January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Don't focus too much on the finer details. What I like is the overall 500mb upper level pattern. It gets pretty cold on this run though.

 

Finer details are the difference between snow and rain. Looks chilly but not arctic.

[Gradient Keeper]

Improvement, but still a long, LONG ways to go.

 

It is time for the undisputed champion of weather models to make its presence known. King EURO time! 3 minutes away

[Deweydog]

Be prepared. 06z futures are all in the red.

[ShawniganLake]

Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south

 

[Deweydog]

Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south D59DDDB7-969F-4180-80BA-B9AC6B2BD6BD.gif

Is that seriously a map for 64 hours out? Let’s stay focused on what matters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is that seriously a map for 64 hours out? Let’s stay focused on what matters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

Some people are just not team players... cmon!! Focus!!! Let’s get back to only looking at 300+ hour maps.

[Esquimalt]

FV3 is a big fat turd

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Finer details are the difference between snow and rain. Looks chilly but not arctic.

Yeah and those details don't really matter until we get right close to the event. The big picture is the upper level pattern and I liked what I saw from the GFS tonight.

[Jesse]

The heavy rain and winds were fun earlier this evening.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south

 

D59DDDB7-969F-4180-80BA-B9AC6B2BD6BD.gif

More downed trees and hydro lines for VI!

[Front Ranger]

Is that seriously a map for 64 hours out? Let’s stay focused on what matters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

At least he kept the theme of imagining what would happen if the map was moderately different.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z GEFS shows strong blocking develop very close to our sweet spot at day 14.

 

[Phil]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yeah and those details don't really matter until we get right close to the event. The big picture is the upper level pattern and I liked what I saw from the GFS tonight.

An improvement for sure, but Like DJ said, a long ways to go.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah and those details don't really matter until we get right close to the event. The big picture is the upper level pattern and I liked what I saw from the GFS tonight.

The upper level pattern at 300+ hours is about as meaningful as precip maps at 200 hours.

 

Both are too hazy to read into at that distance.

[Deweydog]

At least he kept the theme of imagining what would happen if the map was moderately different.

This is a hardline issue. Keep it 300+ or 240 extrapolated or keep your TRAP SHUT.

 

#newyearnewrules

[Front Ranger]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

An improvement for sure, but Like DJ said, a long ways to go.

Yeah definitely, like I said this is going to be a wild roller coaster ride. This is what I love about weather and I wouldn't want to have it any other way.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The upper level pattern at 300+ hours is about as meaningful as precip maps at 200 hours.

 

Both are too hazy to read into at that distance.

I'm not usually this excited about operational runs but right now we got great support from the GEFS AND EPS ensembles in the long range with the retrogression signal.

[Phil]

It does for the CONUS. Thanks to the big -EPO.

 

But it would be cool - to put it mildly - if -NAO joined the party later.

True. I’m only talking about the quick retrograde/blast for the PNW. The downstream block makes for a much more efficient mass-displacement and retrograde.

 

If there’s a vortex up there the PGF is zonal and you’re dragging weak positively-tilted troughs into BC while the cold slides east. Not ideal.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

I'm not usually this excited about operational runs but right now we got great support from the GEFS AND EPS ensembles in the long range with the retrogression signal.

The last few EPS runs seemed to be backing off on the retrogression idea. Maybe tonight’s will reverse the trend.

[Front Ranger]

This is a hardline issue. Keep it 300+ or 240 extrapolated or keep your TRAP SHUT.

 

#newyearnewrules

 

There is a difference, though, between posting a 384 map or saying a run at day 10 looks "promising" or "I like where it's headed".

 

One is based purely on model output, while the other is based on pattern progression recognition. 

[Phil]

I haven’t seen Andrew post the CFS in awhile. Hopefully it’s showing a super duper +PNA now.

[Requiem]

Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south

 

D59DDDB7-969F-4180-80BA-B9AC6B2BD6BD.gif

Every dang storm is too far north or two far south.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not usually this excited about operational runs but right now we got great support from the GEFS AND EPS ensembles in the long range with the retrogression signal.

 

That's fair. If there's a clear signal in the ensembles that far out, it can definitely mean something.

[Deweydog]

There is a difference, though, between posting a 384 map or saying a run at day 10 looks "promising" or "I like where it's headed".

 

One is based purely on model output, while the other is based on pattern progression recognition.

Flatironing in progress!

[Phil]

Dr. No is running. #Suspense

[Deweydog]

EURO es no bueno.

[Front Ranger]

Flatironing in progress!

 

The fun thing about "flatironing" is it can kind of mean whatever you want it to! Nice and easy.

 

But way to give a reasoned, well-thought out response.

[Bryant]

Not in this given situation.

Um, climo is always the most likely outcome. Unless you're wishcasting

[Requiem]

EURO es no bueno.

Cancel winter, EURO is awful. What a trashy model.

[Phil]

More Greenland/Arctic block on the Euro thru hr144, however the upstream wavetrain is a tiny bit flatter.

 

Not sure how it will end up. Cold for somebody.

[Front Ranger]

EURO es no bueno.

 

You can ALREADY tell???

[Deweydog]

The fun thing about "flatironing" is it can kind of mean whatever you want it to! Nice and easy.

 

But way to give a reasoned, well-thought out response.

Settle down. Both are a case of sticking your arm a little too far down the rabbit hole. It’s okay. It’s there and it’s fun to do.

[Deweydog]

You can ALREADY tell???

144 hour extrapolation!

[Front Ranger]

More Greenland/Arctic block on the Euro thru hr144, however the upstream wavetrain is a tiny bit flatter.

 

Not sure how it will end up. Cold for somebody.

 

Looks fairly similar to last night's run at this point.

[Front Ranger]

144 hour extrapolation!

 

Bingo. You are using the same logic as someone who "likes where it's headed" at hour 240, based on your pattern recognition skills.

 

It's not the same as just posting model output.

[Requiem]

I’m going for the CFS, which has time and time again proven much better with weather in general than the crappy EURO and GFS. It handles every snow event absolutely amazingly. Waste of time looking at any other model.

[Jesse]

I’m going for the CFS, which has time and time again proven much better with weather in general than the crappy EURO and GFS. It handles every snow event absolutely amazingly. Waste of time looking at any other model.

#lildewey