January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles were another small step in the right direction.

[BLI snowman]

Tied for the month since PDX hit 31 before midnight last night.

 

PDX rulez SEA drulez

[Jesse]

PDX rulez SEA drulez

They both kinda suck and are pretty unrepresentative of their respective metro areas.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ensembles were another small step in the right direction.

 

2 members dropping to the Magic 8 Ball 850s.

[Jesse]

So frustrating how Springfield is so much warmer almost all the time. Terrible location.

I think you might just have a terrible thermometer.

 

Plus, the differences between EUG and your location are probably pretty negligible when it counts (like when it’s snowing). I imagine you have a little elevation on them so that would probably help you if anything.

[Jesse]

Definitely liking the trends on 12z GFS ensembles.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think you might just have a terrible thermometer.

 

Plus, the differences between EUG and your location are probably pretty negligible when it counts (like when it’s snowing). I imagine you have a little elevation on them so that would probably help you if anything.

 

Fair enough, I'm simply speaking for statistical purposes in terms of viewing the cold season historically later on. We have only had 1 high in the 30s here but EUG has had more IIRC, that's all. We are always just at the mercy of the upper-level conditions here when it comes to snow.  We tend to do a lot better with events when we are already cold and the jet gets suppressed to bring systems into southern Oregon, otherwise, we typically miss out.

 

And sadly, I can't afford an accurate thermometer at this time, so I just average the 4-5 weather stations here in town.

[Jesse]

Fair enough, I'm simply speaking for statistical purposes in terms of viewing the cold season historically later on. We have only had 3 highs in the 30s here but EUG had had more IIRC, that's all. We are always just at the mercy of the upper-level conditions here when it comes to snow. We tend to do a lot better with events when we are already cold and the jet gets suppressed to bring systems into southern Oregon, otherwise, we typically miss out.

 

And sadly, I can't afford an accurate thermometer at this time, so I just average the 4-5 weather stations here in town.

Just base your winter stats off of EUG.

 

Averaging wunderground stations seems like kind of a crapshoot.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone post a Euro snow map for wed through sun please.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sherman pass.

[Jesse]

Sherman pass.

Nice. Trees look really brown in the second picture. Maybe those are western larches that have shed their needles?

 

The mountains in that area almost remind me of something out of Vermont or New Hampshire.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nice. Trees look really brown in the second picture. Maybe those are western larches that have shed their needles?

The mountains in that area almost remind me of something out of Vermont or New Hampshire.

Those trees are Tamarack. Its a beautiful area for sure. We went on a 150 mile loop yesterday and seen maybe 3 cars. Thats the best part about this area.

[ShawniganLake]

Can someone post a Euro snow map for wed through sun please.

That’s not an option on weatherbell

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just base your winter stats off of EUG.

 

Averaging wunderground stations seems like kind of a crapshoot.

 

Anywhere I can get the real-time EUG weather station?

[Jesse]

Those trees are Tamarack. Its a beautiful area for sure. We went on a 150 mile loop yesterday and seen maybe 3 cars. Thats the best part about this area.

That’s what I was thinking. What loop was it? We crossed the northern part of Kettle Range last July between hwy 395 and Curlew (en route to Canada). Was really impressed with the scenery and remoteness. We saw a moose too.

[Jesse]

Anywhere I can get the real-time EUG weather station?

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KEUG&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That’s what I was thinking. What loop was it? We crossed the northern part of Kettle Range last July between hwy 395 and Curlew (en route to Canada). Was really impressed with the scenery and remoteness. We saw a moose too.

We went from curlew over boulder creek then down into colville and back over sherman into republic then over waucondo pass.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 39 with blazing sunshine. Beautiful day.

[Jesse]

We went from curlew over boulder creek then down into colville and back over sherman into republic then over waucondo pass.

That’s awesome. The Boulder Creek road is the route we took so I am familiar with part of your loop.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KEUG&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

Thank you 

[Perturbed Member]

 

This low moves ENE for a fairly nice track for NW OR/ SW WA, don't seem to have a cool enough airmass though. Something to track at least. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

ecmwf_1_1_2019.png

 

This low moves ENE for a fairly nice track for NW OR/ SW WA, don't seem to have a cool enough airmass though. Something to track at least. 

 

Perfect location if we were already cold. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like probably 10-15” of rain headed for Vancouver Island the next few days.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Perfect location if we were already cold. 

 

Yeah, it'll end up as a chunky rain setup for most unless we can get a bit colder. 

[HighlandExperience]

FCF73E40-290B-4430-8CEB-894DF419EB5E.png

Looks awesome for Puget Sound.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks awesome for Puget Sound.

Looks awesome until you look closer at the models.  I went to Weather.us, and looked at that time frame.  It never shows pure snow anywhere in the Sound during that time (Tuesday).   During the time when the alleged snow is supposed to fall, especially in the South Sound, the temps are above freezing and the "significant weather" shows rain.  Earlier the "significant weather" showed mixed rain and snow with temps in the mid-30's.  

 

So the "total snow fall" is a computer glitch, not representative of what the model actually shows.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, Springfield hit 40 but EUG is still in the low 30s.  We broke out of the low clouds so that's what did it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well it is official!  We look to be moving to Spokane in June. Looks like I will be monitoring and reporting from a much different climate than the swamp next fall and winter. I am so pumped!!         

[TT-SEA]

Well it is official! We look to be moving to Spokane in June. Looks like I will be monitoring and reporting from a much different climate than the swamp next fall and winter. I am so pumped!! :)

Wow!

 

Congratulations.    The old neighborhood will miss you on the 4th of July.  

[ShawniganLake]

Looks awesome until you look closer at the models. I went to Weather.us, and looked at that time frame. It never shows pure snow anywhere in the Sound during that time (Tuesday). During the time when the alleged snow is supposed to fall, especially in the South Sound, the temps are above freezing and the "significant weather" shows rain. Earlier the "significant weather" showed mixed rain and snow with temps in the mid-30's.

 

So the "total snow fall" is a computer glitch, not representative of what the model actually shows.

I think we are over thinking things.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Well it is official!  We look to be moving to Spokane in June. Looks like I will be monitoring and reporting from a much different climate than the swamp next fall and winter. I am so pumped!!         

Good for you.  Have fun exploring the region, including Coeur D Alene, Mt. Spokane, and you are closer to Northeast Washington.  Oh, and if you and anyone else in your family likes gardens and flowers, you have to go to Manito Park.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I think we are over thinking things.

 

Actually looking at "Total Snowfall" maps and taking them seriously is under thinking things.  People have been left with the impression that the Euro shows a major snowfall for Puget Sound when in fact it does not.

[Deweydog]

Well it is official! We look to be moving to Spokane in June. Looks like I will be monitoring and reporting from a much different climate than the swamp next fall and winter. I am so pumped!!

Nice! I am a big fan of the Spokane area. Have you found a place yet?

[MossMan]

Who needs snow when you have mud!

[Omegaraptor]

40° here. Our streak without a sub-40 high continues.

[BLI snowman]

18z operational is closer to being interesting early next week than the 12z. A smidge too warm before the pattern shifts.

[ShawniganLake]

Actually looking at "Total Snowfall" maps and taking them seriously is under thinking things. People have been left with the impression that the Euro shows a major snowfall for Puget Sound when in fact it does not.

Sure. But it’s a snowfall map from day 7. And it says right on them that it assumes a 10:1 ratio which won’t happen with that type of setup. And whose to say the glitch isn’t with the precip type maps being on 6 hour intervals. What if it snowed for 3hrs and rained for 3 hrs.

[HighlandExperience]

Sure. But it’s a snowfall map from day 7. And it says right on them that it assumes a 10:1 ratio which won’t happen with that type of setup. And whose to say the glitch isn’t with the precip type maps being on 6 hour intervals. What if it snowed for 3hrs and rained for 3 hrs.

Right still a few days away. Lots can change. Sure is nice to see though. I remember last Christmas the euro showed widespread 1-4 inches over Puget Sound a few days before the event. It was pretty spot on. I don’t think the other models showed much of anything.

 

Potential is there for something good.

[Perturbed Member]

18z operational is closer to being interesting early next week than the 12z. A smidge too warm before the pattern shifts.

 

Better than the 12z but not nearly as sexy as the 06z was. The euro also showing something kind of interesting during that period at least gives some hope IMO.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Sure. But it’s a snowfall map from day 7. And it says right on them that it assumes a 10:1 ratio which won’t happen with that type of setup. And whose to say the glitch isn’t with the precip type maps being on 6 hour intervals. What if it snowed for 3hrs and rained for 3 hrs.

With a southerly flow and snow levels rising to 6000 feet, whatever snow wouldn't last for very long at all.