Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[Money]

NAM/3K, RGEM, GFS, ICON all show 12+ here.

 

Pretty crazy

[East Dubzz]

NAM/3K, RGEM, GFS, ICON all show 12+ here.

 

Pretty crazy

It’s seemed pretty obvious for a while that whoever ended up in the jackpot zone would get smoked, and it appears that could be in your area. Now you just need the Euro to get on board. I don’t know if the Euro will completely cave, but I think we’ll see it take at least another step in that direction.

[Hawkeye]

The low track is way too far north for most of Iowa, but we could still get something.  The RGEM has a decent front-end thump and the 3knam has a nice burst of heavy snow along the cold front.

 

It sure would have been great to get another 6-12" on top of the already good snow pack.  A deep snow pack is rare here.  It's next to impossible to exceed a foot.

[East Dubzz]

The low track is way too far north for most of Iowa, but we could still get something. The RGEM has a decent front-end thump and the 3knam has a nice burst of heavy snow along the cold front.

Yeah, main hope from this storm is to avoid rain & ice.

[bud2380]

Sure looks like the GFS had a better handle on the track than the Euro. It seems that whenever the Euro is good for the Iowa City area it’s wrong. Oh well. On the plus side the kids might actually have school for a change Monday.

[St Paul Storm]

Looking at 1”/hr rates for a while if the GFS and GEM are correct.

[badgerwx]

Hoping still for a decent amount of 6" here in SW Wisco

[gosaints]

Still not fully sampled

[james1976]

0z tonight will be fully sampled

[Money]

Gem crushes eastern WI

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012612&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gdps

[gosaints]

That's a jump south on the ggem

[Hawkeye]

GEM is also a nice front-end thump for CR/IC.

[East Dubzz]

That's a jump south on the ggem

Yup, but not huge. Slightly weaker SLP.

[Niko]

12z GFS was south if I am not mistaken.

 

12z GGEM is south too

[East Dubzz]

12z GFS was south if I am not mistaken.

 

12z GGEM is south too

Slightly, yes. Not massive. But it made a big difference for my snow amount. Jumped from regular advisory level snows to borderline warning snows.

 

GEM has a low party right IMBY at HR 48! All are invited

[Tony]

Gem crushes eastern WI

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012612&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gdps

LM is really going to crank for you guys

[Snowshoe]

Might finally fill in the snow hole! Fingers crossed!

[indianajohn]

So is GFS and GGEM caving to the euro???

[Tony]

Let's keep baby stepping it South so more of us can get into the higher totals. Money and gosaints will do well either way

[Niko]

CMC is south also.

[East Dubzz]

Live look at all the snow lovers up in Minnesota/Wisconsin..

[East Dubzz]

So is GFS and GGEM caving to the euro???

Noooo. GFS was barely south. It’s been extremely consistent.

[Stacsh]

Live look at all the snow lovers up in Minnesota/Wisconsin..

 

And Michigan!

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS top

12z GEM bottom

[Niko]

Slightly, yes. Not massive. But it made a big difference for my snow amount. Jumped from regular advisory level snows to borderline warning snows.

 

GEM has a low party right IMBY at HR 48! All are invited

Awesome!

[Niko]

So is GFS and GGEM caving to the euro???

Euro is not too accurate w clippers, whereas w a Colorado low, it handles the situation much better. I'd stick w the GFS and GGEM w clipper type systems.

[james1976]

Well GFS puts me back to advisory snows so thats an improvement anyway.

[Niko]

Looking forward to the 0z runs tonight. They will have a better sampling of this storm, hopefully.

[jaster220]

Yup. If the Ukie held, I’d say maybe not. But those two are usually pretty hooked together.

 

I didn't say when it would cave, but since it didn't cave at 0z maybe it's gonna be last to the N party. If it manages to give all the others a smack-down, I'll have to bow to the King and not sweat the others

[Money]

Ukie at hr 48

 

996 on the WI/IL boarder

 

Similar to 0z but 1 mb stronger

[St Paul Storm]

Fv3 not budging.

[gosaints]

Fv3 not budging.

I.am.hoping they are getting the kinks out of that thing

[jaster220]

06z Euro still wants to keep things interesting across N IL...something that I'm noticing is the Euro has maintained the idea of keeping the heaviest WAA snows closer to the SLP and not as far north as some of the other models. 

 

Dang! GO Euro! Either way, even if this goes the NAM's way and it's more of a short thumper, when this thing is cranking you're gonna know it's legit winter. I have about 5" here in Marshall and it's a gorgeous morning as I shoveled my drive and walk in sunny and 5F temps. The storm unfolding will be like NMI when cold clippers came on top of a solid snowpack. Good luck over there and keep reeling this south on our behalf

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012612&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3

 

18-22 inches in eastern WI

 

Even gosaints/SPS gets hit good

[St Paul Storm]

That’s pretty ^

[WBadgersW]

Big uptick for the city of MKE on the FV3. Went from 4.5" to 9".

[jaster220]

Let's keep baby stepping it South so more of us can get into the higher totals. Money and gosaints will do well either way

 

Got my vote and yeah, they'll be fine

[East Dubzz]

Similar to the regular GFS, the FV3 was just a tick fuerther south, which helps boost my total a little. Feeling a little more comfortable about a 3-6” snowfall.

[East Dubzz]

Ukie at hr 48

 

996 on the WI/IL boarder

 

Similar to 0z but 1 mb stronger

As far as SLP placement, it’s literally almost identical to the 00z run. Kinda crazy.

[East Dubzz]

GEFS essentially the same as the last run as far as track, but maybe slightly more juiced.