April 2023 Observations and Disussion

[CentralNebWeather]

48 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

My County and specifically my town is now in the D4 Exceptional drought category. Haven't been in this territory since 2012; the only thing is this drought is far worse. We have been working on this thing for over a year. We are in dire need of rain and it's no where in site. Gonna go down with one of the driest April in history.......

It is a very bad situation going into another growing season.  This is now 2 years in a row.  Maybe a little rain tonight, but then the forecast is for more wind and red flag conditions.  We have to hope that the coming El Nino will help us out, but it is going to take time to get rid of this drought.

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

We are on the "Century Mark" watch...Sunday is the day the valley looks to officially hit the 100F mark.  Welcome to a Summer forecast for the valley...

 

The same can't be said for those back home around the GL's this weekend into the opening days of MAY.  What a depressing pattern...yuck!  

@Andie Did you get any hail?  Looked like the line of storms may have just missed you the SW...

 

I was Very Lucky. .  
It formed near me but slid east and hammered those poor people.  Cattle and horses panicked, and anything exposed was battered.  
 

It’s  currently  59* and Humidity is 58% !    Heavy Overcast and zero wind.
Reminds me of weather about a month earlier.  Very odd Spring.  C’mon GOM!! Wake up.  
I’m wondering if this will be a unique Summer?

Edit:   Video of Hail and Cow not so happy. 
https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/massive-hail-storm-hits-cow-and-pool-dublin-texas

[Black Hole]

1.5-3" of rain fell across Tulsa the last 3 days. There were a few isolated storms, but pretty tame for this time of year with a winter-like feel out there.

 

Looks like another storm tomorrow afternoon into Saturday that could bring another decent soaking. It's nice to see after almost a month of dry weather. No sign of meaningful severe weather here anytime soon. 

[Stormy]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

We are on the "Century Mark" watch...Sunday is the day the valley looks to officially hit the 100F mark.  Welcome to a Summer forecast for the valley...

 

The same can't be said for those back home around the GL's this weekend into the opening days of MAY.  What a depressing pattern...yuck!  

@Andie Did you get any hail?  Looked like the line of storms may have just missed you the SW...

 

It's pretty nice in my part of the Midwest though. Lots of sunshine with chilly nights. Shirtsleeve wx currently @ 68⁰. Lovely outside!

[Tom]

52 minutes ago, Sparky said:

It's pretty nice in my part of the Midwest though. Lots of sunshine with chilly nights. Shirtsleeve wx currently @ 68⁰. Lovely outside!

That's about what I would expect to see in late April, still cool enough for a hoodie in the morning and evening, maybe a fire at night?  As long as the sun is out and not cloudy/gloomy every day I'm ok with it.

[CentralNebWeather]

What in the world is this liquid falling from the sky?  I’ll have to investigate. 

 

 

[Andie]

Round 2 of severe weather tomorrow. Should hit between mid afternoon and mid evening.  
High of 80*.  That will really energize these storms.   

Honey!!! Bring in the cow for Pete’s sake !!!

[Stormy]

15 hours ago, Sparky said:

It's pretty nice in my part of the Midwest though. Lots of sunshine with chilly nights. Shirtsleeve wx currently @ 68⁰. Lovely outside!

It's sunny about every day here.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very nice late April day with the official H/L of 64/29 there was no rain/snow. The overnight low here in MBY was 41 and at the current time it is 45 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 63/42 The record high of 83 was set in 1901 and the record low of 24 was set in 1945. Snow fall is becoming rare now and the record amount of 0.9” fell in 1961. The record rain fall of 1.45” fell in 2020. Last year was cold at the end of April with the H/L of 54/28.

We just can not get rid of the mention of snow as there is a chance of snow late Sunday into Monday. Remember Monday is the start of May. Temperatures could be as much as -20 below average on Monday and Tuesday for a very cold start to May. And the expected big warm up could bring temperatures up to average.

[CentralNebWeather]

Ended up with a whopping 0.20" last night.  I guess it was something, but again was less than forecasted.  Ag. Weather forecaster Eric Snodgrass is pointing out that about a week from now the pattern may flip to a much warmer and stormier pattern, that might start bringing more moisture back to the Central Plains.  Always have to have hope.

[Andie]

Severe weather warnings after 3pm.  Virtually the same track as a day ago.  
 
Large hail/damaging winds.  Let’s hope it strikes east like it did before.  

 

[chescowxman]

It looks like a pretty wet weekend is on the way for the area. Rain should spread from southwest to northeast across the county this morning and continue pretty heavy into tomorrow morning. It looks like over an inch of rain is likely for much of the county with this 1st round of rain (see below). A 2nd round of rain looks to move in by Sunday morning with a chance of another 1" plus of rain. All of this represents some much needed rain for the local farmers and all of our lawns! Temperatures will continue to run well below normal through at least the next week as we roll into the first week of May.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Ended up with a whopping 0.20" last night.  I guess it was something, but again was less than forecasted.  Ag. Weather forecaster Eric Snodgrass is pointing out about a week for the pattern to flip to a much warmer and stormier pattern, that might start bringing more moisture back to the Central Plains.  Always have to have hope.

He's got it dialed in as it mirrors what I'm thinking as well...as you very well know, summer rain patterns are hit or miss, but the pattern turns. very active as troughs exit the Rockies and develop in the Plains once we flip into May.  That pesky troughy pattern over the GL's will pay dividends for your region.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

He's got it dialed in as it mirrors what I'm thinking as well...as you very well know, summer rain patterns are hit or miss, but the pattern turns. very active as troughs exit the Rockies and develop in the Plains once we flip into May.  That pesky troughy pattern over the GL's will pay dividends for your region.

You are correct, we get our best moisture and storms in the late spring and summer as complexes roll off of the high plains of Wyoming and Colorado and march east.  If a low level jet is in place, we can get a lot of rainfall.  

[Tom]

This morning I spent some time reviewing the LRC and studying my notes from way back in OCT when it all began to develop.  The pattern we are experience right now is vividly expressed in my notes from Jan 19th-21st...this is what I wrote:

1/19 - 1/23: On the 19th, a trough tracks into PAC NW and dives south through UT into the 4 corners region on the 20th.  4-15” of SN in AZ/NM/CO, 3-7” Flagstaff, 4-11”.  On the 21st, SLP forms near the TX PanHandle and tracks thru OK, 2nd SLP forms near LA/Gulf Coast and takes over late on 21st into the 22nd that tracks up the EC.  WSW’s issued over CO/KS as a band of Heavy Snow falls over CO into W/C KS 4-11”.  Comma Head tracks over CO/KS, weakens into the 22nd but produces a wave of -SN in KC/N MO/IL/IN/S MI/OH that lays down  3-7” KS/N MO, 1-4” SE IA/N IL/S MI.  On the 22nd, ORD: Reports 1.5” of SN.  On the 23rd, EC SLP wraps up and produces a swath of OH/PA/NY/ME. 3-6” OH, 1-4” PA, 4-17” NY/VT/NH/MA/ME.  ORD: Reports Trace of Snow.

 

 This is the forecast for tomorrow...there is that GOM SLP that my notes suggest!  Incredible...

 

Farther examination in the days prior, we had a powerful storm that tracked into the TX Panhandle and produced a Trowal like feature on radar.  Back on Jan 18th/19th, a Major Winter Storm developed and hit TX/OK just like this one did...pretty freakin' cool!

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=15&year=2023&month=4&day=26&hour=5&minute=30

On a side note, I'm using the LRC and some pattern recognition techniques today to predict when the 1st 110F day of the year happens at Sky Harbor.  Here's a clue...when our Nation celebrates our Freedom that our Congress initially declared, but not signed!

[Madtown]

What the hell is that blue stuff on the map up here!?!?!

[CentralNebWeather]

You would think this might be the last frost advisory for the year.  Been a very cold and dry April.  Currently 45 degrees with north winds gusting over 35 MPH creating a wind chill in the low 30's with a heavy cloud cover as of 10:15 AM.

 

[Madtown]

Is this crap real? Haven't paid attention that close. What the 

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Is this crap real? Haven't paid attention that close. What the 

Pretty insane to see Lake Enhanced/Effect snowfall this late in April!

[Andie]

Currently some  very ugly action Near Waco.  Baseball (or a bit larger) hail.  
Only other action a this hour is in the Panhandle. 71* in DFW. 
 

 

3:20. Tornado on the ground near Ft Hood.  Developed fast. 
Moving toward Temple/Belton.  That’s one big black cloud. 
4:15 The cold air is moving faster than the warm right over me and the intensity is dropping here while Dallas got a storm with hail. So interesting to watch the atmosphere change in front of your eyes intensifying between Dallas and Ft Worth.  
I dodged the hail bullet. Whew!

Hill Country caught it this time.  
High of 80 today. Low 50. 
Tomorrow’s High 68.  Low of 50  This isn’t normal.  No way.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/42 there was a trace of rain fall and just 1% of possible sunshine. So far the overnight low here in MBY has been 51. For today the average H/L is now up to 64/43 the record high of 90 was set in 1899 and the record low of 28 was set in 1977, 1979 and in 2012 of course that low in 2012 was after the record warmth in that March and there was a lot of crop damage. The record snow fall of 2.2” fell in 1909 there has been just one other time when there was a trace of snow fall on this date and that was a trace that was reported in 2019. Last year the high low was 62/42.

[Madtown]

06z gfs....ah ok

[chescowxman]

We picked up another 0.16" of rain overnight bringing the 2 day total to 1.35" of rain. Since Wednesday we have recorded 2.02" of much needed rain. Today will be cloudy but dry. The next round of rain moves in late morning on Sunday and should last into early Monday morning. We could see another 1.25" to 2.00" of rain with this one and increasing winds again.

Some shower chances for most days this week with the exception of Thursday which looks mostly sunny. Below normal temps look to continue all week.

Records for today: High 88 (1974) / Low 28 (1922) / Rain 1.08" (1902)

[Andie]

I thought I’d post sea surface data in the GOM as it contributes so to the general trend toward summer and storms.  

The lows are still very chilly. 
Corpus is just chilly.  
April average water temperature in Corpus Christi is 72.7°F, the minimum temperature is 66.6°F, and the maximum is 79°F.

With a current average in the 60’s that has to be affecting things.  

[Madtown]

12z's

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm probably running 3/1 colder than avg vs warmer than average days for April. 

As Tom was writing about our pattern going forward, I agree with him on most stuff to come. I don't foresee having much extreme heat east of AZ or the Rockies this year with exception to hard drought areas. Going to be a short summer if the ridges connect in later months. 

Another thing, its odd to see these patterns in peak solar, which will be bombarding our atmosphere pretty heavily from now to end of 2024 if the new predictions are right.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a mild day until the rain moved in. The official H/L was 64/40 there was .014” of rain and 37% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both at GRR and in MBY was 40. For today the Average H/L is 64/43 the record high of 87 was set in 1894 and 1942 the record low of 26 was set in 1971 and 2008. The record snow fall of 3.6” fell in 1963.

The forecasted high of 41 for Grand Rapids would be the 2^nd coldest maximum for any May 1^st  and the forecasted high of 44 on Tuesday would be the 4^th coldest maximum for any May 2^nd There is also snow in the forecast and on both days since 1893 it snow has only been reported 4 years. So a very cold start to May. By next weekend temperatures look to warm up to near average. On Saturday the average H/L is 66.3/45.1

[Tom]

The beat goes on for those up in the Northwoods...Bayfield, WI also reeling in a record snow season and with more snow in the forecast, this season will be one for the Ages!

 

 

 

[Tom]

PHX is on record watch today as we top the century mark for the 1st time this season.  The record for the day is 102F.  We hit a high of 99F and I felt every bit of it at the pool yesterday!  Most of the snow birds have left and its kinda nice to have more space at the pool.  Boy, you can't ask for a better wx pattern out here as we head back BN temp wise and head back into the 80's when low 90's are normal now.  Pretty D**n good!

[Madtown]

well here is night 1

[chescowxman]

More heavy rain and even some thunderstorms later. We have already picked up another 0.48" this morning bringing our last 5 day rain total to 2.52". Up to another 1" to 2" could fall across some areas by late tonight especially if any thunderstorms do develop.

Records for today: High 90 (1942) / Low 26 (1978) / Rain 5.77" (2014)

[Iceresistance]

NAO is taking a nosedive

[Clinton]

Glad to see April come to an end, it's been dry, cool, and windy.  Drought conditions have crept back in but I agree with Tom this should get wiped out as the stormy part of the pattern should return around May 10th.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Very windy day here today. My sister-in-law just moved over here from the PNW yesterday and has gotten quite a taste of the fabled Plains Wind already. She's made a couple comments like "I heard it was windy here but yeesh." We've tried to tell her that even for our very windy prone spot here, today was unusually strong. Looks like a spot on I90 in SW MN hit 60 mph.

 

[Tom]

At 3:39pm local time, Sky Harbor tied a record temp of 102F!  Now that the 1st 100F is checked off the list, the next milestone is when does the valley officially hit 110F???  IMO, the pattern turns more more favorable at the end of JUNE into the 4th of July holiday weekend.

[CentralNebWeather]

What a horrendous month for rainfall. I got 0.17”. Going to take quite a pattern flip and time to put a dent in this lengthy drought. 

 

[Clinton]

April statistics for KC.  Very surprised to see temps finish above normal for the month.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Here is the April 2023 Climate Rundown: The avg temp was 55.5 which was 0.9 degrees above normal and was 64th warmest on the 135-year record. The total precip for the month was 2.77" which was 1.28" below normal and 57th driest. No snow fell...50 of the 135 April's had no snow