January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Snow is rotating into King County late Monday morning... this would be ideal for snow in the Seattle area in deformation band on north side of low.

 

But we don't want any more shifts to the west.

 

Can you post the close up map.

[Requiem]

EURO's not awful...

 

At least not for Centralia and northward.

[snow_wizard]

This run is warmer.

 

It's fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would you rather have a high of 35 Monday and 5" of snow or a high of 31 and a trace?

[snow_wizard]

EURO's not awful...

 

Kind of an understatement.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a little less snow down here through hour 120 due to less precip. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Definitely a step back for the valley.

[Esquimalt]

If this doesn't say "It's over", I don't know what does.

 

 

D**n Victoria gets screwed 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday at 4pm... almost all precip is gone at that point.  

 

 

 

Here is the 4-10 pm period on Monday:

 

[Requiem]

If this doesn't say "It's over", I don't know what does.

 

 

 

It's good, just very meh for the W. Valley. Oh well, these details will cement themselves out in the coming days.

[Omegaraptor]

Monday forecast of 38/26 will cleanly smash both our lowest high and lowest low for this winter straight out of the water.

[Phil]

And you also predicted a front-loaded winter for the West...

Yeah, I screwed up the timing of the SSW downwell massively. I thought it would be 1/1 - 1/10 with that last round of EHEM forcing. This one took longer to downwell than any SSW in recorded history, probably because of the prominent wave-3 structure holding for so long, keeping westerly momentum going for a longer period of time in the lower levels.

 

But there is no way I could have seen that coming. So I’m pretty sure I was screwed with that part no matter what.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely a step back for the valley.

 

Seems like less precip overall. Even up here it shows about 3-5" when it had been showing able 2X as much.

[Jesse]

I’m kind of excited about this. There are some serious arguments about a heliocentric atmospheric imprint and if it is as strong as previously thought. If we go into that grand minimum, we should get an answer in as little as a couple years.

 

Famine and destruction aside, think about winters that would put the 1800s to shame.

 

You're gonna freak him out!

[MossMan]

One more notch west and myself/my dog are going to take the boat out for a cruise on Monday!

[Omegaraptor]

It’s impressive how active this thread is.

 

How’s the activity in spring and summer?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's fine.

Warmer and better. I prefer the shift to the west to pick up some moisture. Cold wont be a problem. This is really looking like a November 2010 repeat.

[HighlandExperience]

d**n Victoria gets screwed

Victoria still in the 1-2 inch range

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Shawnigan if you read this our web site in B.C. crashed. Sorry to interupt you guys needed to see if some of our members were on here.

[TT-SEA]

Also it all will melt too. Freezing ends soon after that

 

No... this is snow going INTO cold.   Much better than the other way around.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surface temps Monday don't look any warmer than the 12z EURO. Sunday maybe a notch warmer because things are delayed a bit.

[Requiem]

Warmer and better. I prefer the shift to the west to pick up some moisture. Cold wont be a problem. This is really looking like a November 2010 repeat.

 

Which gave PDX basically nothing, so I'm hoping for more of a February 2011 repeat.

[Jesse]

One more notch west and myself/my dog are going to take the boat out for a cruise on Monday!

 

Those cedars looking a little unhealthy.

[TT-SEA]

It’s impressive how active this thread is.

 

How’s the activity in spring and summer?

 

Its usually just Matt, Jesse, and myself.    Talking about marine pushes and heat waves and the sort.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tuesday morning would be the coldest morning of the winter. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One more notch west and myself/my dog are going to take the boat out for a cruise on Monday!

You should but my mint 93 bayliner 22 ft. 125 original hrs with a built 4.3 v6 i did. Does 60 with 4 people and full tank. Has a cuddy cabin as well.

[Deweydog]

Facebook is crawling with “OMG IT’S GONNA SNOW” posts.

[Esquimalt]

Victoria still in the 1-2 inch range

Not as great as 4-5 inches

[TT-SEA]

Facebook is crawling with “OMG IT’S GONNA SNOW” posts.

 

My facebook is crawling with "OMG ITS INSANELY COLD AND I WANT A WARM VACATION AND SUMMER RIGHT NOW" posts.   

 

But my feed is mostly MN and WI people.    

[Front Ranger]

Warmer and better. I prefer the shift to the west to pick up some moisture. Cold wont be a problem. This is really looking like a November 2010 repeat.

 

I could be wrong, but I think the ideal solution would be with the main ULL hugging the coast closer and not allowing quite as much oceanic moderation as this latest solution shows.

 

Yeah, the Euro snow maps look great for western WA, but if it were me I'd rather have slightly colder temps and still plenty of moisture to assure better sticking down to near sea level - especially if it falls during the day.

 

Don't get me wrong, this still looks great for you guys, I just don't think it's the ideal scenario for the most people. But threading the needle with these things is always a *****.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's good, just very meh for the W. Valley. Oh well, these details will cement themselves out in the coming days.

Yeah, we're still about 4 days away from this event happening. The finer details will change as we get closer and closer to the event. The big picture is that lowland snow is possible for pretty much everybody on this forum.

[Phil]

My facebook is crawling with "OMG ITS INSANELY COLD AND I WANT A WARM VACATION AND SUMMER RIGHT NOW" posts.

Be thankful you live where you do. Count your blessings!

 

[ShawniganLake]

Not as great as 4-5 inches

We’ll see. Pretty much impossible to model surface lows well this far in advance.

[TT-SEA]

I could be wrong, but I think the ideal solution would be with the main ULL hugging the coast closer and not allowing quite as much oceanic moderation as this latest solution shows.

 

Yeah, the Euro snow maps look great for western WA, but if it were me I'd rather have slightly colder temps and still plenty of moisture to assure better sticking down to near sea level - especially if it falls during the day.

 

Don't get me wrong, this still looks great for you guys, I just don't think it's the ideal scenario for the most people. But threading the needle with these things is always a *****.

 

Westward trend needs to stop now!  

[Front Ranger]

On the bright side, the trend towards keeping things cold to chilly for longer looks to continue with this run.

[Omegaraptor]

[wxmet]

ECMWF 00z is a step back from previous runs. It's digging the 500mb trough too far south which pushes the best dynamics farther south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tuesday is very chilly with highs of 37 at SLE and PDX.

[Front Ranger]

You should but my mint 93 bayliner 22 ft. 125 original hrs with a built 4.3 v6 i did. Does 60 with 4 people and full tank. Has a cuddy cabin as well.

 

You have been blessed with many toys.