January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I wonder if the boards will be slower this year than 14-15 relative to the number of posters?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim can you post a Euro snow map now through weekend please.

[TT-SEA]

Tim can you post a Euro snow map now through weekend please.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't know what to believe anymore!

 

Is the sun yellow? Is the sky blue? Is the grass green? Ugh!

YES, they are!  I can assure you of this, along with putting any hope in models more than 120hrs out is fleeting (waste of time), and even that is being generous. You can also believe that climo will almost always win. SO keep believing, hoping and dreaming our day will come,  just not today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thank you.

[HighlandExperience]

YES, they are! I can assure you of this, along with putting any hope in models more than 120hrs out is fleeting (waste of time), and even that is being generous. You can also believe that climo will almost always win. SO keep believing, hoping and dreaming our day will come, just not today.

Our winter is ending soon. Feels like the worse winter in years. Reminds me of the winters we had back in the early 2000s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big time ensemble improvement.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just noticed EUG pulled off a 39/31 yesterday. Not bad TWL. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Big time ensemble improvement.

In the really long run, might be the best ensemble mean yet.  

[Phil]

I posted a seasonal rainfall update this morning.

 

But I do feel barely alive this week... I got sick on Monday and can't get over it. I have been either shivering uncontrollably under a pile of blankets or sweating with a fan blowing on me... back and forth. No temperature regulation as fever comes and goes. Miserable.

That’s sucks man. Sorry to hear..no neck stiffness or anything like that, right? Must be a bad flu year as it’s hit everyone in my family this year (except me, lol).

 

I’ve never actually had the flu (haven’t even had a fever since I was 12, IIRC). But I’m sure my date will come around sooner or later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s sucks man. Sorry to hear..no neck stiffness or anything like that, right? Must be a bad flu year as it’s hit everyone in my family this year (except me, lol).

 

I’ve never actually had the flu (haven’t even had a fever since I was 12, IIRC). But I’m sure my date will come around sooner or later.

 

I had a cold/sinus issue that went from the beginning of November until about a week ago. It was ridiculous. Tis' the season for health suffering. 

[MossMan]

Good lookin 18z ensembles!

[Omegaraptor]

Our winter is ending soon. Feels like the worse winter in years. Reminds me of the winters we had back in the early 2000s.

You’re probably thinking of 2002-03. Absolute dud of a winter where Portland did not record a single high below 40°F. So far, we’ve had zero this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The "big arctic blast" for the center of the country over the weekend seems to have washed out. Temps in the upper teens in KC at game time Sunday evening. Not -6 or whatever models were showing earlier in the week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Forks!

I'll probably be joining you soon. The models have really regressed these past couple days with the retrogression signal. The trend is bad at the moment. I'm going to give it a few more days. If the models don't show some improvement by Sunday nights 1/21 00z runs then yes I'll stick a fork in this Winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll probably be joining you soon. The models have really regressed these past couple days with the retrogression signal. The trend is bad at the moment. I'm going to give it a few more days. If the models don't show some improvement by Sunday nights 1/21 00z runs then yes I'll stick a fork in this Winter.

 

How bout those 18z ENSEMBLES?!

[Deweydog]

Ensemiracle!!!!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS
500mb Anomaly, 850mb Temperature, 850mb Temperature Anomaly
Animated GIFs Day 8-16

Wait for it. WAIT.... Just a bit longer...

 

Now THAT'S strong/sharp retrogression! Just one run, but of course we'll be watching to see if there is any remote chance that the GEM/ECMWF latch onto this and then to see ensemble support increase for a favorable pattern change to deliver us some Winter. I'm going to remain with my prediction I made days ago of that January 29th - February 7th time frame. It's always nice to see the models throw us a glimmer of hope in a Winter where there has been none for any appreciable Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

 

500mb Height Anomaly - https://imgur.com/HMxPJWU

 

850mb Temperature - https://imgur.com/n1W2NCc

 

850mb Temperature Anomaly - https://imgur.com/SS1vzui

[MossMan]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Seattle WA

325 PM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

 

WAZ001-503-506-507-510-516-517-180730-

/O.NEW.KSEW.HW.A.0002.190119T0000Z-190119T1800Z/

/O.CON.KSEW.WI.Y.0005.190118T0000Z-190118T1200Z/

San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-

Everett and Vicinity-Admiralty Inlet Area-North Coast-

Central Coast-

325 PM PST Thu Jan 17 2019

 

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING...

 

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a High Wind

Watch, which is in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday

morning.

 

* WIND...Southerly winds, 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

will develop tonight, easing Friday. Winds are expected to

strengthen again out of the south Friday night, 25 to 40 mph

with gusts to 55 mph.

 

* Timing...Windy conditions will develop tonight, easing Friday

morning. A second, stronger storm system will cause

strengthening winds again Friday night into Saturday morning.

 

* IMPACTS...Winds may snap tree branches and cause local power

outages.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds

this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

 

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous

high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph, or gusts of

58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest

forecasts.

 

&&

[Frontal Snowsquall]

How bout those 18z ENSEMBLES?!

Yeah but it's the 18z after all aka the Drunken Uncle. The 12z EURO EPS ensemble mean wasn't any good, that's why I didn't even bother posting it. Like I said I'll give it until Sunday night just to be sure. We will need to see everything trend back to what the 18z GEFS just showed.

[Prairiedog]

In 11.5 days will we be saying the same thing? Who knows.

Hr 8760 shows the very same thing for this date one year from now.  Everything keeps getting moved back.  Stop the madness. 

[MossMan]

Yeah but it's the 18z after all aka the Drunken Uncle. The 12z EURO EPS ensemble mean wasn't any good, that's why I didn't even bother posting it. Like I said I'll give it until Sunday night just to be sure. We will need to see everything trend back to what the 18z GEFS just showed.

I like 2017/2018 FrontalSnowSquall better than 2018/2019!

[umadbro]

Good lookin 18z ensembles!

Lets see them

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles
850mb Temperatures

 

Portland, Seattle, Yakima, Vancouver BC
DRAMATIC improvement in the long range. It means nothing though if we don't see this continue. If it does the next 3-4 days then we will have a trend we can build on. Cautiously optimistic!

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yeah but it's the 18z after all aka the Drunken Uncle. The 12z EURO EPS ensemble mean wasn't any good, that's why I didn't even bother posting it. Like I said I'll give it until Sunday night just to be sure. We will need to see everything trend back to what the 18z GEFS just showed.

There goes the 18Z myth again. Every expert says that the 18Z and 6Z runs are not any worse than the 0z or 12Z runs. The problem is not that it is the 18Z, the problem is that it is the GFS.

 

OTOH,it has been scoring better lately.

[Deweydog]

The 00z ensembles *may* look different.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z ensembles *may* look different.

That would be shocking.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 5 minutes

00z GEFS in 4 hours 38 minutes

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Courtesy of Dr. Maue, here is the first two weeks of February according to today's Euro weeklies run:

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z GFS Ensembles

850mb Temperatures

 

Portland, Seattle, Yakima, Vancouver BC

DRAMATIC improvement in the long range. It means nothing though if we don't see this continue. If it does the next 3-4 days then we will have a trend we can build on. Cautiously optimistic!

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Still betting on GREEN! OMG talk about falling off the rails temp wise . NICE

[Phil]

The "big arctic blast" for the center of the country over the weekend seems to have washed out. Temps in the upper teens in KC at game time Sunday evening. Not -6 or whatever models were showing earlier in the week.

Models do tend to rush these pattern changes.

 

The “real” cold signal (if pattern/forcing analogs have anything to say about it) starts at the end of the month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just noticed EUG pulled off a 39/31 yesterday. Not bad TWL.

Yup. EUG’s 3rd high in the 30s and just the 2nd for Springfield.

[Deweydog]

I had no idea about the February 1989 blast until the night of January 29th. Good times.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We are all just prisoners here

Of our own device"

[Deweydog]

We are all just prisoners here

Of our own device"

Stab it with our Steely knives but we just can’t kill the beast.

[Front Ranger]

My son had the real deal right after Xmas. Between that and my surgery this place was a full on convelescent home for a while.

 

What was that for again? Hip replacement?

[Front Ranger]

This could easily be a state-dependent overcorrection, as there is plenty of historical precedent for guidance to screw up over Eurasia.

 

However, if it continues this way, it will probably end up resembling February 2015, with extreme cold into the eastern half of North America, but not as much cold into the West.

 

No doubt there will be cold coming for North America, as the wavebreaking upstream and tropical forcing/SSW influence are all aligning that way, but its exact location is still quite uncertain (to state the obvious).

 

Feb 2015 ended up pretty sweet here. The first half of the month was an absolute torch, and then the second half was cold and very snowy.

 

Boulder set their February record with 54.6" of snow that month. Looking back at my records, I had about 35" of snow. A 76/48 day on the 8th, and then a 12/5 day on the 23rd. 

 

Crazy month.

[Deweydog]

What was that for again? Hip replacement?

Vaginal reconstruction.

[MossMan]

What was that for again? Hip replacement?

Double hip and a knee replacement.

[Jesse]

Vaginal reconstruction.

Should we call you Martha now?

[Front Ranger]

Vaginal reconstruction.

Almost went there but figured you probably would.