Niko Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 So far... forecasts are calling for couple of inches of snow for my area and then, changing to a mix, perhaps even plain rain. I am expecting more changes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 21 imby? Book it! Sunday/Monday map then both events combined Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 I have this sinking feeling that this is going to be another rain/freezing rain maker for most on this forum with very little or only minor accumulations of snow. Trends unfortunately seem to be pointing in that direction. I don't know, I felt that way looking at GFS but even FV3, as garbage as it is, has backed off all the rain for my area. I said earlier it has had a habit of doing this all winter long, and the 06z run shows exactly that. A massive back tracking on the rain and mix in this system, and also later systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 This thing is already being sampled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z GFS weaker and further SE. My goodness the models are really struggle with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 This thing is already being sampledI’m assuming this is coming from the system about to drop snow on Seattle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z GFS weaker and further SE. My goodness the models are really struggle with this one.There are alot of players on the field from the 1st wave to the kicker over the pacific. They are gonna be everywhere for awhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z GFS weaker and further SE. My goodness the models are really struggle with this one.Although, it does bomb out as it tracks through the GL's which many ensemble members are showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 There are alot of players on the field from the 1st wave to the kicker over the pacific. They are gonna be everywhere for awhileNo doubt. I expect changes, but the inconsistency every single model run is just interesting. That said, that run gives at least advisory level snow from HWY 20 and north, and really gives a good snowfall to the areas that just got hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Didn’t realize there was such a short break between the Sunday storm and this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Last night the 00z GGEM was N and today its back S....models are struggling with the blocking HP across SE Canada...and how far the energy digs in the Plains. Today's 12z GGEM...including the Sun/Mon wave... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 I'm going to be selfish and pray this storm our way... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 It seems to me that modeling has been fairly consistent (or as consistent as forecast models can be) with the snow for Sunday, but have been all over the place with the system for Monday-Tuesday. Interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z Ukie looks like the GGEM and digs the energy way S towards S MO/S IL by Hr 96 and then amps it up cutting NE into the GL's into a 996mb storm just NW of Toronto... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 I’m assuming this is coming from the system about to drop snow on Seattle?Right... What is interesting is the the sunday lobe of vorticity is offshore currently in the pacific while the monday/tuesday deal is already on shore 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 It seems to me that modeling has been fairly consistent (or as consistent as forecast models can be) with the snow for Sunday, but have been all over the place with the system for Monday-Tuesday. Interesting!It helps that the Sunday system is much less complex and also a widespread light to moderate snow event. Much easier for the models to get a grasp on that, as there is much less moving pieces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 The ensembles and the GFS are not on the same page Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 The ensembles and the GFS are not on the same pageNope. Ensembles are the way to go with this one to see the trends. These op runs aren’t going to tell the story right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Right... What is interesting is the the sunday lobe of vorticity is offshore currently in the pacific while the monday/tuesday deal is already on shoreInteresting. Is the piece of energy for the Monday Tuesday system currently up in Canada, or am I looking at it incorrectly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z FV3...started the NW trend.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Interesting. Is the piece of energy for the Monday Tuesday system currently up in Canada, or am I looking at it incorrectly?yes its in canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 At this moment, I don’t think we have a trend anywhere. Essentially spaghetti at a wall. Wide spread yet. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z FV3...started the NW trend.... Excuse my ignorance, but what NW trend is there? Seems as if most models have gone further SE in their 12z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Excuse my ignorance, but what NW trend is there? Seems as if most models have gone further SE in their 12z runs.that model itself was further south in its prior run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z Euro looks further SE, I believe. 996mb SLP around very NE Missouri/far SE Iowa at HR 96. Had a 994mb low in central Iowa at HR 108 on the 00z run. Still waiting for the precip maps to load. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 A lot of people would be pretty happy with this run. Really hate how the I can’t get Kuchera snowfall in 24-hour increments, because it gets confusing with both system’s snowfalls included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Tried to include a map that shows the snow for everyone. Here’s what the 12z Euro has, which includes both storms. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z euro 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 My God that would be epic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 This would make for a wild three weeks of weather. Record cold, rain, icy BS, then a ton of snow. Hope some more of this turns around, extended forecast looks awful here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Tried to include a map that shows the snow for everyone. Here’s what the 12z Euro has, which includes both storms.Ummmmm. Holy *!$ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 ha ha eye candy... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 That is some sort of parade of storms through the whole run of the EURO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Could do without the freezing rain the Euro is showing for N. IL but otherwise good 12z runs. Big numbers also being thrown out for this sub-forum on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 If the Euro holds - glacier warnings may be needed for MN, IA and WI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 That 12z euro, the entire run. Wow. Must be 15” or more for 95% of the sub through 240 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 10" here at the end of the Euro run. Nothing to write home about, but it'd be a pretty nice week and a half before sun angle starts to become an issue later in the month & above average temps mean more consistent 50s. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z Euro/JMA pretty darn similar in placement with the SLP and qpf... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Man, this pattern is insane! It is so strange seeing the AFD and every one has the form of talking of the potential for a storm in a few days and then fades to yet another potential storm in the longer range. Have not seen something like this for a while. SPS and I will take an order of the Euro, to go, please. On another note, the storm yesterday left all the evergreens around here covered and it is stunning with the sun out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 GRR is seeing mostly snow here with the potential track. Cold air in place blah blah. Probably an ice storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.