January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Requiem]

#lildewey

I’m glad others are better at reading sarcasm than I am haha

 

But I’m all seriousness I like the 00Z trend from what it seems.

[Jesse]

Some all around improvements on the 00z GFS ensemble. Wetter/more active in the short to mid range, more cold members showing up in the long range.

 

[Phil]

Hudson Bay cold pool gets dislodged and is hurdling south towards MT/ND by D7.

 

[MossMan]

This should do the trick to shake up these weather patterns!

https://komonews.com/news/offbeat/totos-africa-is-playing-on-infinite-loop-in-mystery-location-down-in-africa

[BLI snowman]

Hudson Bay cold pool gets dislodged and is hurdling south towards MT/ND by D7.

 

 

Sucks seeing those states consistently see colder weather than us here. 

[Deweydog]

Bingo. You are using the same logic as someone who "likes where it's headed" at hour 240, based on your pattern recognition skills.

 

It's not the same as just posting model output.

It’s pretty much the same.

[MossMan]

Sucks seeing those states consistently see colder weather than us here.

All of us should put our money together and buy a huge chunk of property in northern Minnesota and all take a party bus there to party in the cold each time the Hudson cold pool gets dislodged.

[BLI snowman]

All of us should put our money together and buy a huge chunk of property in northern Minnesota and all take a party bus there to party in the cold each time the Hudson cold pool gets dislodged.

 

Bemidji sounds like a nice place to freeze to death.

[Deweydog]

Bemidji sounds like a nice place to freeze to death.

A partner of mine went to school there. He said it was cold in the winters.

[BLI snowman]

A partner of mine went to school there. He said it was cold in the winters.

 

Sounds like an interesting microclimate.

[MossMan]

Bemidji sounds like a nice place to freeze to death.

Well at least we would all die doing something we love and constantly stay up late dreaming about. COLD WEATHER!!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That's fair. If there's a clear signal in the ensembles that far out, it can definitely mean something.

As long as their showing a solid retrogression signal I like our chances to score somewhere down the line.

[MossMan]

As long as their showing a solid retrogression signal I like our chances to score somewhere down the line.

Tell your friend Frosty to march is fat a** down past the Canadian border.

[Phil]

This run would probably get there around D13-14, but obviously extrapolating like that is pointless at this range.

 

That’s some seriously cold air moving into the heartland though..850mb temperatures of -41C plunge deep into the Midwest.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Another crazy day of model riding with lots of ups and downs. I'll try to stay up for the night shift but no guarantees tonight. I'm running low on energy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Tell your friend Frosty to march is fat a** down past the Canadian border.

He's trying lol!

[Deweydog]

Sounds like an interesting microclimate.

It’s the Covington of Minnesota.

[GHweatherChris]

Told ya so...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Playing songs that I listened to leading to the Dec 2008 blast (in late Nov before it showed up in the models). I’m surprised how many songs have been forgotten from 2008.

[Deweydog]

Playing songs that I listened to leading to the Dec 2008 blast (in late Nov before it showed up in the models). I’m surprised how many songs have been forgotten from 2008.

Hope you like BSF while we get our snowy asses handed to us...

[Omegaraptor]

Guaranteed 0.75” on Friday, most likely an inch+. Thursday and Saturday combined will likely get another 0.75”.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hope you like BSF while we get our snowy asses handed to us...

Oh I fully expect it.

[Bryant]

Playing songs that I listened to leading to the Dec 2008 blast (in late Nov before it showed up in the models). I’m surprised how many songs have been forgotten from 2008.

You already wrote off this winter silly

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You already wrote off this winter silly

Oh I don’t expect anything to happen. Was going through my years of music that I have and had forgotten a ton of songs from 08.

[ShawniganLake]

[MikeInEverett]

06z much less amplified than 00z at hour 228.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

AB8BF47B-C60C-4E34-910C-30B315331FEB.png

Still showing a good retrogression signal.

[MikeInEverett]

What a difference one run makes

 

00z:

 

 

06z:

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What a difference one run makes

 

00z:

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_48.png

 

06z:

 

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_47.png

It's common to see huge swings between GFS operational runs this far out. I wouldn't be too worried about it right now.

[MikeInEverett]

It's common to see huge swings between GFS operational runs this far out. I wouldn't be too worried about it right now.

This is common knowledge now, I'm not a noob. Just pointing out the difference between the two

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This is common knowledge now, I'm not a noob. Just pointing out the difference between the two

Okay, yeah there's definitely a big difference between the 00z and 06z. The ridge does finally start to retrograde at the end of the run.

[MossMan]

There will be a lot of people mowing grass by the end of January/first of February...guess I better get busy with repairing/prepping my mower.

[ShawniganLake]

Still showing a good retrogression signal.

3rd or 4th consecutive run to back off on the retrogression signal.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3rd or 4th consecutive run to back off on the retrogression signal.

It still shows retrogression though.

[The Swamp]

Wolf

[Farmboy]

Dizzying.

[TT-SEA]

Doing a rainfall update at the end of a dry period here per Jared's instructions.   

 

Total rain overnight here was .05 and total rain for the last week has been .05

 

But the rainy season has been almost perfectly normal here in terms of total precipitation and days with precipitation.

 

Using the Cedar Lake station (2 miles east of here):

 

October   9.91  (+0.29)

November   13.70  (-0.24)

December   15.80  (+1.75)

First half of January   5.69 (-1.01)

 

Total rain since October 1st is now 45.10 inches which is +0.79 above normal.

 

But here is the most important statistic to me personally... number of dry days.

 

October - 14  (normal is 15)

November - 10  (normal is 11)

December - 8 (normal is 10)

First half of January - 8  (normal is 5)

 

A total of 40 dry days this rainy season so far... and the normal is 41 dry days to this point.

 

No complaints from me at all in terms of rain this year.    This rainy season has been the definition of climo in my area.   And the dry periods have been evenly spread out each month.   

 

So much better than some of the persistently wet winters we have had recently.     I much prefer climo here!  

[Esquimalt]

6Z ensembles were a bit of a letdown. Retrogression signal remainw

[kokaneekidz]

All of us should put our money together and buy a huge chunk of property in northern Minnesota and all take a party bus there to party in the cold each time the Hudson cold pool gets dislodged.

We could all learn how to ice fish....

[ShawniganLake]

6Z ensembles were a bit of a letdown. Retrogression signal remainw

Probably the worst ensemble in a couple of days anyways.