so there’s no chance this gets screwed up by a last minute hose job or something borderline like that.

 

This is really just a classic (albeit belated) system state progression following a -NAM downwell after a multiwave SSW. It really did start with the PV breakdown. It just took much longer than usual:

 

 

The funny thing is it played out quite a bit differently than many expected. The general consensus was that SSWs usually lead to cold in the West first and then the East, when in fact it's been the opposite.

 

Just proves once again the inexact nature of the science we're dealing with.

[Deweydog]

We’re 100% sure that we’re not sure.

[TT-SEA]

The funny thing is it played out quite a bit differently than many expected. The general consensus was that SSWs usually lead to cold in the West first and then the East, when in fact it's been the opposite.

 

Just proves once again the inexact nature of the science we're dealing with.

 

Didn't it follow the same script last year too?    Cold just slowly migrated west.  

 

That is primarily what gave me the strong feeling about this coming cold period.  

[snow_wizard]

Do you have the snowfall ensembles for Victoria and Seattle?

 

I don't normally look at those.  I know what things need to look like on the models for it to snow good in this area.  Right now they have the right look.  For Seattle... Fraser River blasts are much more likely to be snow producers than backdoor blasts.  This is also the part of the winter that is most likely for cold waves to be accompanied by decent snowfall.

[snow_wizard]

The funny thing is it played out quite a bit differently than many expected. The general consensus was that SSWs usually lead to cold in the West first and then the East, when in fact it's been the opposite.

 

Just proves once again the inexact nature of the science we're dealing with.

 

I think this season will leave many forecasters looking for answers.  A lot of things have happened that shouldn't have.

[Esquimalt]

I think this season will leave many forecasters looking for answers.  A lot of things have happened that shouldn't have.

 

Yeah a ton of forecasters were calling for your classic nino late winter crap fest.  Warm late January and entire febuary, and that was what I expected going into this winter as well.  But sometimes you lose and sometimes you win

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Very cold air is nearly upon us by late Saturday afternoon. Got to like how fast it gets here on this run.

 

[Phil]

Whether or not we will have a Nino this year is the million dollar question. I could see a pretty cold year and cold next winter if we avoid it. I agree if we don't get the Nino out of the way this year we will probably have a bad one in 2020-21 though. Everything is acting so oddly this year I don't have a really good feel for it one way or the other.

Yeah, if the KW return is a real torpedo (doesn’t look that way right now, but it’s possible) then that in tandem with the fact the +QBO will be establishing firm control by the summer solstice could (in theory) warm/stabilize the equatorial Pacific tropopause just enough to thwart a stronger niño until 2020/21. However, in that case 2019/20 would probably still end up warm neutral or weak niño, similar to this winter (with loads of off-equator SST warmth as well). So you’d be looking at a 3 year warm event in that case.

 

However, that seems pretty unlikely to me right now. I’m still betting on a niño in 2019/20, then a multiyear niña spanning the early 2020s.

[Esquimalt]

Euro quicker hitting with the cold air thru hour 72 then last night.  Low in the interior of BC also deeper.

[Jesse]

Getting close to Euro time.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 3 block centered a bit further west, and better amplitude.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah a ton of forecasters were calling for your classic nino late winter crap fest.  Warm late January and entire febuary, and that was what I expected going into this winter as well.  But sometimes you lose and sometimes you win

 

Solar minimum.    Dumb to ignore it.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I don't normally look at those. I know what things need to look like on the models for it to snow good in this area. Right now they have the right look. For Seattle... Fraser River blasts are much more likely to be snow producers than backdoor blasts. This is also the part of the winter that is most likely for cold waves to be accompanied by decent snowfall.

This.

[Jesse]

Solar minimum.    Dumb to ignore it.  

 

There have been plenty of Nino winters during solar minimum that haven't delivered at all. Or at least not this late in the season.

[TT-SEA]

There have been many Nino winters during solar minimum that haven't delivered at all.

This is a deep solar minimum.

[Jesse]

00z ECMWF Day 3 block centered a bit further west, and better amplitude.

 

 

 

Geopotential heights over Anchorage have moved from a tepid 540dm during last night's Euro discussion to a decent 552dm.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF definitely a notch westward on Sunday.

 

[Front Ranger]

I will tolerate it through Valentines Day.

 

This is a gift... I was feeling benevolent.   

 

I see.

 

You must have been feeling pretty masochistic last April. 

[Jesse]

This is a deep solar minimum.

 

I'm just not sold that the correlation is so linear. I will take the cold and snow though!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

How did the February 2011 snowfall turn out?

 

Large parts of the city received around a foot of snow in some convective/convergence type snow showers. There was less at the airport and some parts of the SE island like Duncan had almost nothing while areas around Nanaimo-Parksville had 6-8" of strait-effect snow. The forecast was for a sunny day with something like 30% chance of flurries (localized 2cm if I recall).

[snow_wizard]

Very cold air is nearly upon us by late Saturday afternoon. Got to like how fast it gets here on this run.

 

 

Going to be fun to see how cold the Fraser outflow is.  The interior of BC should be ridiculously cold.