January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Omegaraptor]

I would love to see something like the mid 1950s happen again.  1954 - 1956 only had 3 or 4 months average above normal.

 

Not with those awful crummers I wouldn't.

[snow_wizard]

Day 15 Ensemble model DISagreement!  Roll the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The ECMWF handles the MJO much differently.  That is why it stays colder for us.  In fact the ECMWF shows the MJO potentially becoming very favorable again later in the month.

[snow_wizard]

Not with those awful crummers I wouldn't.

 

Say what?

[snow_wizard]

This looks amazing... quite jealous

 

I'm beyond being jealous of things like that.  I am just going to play the hand I've been dealt on this stuff and live with it.

[Omegaraptor]

Say what?

 

1954 didn't have a summer and 1955 had one month of summer. I would prefer to have an actual summer.

[Esquimalt]

Full overrunning event here on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp isn't dropping off as fast tonight with the high clouds.

[Requiem]

I swear, if the Puget Sound gets another wind event after Thursday before we get one, I'll be J-E-A-L-O-U-S!

[ShawniganLake]

Full overrunning event here on the GFS.

That’s the type of setup that dumps like 12-16” up here then turns to rain.

[Requiem]

GFS shows a very interesting and dynamic storm almost in-line with what the EURO shows for this weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing earth shattering on the 00z.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 15 Ensemble model DISagreement! Roll the dice.

 

 

 

 

 

I rolled some dice and this is what I got.....

 

[ShawniganLake]

The cold does hang around in the BC interior much longer on the 0z

[Requiem]

Nothing earth shattering on the 00z.

 

Hasn't finished running yet though.

[Esquimalt]

That’s the type of setup that dumps like 12-16” up here then turns to rain.

How much for Vic? Feb 2017 featured one like that and we got 2 or 3 inches at my house.

[Gradient Keeper]

So close! The battle of North v.s. South has begun and it sure popped up on the models quickly if you ask me. That tends to happen rather suddenly. C'MON!!!!

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 8 minutes

[Esquimalt]

So close! The battle of North v.s. South has begun and it sure popped up on the models quickly if you ask me. That tends to happen rather suddenly. C'MON!!!!

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 8 minutes

A lot of potential being shown around hour 222 with lots of cold air coming down.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Bryant]

Hasn't finished running yet though.

 

I'm curious... a 384 hour forecast could show a massive windstorm for the Puget Sound, and even though you know a 384 hour map means nothing, you would still wish for it to trend south and tell us how jealous you'd be. Why?

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm curious... a 384 hour forecast could show a massive windstorm for the Puget Sound, and even though you know a 384 hour map means nothing, you would still wish for it to trend south and tell us how jealous you'd be. Why?

I wish the GFS ran out to 768 hours like the CFS. Just think of all the fun and hijinks to be had!

[Esquimalt]

I wish the GFS ran out to 768 hours like the CFS. Just think of all the fun and hijinks to be had!

We'd all spend so much more time model riding!

[Bryant]

I wish the GFS ran out to 768 hours like the CFS. Just think of all the fun and hijinks to be had!

Long live the CFS!

[ShawniganLake]

How much for Vic? Feb 2017 featured one like that and we got 2 or 3 inches at my house.

Reminds me a bit of January 2011. How’d you do with that

[Andrew.]

I'm sorry, an arctic what?

An arctic front, the leading southern edge of an arctic air mass dropping south over us.

[Requiem]

I'm curious... a 384 hour forecast could show a massive windstorm for the Puget Sound, and even though you know a 384 hour map means nothing, you would still wish for it to trend south and tell us how jealous you'd be. Why?

 

Please show me where I've done that on a storm past 200 hours and perhaps I'll take your statement into account

 

Also, understand that I'm D**n tired of the wind advisories and wind warnings for Seattle. You can't complain or understand because you've had three separate storms in which wind gusts reached over 50 mph in December alone.

[Esquimalt]

Reminds me a bit of January 2011. How’d you do with that

I lived in SD at that time...at the Vic airport there was about 13 cm. That winter delivered thou!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh D**n. A near miss in the long range!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Please show me where I've done that on a storm past 200 hours and perhaps I'll take your statement into account

 

Also, understand that I'm d**n tired of the wind advisories and wind warnings for Seattle. You can't complain or understand because you've had three separate storms in which wind gusts reached over 50 mph in December alone.

I think people in British Columbia, Skagit County, and Whatcom County who went days and weeks without power, lost all their food, had their Christmas ruined, etc. will gladly give you their next wind storm.

[Esquimalt]

I think people in British Columbia, Skagit County, and Whatcom County who went days and weeks without power, lost all their food, had their Christmas ruined, etc. will gladly give you their next wind storm.

My 85 year old grandma was out of power for two whole days.  To say she was miserable is an understatement.

[TT-SEA]

Oh d**n. A near miss in the long range!

Yeah... it sucks that these events are perfectly modeled through 384 hours every time now.

 

Or maybe the eventual reality will be absolutely nothing even remotely resembling what it shows now? Maybe??

[Requiem]

I think people in British Columbia, Skagit County, and Whatcom County who went days and weeks without power, lost all their food, had their Christmas ruined, etc. will gladly give you their next wind storm.

 

They can, just like all the people in New England and the Mid-Atlantic who have had accidents, freezing temperatures for days, no power, and loss of revenue to thousands of businesses every time they have a major snowstorm. Weather is a double-edged sword, and I understand that. There can never be "exciting" weather without consequences and effects. I don't enjoy them, and I sure as heck don't glorify them. The fun of a storm isn't about seeing juicy damage numbers for me.

[GHweatherChris]

Please show me where I've done that on a storm past 200 hours and perhaps I'll take your statement into account

 

Also, understand that I'm d**n tired of the wind advisories and wind warnings for Seattle. You can't complain or understand because you've had three separate storms in which wind gusts reached over 50 mph in December alone.

Time to temper your expectations, you will not always get what you want no matter what society says, weather events included obviously, yes, I went there....

[ShawniganLake]

I lived in SD at that time...at the Vic airport there was about 13 cm. That winter delivered thou!

South Dakota?

 

The January 2011 storm was pretty marginal. I drive from downtown to Duncan around 11pm that night. Mixed rain and snow at Quadra and hillside. Heavy wet snow accumulation started around the Mackenzie overpass with several inches and poor road conditions in Langford. Whiteout conditions from Goldstream north. I lived in Duncan then and had about 13”. My parents in Shawnigan reported 17” IIRC. It was 50 and raining the next day though.

[stuffradio]

Vancouver BC wet and mild in 2018

 

[Requiem]

Time to temper your expectations, you will not always get what you want no matter what society says, weather events included onvoisly, yes, I went there....

 

Of course. Some day perhaps I can go to a climate where things actually happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course. Some day perhaps I can go to a climate where things actually happen.

 

I lived in Oklahoma for about 4 years. It was much more interesting than here. Of course I also lived in Oklahoma which is punishment in itself.

[Esquimalt]

South Dakota?

 

The January 2011 storm was pretty marginal. I drive from downtown to Duncan around 11pm that night. Mixed rain and snow at Quadra and hillside. Heavy wet snow accumulation started around the Mackenzie overpass with several inches and poor road conditions in Langford. Whiteout conditions from Goldstream north. I lived in Duncan then and had about 13”. My parents in Shawnigan reported 17” IIRC. It was 50 and raining the next day though.

That’s insane! The wet bulb effect must have been making the difference for a lot of people.

 

My dad got a job down in south Dakota between 2010 and 2012. So I missed out on a few good events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can already tell the FV-3 will be colder. 

[Jesse]

1954 didn't have a summer and 1955 had one month of summer. I would prefer to have an actual summer.

I’d take a repeat if it meant avoiding another smoke filled heatfest.

 

Sadly a July 1954 repeat is probably just about as likely as a January 1950 repeat.

[Timmy]

Vancouver BC wet and mild in 2018

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-01 at 9.04.50 PM.png

none of those numbers make any sense to me, but I’ll take your word for it.