January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I'll probably be joining you soon. The models have really regressed these past couple days with the retrogression signal. The trend is bad at the moment. I'm going to give it a few more days. If the models don't show some improvement by Sunday nights 1/21 00z runs then yes I'll stick a fork in this Winter.

Either you’re hyping up long range models to a ridiculous, intellectually dishonest degree or talking about sticking a fork in winter if the models don’t do what you want over the next four days. Do you come with a rational setting or is there literally no middle ground?

[umadbro]

Either you’re hyping up long range models to a ridiculous, intellectually dishonest degree or talking about sticking a fork in winter if the models don’t do what you want over the next four days. Do you come with a rational setting or is there literally no middle ground?

Really doesn't matter either way. Its what he wants to do, so what?

[Jesse]

I do find it comical that the models basically just took it all away.

 

Obviously there's plenty of time for things to go back to it, but believing it will is just as comical to me.

Really doesn’t matter either way, it’s what people want to do. So what?

[umadbro]

Really doesn’t matter either way, it’s what people want to do. So what?

Sure thing Jesse.

[Jesse]

Sure thing Jesse.

Sure thing madbro.

[Deweydog]

Are we dropping the “u” this year?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got up to a torchy 56. Down to 45 now. Had some rain.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like another storm just popped up out of nowhere. 1" forecast for Tuesday.

[MossMan]

0z coming to a theater near you!

[Farmboy]

I guess the model downturn is responsible for the sudden light hearted, effervescent mood this place has taken?

[umadbro]

Are we dropping the “u” this year?

I hope not. Its all I really got.

[Jesse]

I hope not. Its all I really got.

Agreed that it’s important. It projects the mad onto others. Memadbro or iMadbro just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

[MossMan]

Examples of weak El Niño Februaries delivering big time region wide?

[Deweydog]

I can already tell the 00z gonna go out to D**n near 400 hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Examples of weak El Niño Februaries delivering big time region wide?

 

None?

[Deweydog]

We’re dew!!!

[MossMan]

None?

Probably.

[Esquimalt]

Examples of weak El Niño Februaries delivering big time region wide?

1757!

[Jesse]

1757!

The resultant beefed up southeastern ridge really helped turn the tides in the French and Indian War.

[stuffradio]

Are we dropping the “u” this year?

Janary?

[Esquimalt]

Aleutian low held back much further west on the 00Z thru hour 162.

[Deweydog]

Ridge is retrogressing pro style!

[ShawniganLake]

Aleutian low held back much further west on the 00Z thru hour 162.

We need our pattern progression recognition expert to tell us how this is going to end.

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful squall line from the storm that will hit you guys on Saturday dragged through the islands. The good stuff was just off the coast as the northern end of the island caused a rain shadow In Waikiki. Some moisture did fall here just not the deluge that I wanted. Shafted even over here

[van city]

We need our pattern progression recognition expert to tell us how this is going to end.

At hour 384

[Deweydog]

We need our pattern progression recognition expert to tell us how this is going to end.

Pleasantly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We need our pattern progression recognition expert to tell us how this is going to end.

Climo.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I like 2017/2018 FrontalSnowSquall better than 2018/2019!

I'm curious now, am I more extreme now than last year? I didn't know I changed that much from last year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There goes the 18Z myth again. Every expert says that the 18Z and 6Z runs are not any worse than the 0z or 12Z runs. The problem is not that it is the 18Z, the problem is that it is the GFS.

 

OTOH,it has been scoring better lately.

I read a study a few years ago that said the latest GFS run regardless if whether it's the 00z, 06z, 12z or 18z is going to be the most accurate up to 180 hours. However it went on to say the 06z and 18z lost accuracy past 180 hours and the previous 00z and 12z runs are more accurate beyond 180 hour.

 

So basically the rule of thumb I follow is the latest GFS run is the most accurate out to hour 180. For anything past hour 180, just go with the latest 00z or 12z run and ignore the 06z and 18z. Of course sometimes we can't ignore the 06z and 18z when they show the goodies in the long range. I'll try to find that study online with the verification scores they had.

[Deweydog]

Nailed it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Vaginal reconstruction.

So you're saying you had beef curtains!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I read a study a few years ago that said the latest GFS run regardless if whether it's the 00z, 06z, 12z or 18z is going to be the most accurate up to 180 hours. However it went on to say the 06z and 18z lost accuracy past 180 hours and the previous 00z and 12z runs are more accurate beyond 180 hour.

So basically the rule of thumb I follow is the latest GFS run is the most accurate out to hour 180. For anything past hour 180, just go with the latest 00z or 12z run and ignore the 06z and 18z. Of course sometimes we can't ignore the 06z and 18z when they show the goodies in the long range. I'll try to find that study online with the verification scores they had.

GFS has changed a lot since then, it is now run at a higher resolution, and the resolution change happens later. Also professional forecasters use the ensemble mean for forecasting beyond a week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Examples of weak El Niño Februaries delivering big time region wide?

This was a moderate El Nino but February 1995 delivered.

[Gradient Keeper]

Worst GFS run of the Winter. C'mon Ensembles!

 

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOw that run was a disaster!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS has changed a lot since then, it is now run at a higher resolution, and the resolution change happens later. Also professional forecasters use the ensemble mean for forecasting beyond a week.

I see. So for the operational runs, up to what time frame do you look at it for reasonable accuracy before you switch over to the ensembles?

[Esquimalt]

Ensembles not looking so good

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF in 15 minutes

 

A special message from our President about tonight's King EURO run.

"Everyone, to my friends, my foes, and everyone in between of the great and wonderful tremendous Americans of the Pacific Northwest,

 

This run is going to be bigly yuge with tremendous, just tremendous snow and the most incredible cold you've ever seen. Trust me. It'll be colder and snowier than anything you have ever seen. Just incredible and yuge. We're going to build a wall around Siberia, to Nunavut, and down through the mighty Canadian prairies and it will be the most glorious thing you've ever seen. This wall will continue to steer cold, arctic air down over our great friends in the Pacific Northwest. Just great people. Have you seen the Winter they've had recently? Not so good. No snow. Nothing. The Mountains aren't doing so good either. When it does snow there it's just incredible. The drivers, well not so good, but I have great yuge hopes for them. Have you seen this PDX WX Analysis group on social media? Just incredible. They are doing tremendous things over there. A lot of wishcasting. A lot of hopecasting. They have had to resort to a lot of silly meme and pictures. We hope to change that in the bigliest bigly yugest way possible. This is just the beginning of yugely bigly tremendous and incredible things."

 

- President Donald Trump

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!
❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Worst GFS run of the Winter. C'mon Ensembles!

 

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

WOw that run was a disaster!

The ridge seems to regurgitate over us from day 5 onward lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]