January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Canadian guy]

d**n. How much before the event did it fall apart?

 

It was actually decent up here. Monty got a ton a snow with that.

[Guest Sounder]

Don't ask.

 

The biggest model failure in the history of models.

I'm genuinely curious. I remember it being 21 degrees IMBY in Southern California at 1100', and it snowed in Agoura Hills then. What happened up here?

[Esquimalt]

It was actually decent up here. Monty got a ton a snow with that.

How do you feel about this event coming up?

[Geos]

If the 18Z run verified... this would be close to a non-event for most of us.   

 

Luckily its the 18Z run.  

 

Yep, it is usually the odd ball run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At the very least, we have something interesting to follow. Haven’t had that yet for the s valley so it’s better than just constant split flow or warm frontal drizzle and tail ends of any fronts.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z FV3 (Sober Uncle) 100 miles further west than 12z.

[Deweydog]

d**n. How much before the event did it fall apart?

By model standards it was maybe the most storied failure of all time. Advertised two separate top-tier blasts within seven days and crumbled on both.

 

BC had a very snowy stretch out of it so it wasn’t a complete waste.

[Jesse]

What did January of ‘05 bring

A lot of snow up that way if I recall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah at least this was never looking like something major.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z and 06z runs are notorious for using partial data and being inaccurate. On the East Coast, 18z runs seemed to over do pressure, so we would either be forecasted to torch or forecasted to freeze. Thats why you see a lot more people pumped for the 00z or the 12z of the GFS.

Good insights.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how much warmer the south valley is today. Going to end up with something like a 60/27.

[Geos]

18z FV3 (Sober Uncle) 100 miles further west than 12z.

Things tend to trend east with time so I would not put much stock in it - given that is Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah at least this was never looking like something major.

 

I was at least hoping for a few inches at 1600' though. Not confident in that anymore. 

[Esquimalt]

By model standards it was maybe the most storied failure of all time. Advertised two separate top-tier blasts within seven days and crumbled on both.

 

BC had a very snowy stretch out of it so it wasn’t a complete waste.

What were the models mishandling?

[Canadian guy]

How do you feel about this event coming up?

Cautiously optimistic...doesn't appear this will be top tier anymore and I'm not loving the western trend but feeling ok about our location and scoring something decent. This winter has been so bad that having some snow falling with temperatures in the mid 30's will seem like a win. Plus there appears we could have more chances after the initial trough.

[Gradient Keeper]

Things tend to trend east with time so I would not put much stock in it - given that is Thursday.

Yeah, that has certainly been the case many times. We're within 66-72 hours of the arctic trough moving into central BC. A lot can change.

[TT-SEA]

18Z FV3 is in agreement with the 18Z GFS on Sunday afternoon... definite westward shift.

 

[Jesse]

Interesting how much warmer the south valley is today. Going to end up with something like a 60/27.

TGFG (thank goodness for the Gorge).

 

PDX hovering between 50-52 with east winds.

[Gradient Keeper]

TGFG (thank goodness for the Gorge).

 

PDX hovering between 50-52 with east winds.

Without the Gorge imagine how much worse our climate would be? NO THANKS!

 

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes

[TT-SEA]

TGFG (thank goodness for the Gorge).

 

PDX hovering between 50-52 with east winds.

 

59/38 here today.

 

TGFDW (thank goodness for downslope warming).   

[Brennan]

Remember in the early 2000's when the models ALWAYS had a west bias and things would shift east last minute.....

[Deweydog]

What were the models mishandling?

The atmosphere.

[Phil]

18z and 06z runs are notorious for using partial data and being inaccurate. On the East Coast, 18z runs seemed to over do pressure,so we would either be forecasted to torch or forecasted to freeze. Thats why you see a lot more people pumped for the 00z or the 12z of the GFS.

People say this, but there’s no evidence to back it up. For the most part it’s a product of east coast weenie wishcasters and the fact the GFS sucks so astronomically that the short term bumps from run-to-run are usually complete horses**t anyway, hence the staying power of the rumor.

 

Also, keep this in mind re: the reputation of the 18z GFS run in particular: There is no other 18z guidance for the medium range except the GFS, and most east coast snow weenies are coming home from work/school when it comes out. So when there’s a bad 18z GFS run, and there’s no additional model guidance to soften the sting of a bad run, of course there will be excuses to dismiss it, and the “lack of rasiosondes” is the only excuse with a shred of plausibly (and since 99% of data for initialization comes from satellites, and not rasiosondes, it really has no plausibility at all).

 

So we’re being duped when we buy into that whole “the 18z run is inferior” bulls**t. Once we buy into that, the confirmation bias starts, we start selectively recalling instances that fit said narrative, etc.

[Deweydog]

Remember in the early 2000's when the models ALWAYS had a west bias and things would shift east last minute.....

G.W. fixed that.

[Canadian guy]

Yeah, that has certainly been the case many times. We're within 66-72 hours of the arctic trough moving into central BC. A lot can change.

If my memory serves me right..3-4 days prior to an event like this there always seems to be waffling in the models or moderation...only to revert back a day or 2 before...hopefully this is the case.

[Omegaraptor]

53 at PDX, 57 on the other side of the West Hills.

[Esquimalt]

If my memory serves me right..3-4 days prior to an event like this there always seems to be waffling in the models or moderation...only to revert back a day or 2 before...hopefully this is the case.

It could also be that we only remember the times where it reverts.

[Jbolin]

This will all end in tears

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It will trend east when the arctic front slides to the east.

[Esquimalt]

Wow. Ensemble moderation is crazy

[van city]

This will all end in tears

Lol. Some are already crying.

[MossMan]

My wife was right all along. Cliff Mass better do a retraction quickly.

[Esquimalt]

My wife was right all along. Cliff Mass better do a retraction quickly.

I feel everything will get better tonight. Just a feeling

[TT-SEA]

My wife was right all along. Cliff Mass better do a retraction quickly.

 

 

My phone app no longer shows any days with highs below freezing. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z run was also quite dry overall... except for tomorrow of course.

[TT-SEA]

I feel everything will get better tonight. Just a feeling

 

I have the same feeling.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Feels like the old days. we are at the 3 day model back off time then late tomorrow it will trend better. Watch.

[MossMan]

I remember the times when everything would trend east...but west?? That is just plain wrong. Hopefully things jog east just a bit...wouldn’t take much.

[FroYoBro]

People say this, but there’s no evidence to back it up. For the most part it’s a product of east coast weenie wishcasters and the fact the GFS sucks so astronomically that the short term bumps from run-to-run are usually complete horses**t anyway, hence the staying power of the rumor.

 

Also, keep this in mind re: the reputation of the 18z GFS run in particular: There is no other 18z guidance for the medium range except the GFS, and most east coast snow weenies are coming home from work/school when it comes out. So when there’s a bad 18z GFS run, and there’s no additional model guidance to soften the sting of a bad run, of course there will be excuses to dismiss it, and the “lack of rasiosondes” is the only excuse with a shred of plausibly (and since 99% of data for initialization comes from satellites, and not rasiosondes, it really has no plausibility at all).

 

So we’re being duped when we buy into that whole “the 18z run is inferior” bulls**t. Once we buy into that, the confirmation bias starts, we start selectively recalling instances that fit said narrative, etc.

 

I am glad you typed this up so I didn't have to respond with a lesser answer. It is just superstition and doesn't really have any basis in reality. 

[MossMan]

It’s like the models have a build in “screw the northwest when it comes to cold” bias...Let’s bring back the MRF