May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[GHweatherChris]

Huh? He brought up flames (and claimed they weren’t a prerequisite in gaseous combustion).

 

I argued for smoldering/incomplete combustion.

 

That was the whole debate.

You created a debate that never existed. Let it go.

[Phil]

I said this yesterday.

 

Smoldering wood embers aren’t flames.

 

I don’t get why this is so hard to grasp?

[Phil]

And this.

 

Embers can smolder in dry air pockets where fuel moisture remains dry..but flames don’t burn underground. They’d smother out.

[GHweatherChris]

And this.

 

 

You said that in response like he said there was flames underground, he did not, can't deny that. He never said there was flames underground but yet you created your own argument like he did, poor form phil.

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA has picked up a whopping trace of precip today.

I’m sure it will update with more. All the other stations around it are at .05-.06. That’s more than six times as much:)

[jcmcgaffey]

It has been raining since about 3pm but it is so warm/dry out that it is evaporating just as quick as it rains

[TacomaWaWx]

Hoping for some type of a convective event soon. There was some Thunderstorms here with decent sized ice pellets on 11/27 of last year but nothing since then.

[TacomaWaWx]

It has been raining since about 3pm but it is so warm/dry out that it is evaporating just as quick as it rains

Yeah it really hasn’t amounted to much yet.

[Jesse]

Facts are a bítch. Learn to deal, kk?

I have zero interest in maintaining a “reputation” on a weather forum (whatever that means). I only care about what is and isn’t scientifically accurate. The last thing I thought I’d be debating on a western forum was the definition of fire, and be attacked over it (for multiple weeks) but then again, nothing surprises me here anymore.

If that triggers you, not my problem. Enjoy your trip to Europe.

For the record I don’t actually want to see you on mod preview. It would be nice if the rules here were applied the same way to everyone, though. That was more my point.

 

As for the “debate”, it seems like the flame versus smoldering thing is pretty semantics based. I don’t think you and Shawnigan even necessarily disagree. It seems like all that happened was you doubted the ability for combustion to happen under the snow period at first and then rather than just admitting that you learned something new you moved the argument to be more about the strict definition of a flame, then the six to one half dozen to the other stuff really took off. I will readily admit that I wasn’t aware that fires could smolder under snow pack until Shawnigan posted that article.

[Phil]

You said that in response like he said there was flames underground, he did not, can't deny that. He never said there was flames underground but yet you created your own argument like he did, poor form phil.

That’s because he adopted my argument from last month after telling me I was wrong. I assumed he believes a smoldering fire works the same way an open fire does. Which it doesn’t.

 

This was the context of my first post.

 

[Phil]

I’m probably going to be lambasted again in here tonight over the smoldering embers/flame thing.

 

I was working under the assumption that we were debating open gaseous fires, which always have flames. If we weren’t, that’s on me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Are we going to be burning the midnight oil over this tonight?

[Kayla]

If someone needed to provide an example of egoism, these last 5 pages would do it!

[Phil]

Are we going to be burning the midnight oil over this tonight?

Your midnight oil is my 3AM oil, so I hope not. And I have to wake up at 5AM for a job tomorrow. Last thing I want is to be half asleep and take a chainsaw kickback to the chest.

 

At least this place would finally be rid of me.

[GHweatherChris]

I’m probably going to be lambasted again in here tonight over the smoldering embers/flame thing.

 

I was working under the assumption that we were debating open gaseous fires, which always have flames. If we weren’t, that’s on me.

It's on you, get some sleep bucko, hope your early job goes well in the morning!!

[Omegaraptor]

Portland managed 0.19" of precipitation total. It's actually partly cloudy now.

 

Really satisfied with today's downpour.

[Phil]

It's on you, get some sleep bucko, hope your early job goes well in the morning!!

Thanks bucko. Good thing I have a functioning back that doesn’t require surgery. Otherwise I’d be in trouble.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like tomorrow afternoon/evening could have some decent convection over the mountains and on the east side.

[GHweatherChris]

Thanks bucko. Good thing I have a functioning back that doesn’t require surgery. Otherwise I’d be in trouble.

I had one of those at your age... just sayin!

[The Swamp]

If this rain train keeps up, my golden brown tan is going to fade.

 

Looks like Saturday might give me a shot a refresher.  Might see the sun that day.

 

Phone App looks miserable though.

[MossMan]

I had an enjoyable evening fire on 7/4/18.

[MossMan]

I had one of those at your age... just sayin!

Yep...I don’t know many people (any really) that have been in the landscaping field for any lengthy duration of time that do not have major back issues now...It will catch up to Phil like it does everyone else, myself included.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.59" of rain the past two days. More than we had all of last May, which was one of the driest May's on record. Was finally able to light the burn pile this evening. 

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Back in the day people would get put on mod preview now and then. It was a process which seemed to work.

[ShawniganLake]

Satellite rainfall estimates from May 2018 across BC, juxtaposed on the model precipitation forecasts, suggest that is physically impossible.

Just like forest fires raging under snowpack all winter is physically impossible. Even in BC.

I’m all for it.

But think about this. You’re arguing (correctly) that 2+2=4 while you have five other people arguing (incorrectly) that 2+2=5, and tag-teaming you with insults and revisionist history. What would you do?

Sure, I jabbed the guy yesterday, because we had this debate a month ago and he brought it up again, with obvious intent to goad a reply from me.

Seems like you brought it up yesterday. Not me. But anyway

[Phil]

Seems like you brought it up yesterday. Not me. But anyway

Could be a resolution issue since you were talking about a localized shower or squall or whatever.

[TT-SEA]

Another beautiful morning... and did not get any rain at all last night.  

 

Appears that the big event for the week will be starting soon and initially aided by daytime heating.   It should continue through most of the night as well.   The 00Z ECMWF showed everything winding down for the central sound by 5 a.m. tomorrow with an active c-zone stretching from SW to NE up through Snohomish and Skagit Counties.

[ShawniganLake]

Could be a resolution issue since you were talking about a localized shower or squall or whatever.

No. The fire debate. “Raging under the snowpack”, you said above. I did not bring it up.

[ShawniganLake]

Another beautiful morning... and did not get any rain at all last night.

 

Appears that the big event for the week will be starting soon and initially aided by daytime heating. It should continue through most of the night as well. The 00Z ECMWF showed everything winding down for the central sound by 5 a.m. tomorrow with an active c-zone stretching from SW to NE up through Snohomish and Skagit Counties.

What did the euro look like up here. GFS and NAM this morning look almost completely dry

[TT-SEA]

What did the euro look like up here. GFS and NAM this morning look almost completely dry

 

Yeah... so was ECMWF for your area.   This is 11 a.m. today through 11 a.m. tomorrow.

 

Although it looks like quite an event for almost all of eastern WA.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

52 here with some fog this morning. Probably got 0.05” of rain yesterday.The rain the last couple days hasn't been enough to put a dent in the deficit so far here obviously but hopefully soon!

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws Seattle still mentions the possibility of instability in the cascades and the far south portion of W.WA possibly but even that looks minor at best for today with the cloud cover.

[Front Ranger]

Another beautiful morning... and did not get any rain at all last night.

 

Appears that the big event for the week will be starting soon and initially aided by daytime heating. It should continue through most of the night as well. The 00Z ECMWF showed everything winding down for the central sound by 5 a.m. tomorrow with an active c-zone stretching from SW to NE up through Snohomish and Skagit Counties.

Today was supposed to be a mostly dry day with lots of sun for most the area, per Tim of two or three days ago.

[TT-SEA]

Today was supposed to be a mostly dry day with lots of sun for most the area, per Tim of two or three days ago.

 

Per the ECMWF. Don't be a jerk. The timing has moved up a little bit.

 

Its beautiful out there now.

 

 

And the faster timing means that most of tomorrow will be dry for the Seattle area. Earlier runs had the rain going strong until around noon.

[TacomaWaWx]

Per the ECMWF. Don't be a jerk. The timing has moved up a little bit.

 

Its beautiful out there now.

 

 

And the faster timing means that most of tomorrow will be dry for the Seattle area. Earlier runs had the rain going strong until around noon.

either way there’s going to be some good times to go out and enjoy the weather in between fronts over the next week.

[TT-SEA]

either way there’s going to be some good times to go out and enjoy the weather in between fronts over the next week.

 

 

Definitely.

[Front Ranger]

Per the ECMWF. Don't be a jerk. The timing has moved up a little bit.

 

Its beautiful out there now.

 

 

And the faster timing means that most of tomorrow will be dry for the Seattle area. Earlier runs had the rain going strong until around noon.

Not being a jerk...just pointing out the fallability of the Euro, even at short range.

[TT-SEA]

Not being a jerk...just pointing out the fallability of the Euro, even at short range.

 

 

Just timing.  And even a slight shift in timing can make a big difference during the afternoon hours in terms of high temps.

[TT-SEA]

Big changes on the GFS for the middle of next week...

 

00Z run

 

 

 

12Z run