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April 2023 Observations and Disussion


Tom

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🥶. Yikes!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Definitely some chilly nights all around right now. 

Glad to see great moisture over N. Central TX over the next 60 plus hours. This is how droughts start to break down. 

With more coming next week, a very good end to April 2023.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Bismark finally had a above avg day on April 10th. 49 days in a row of below normal temps. (Never seen that before in the Upper Midwest.)
The also were above avg on the 11th - 12th and 18th and 19th.
And now back into the freezer.
5 days above avg in the last 62 days. Unreal.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Bismark finally had a above avg day on April 10th. 49 days in a row of below normal temps. (Never seen that before in the Upper Midwest.)
The also were above avg on the 11th - 12th and 18th and 19th.
And now back into the freezer.
5 days above avg in the last 62 days. Unreal.

Looking like we're headed for a year without a summer for some places in the central CONUS.

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On our way to a chilly 47* low tonight. 
Rain in the forecast the next 24 hrs. I hope it pours!  
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Looking like we're headed for a year without a summer for some places in the central CONUS.

Could that keep Tx/Ok cooler this summer?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We dodged another bullet overnight as clouds prevented it from getting really cold. 😀 It only dropped to 34⁰. Yesterday morning it went to 31⁰ which probably wasn't cold enough to damage fruit trees etc. We have one more cold night coming, and it could be the coldest with clear skies likely. People with orchards aren't resting easy these days. Many apple trees haven't bloomed yet so that helps, but still could freeze if cold enough. 

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On 4/20/2023 at 6:29 PM, AquariusRadar said:

Now why would Kansas, northern Oklahoma, some of Nebraska, and Texas remain in drought when the western slope of the Rockies is normal with good snowpack and the inter-mountain west/Sierras have plenty of snowpack? Considering the numerous winter atmospheric rivers driving straight out of the west-Do the Rockies create a  rain shadow? Or is it -IMHO- the weather modification efforts in the Colorado river basin. Is there some other accepted explanation?

Yes the Rockies definitely squeeze out the moisture from systems moving across them. Low pressure systems usually redevelop or restrengthen just east of the Rockies in the plains somewhere, and it depends on how soon Gulf moisture can get wrapped in or catch up with lows in how much rain will fall, and there are other things in play as well. This year it's seems storms are a little slow in developing or we're in the dry slot region at times even this far east. Most of the moisture east of the Rockies comes from the Gulf, especially in the warm season. You probably knew most of this, but you asked. 

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I work for the Whitecaps a minor league baseball team here in Grand Rapids. After the game yesterday there was a snow/ice pellet/rain shower.  It was very cold during the game and a lot of customers were wondering when it was going to warm up. I told them summer was last week.

As has been the case several times in the last year the high yesterday of 51 was recorded just after midnight. During the daylight temperatures were in the mid to low 40’s with wind chills in the 30’s The official low was 35. There was 0.04” of precipitation and a trace of snow fall. And just 2% of sunshine.

The overnight low for today so far is 34. The average H/L for today is 61/40 the record high is 84 set in 1915 and 1925 the record low of 20 was set in 1986. The record snow fall of 0.7” fell in 2005. Last year it was a very warm 82/46.

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

We dodged another bullet overnight as clouds prevented it from getting really cold. 😀 It only dropped to 34⁰. Yesterday morning it went to 31⁰ which probably wasn't cold enough to damage fruit trees etc. We have one more cold night coming, and it could be the coldest with clear skies likely. People with orchards aren't resting easy these days. Many apple trees haven't bloomed yet so that helps, but still could freeze if cold enough. 

After I posted this the temperature fell to 32⁰. 

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47 and rain at noon in DFW.  
The chill is reaching pretty far south.  
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The house was cold this morning.  
Odd spring.  Wonder what summer will bring? 
We do need this rain. Nothing significant but I’ll take it. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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KC and St. Joe Missouri broke some long standing records this morning.

If you thought it was a tad chilly this morning...you would be right! Both Kansas City & St. Joseph broke low temperature records today.
St. Joseph..........23°
(Previous Record: 30° set in 1956)
Kansas City..........31°
(Previous Record: 32° set in 1893)
Brrrrrr!
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19 hours ago, Andie said:

Could that keep Tx/Ok cooler this summer?

I think so. I really think as things go along, its going to be hard to stay above avg in temps. 

Most of what I have observed and think in the runout through mid-summer puts troughs in the heartland and SE with gulf "homebrew" storms trailing or at the base of  troughs. 

We saw a flash of that with the tropical wave Florida is recovering from. 

With ENSO development, I'm expecting a good ridge anchored off California as things go. That may cause interference early with tropical Pacific moisture flowing across the SW, but it will be a win later. 

My thoughts going forward are to the cold. The number of records being chipped at and the increased severe weather activity in AR plus rainfall to Texas is a HUGE marker for cold winning for awhile.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

KC and St. Joe Missouri broke some long standing records this morning.

If you thought it was a tad chilly this morning...you would be right! Both Kansas City & St. Joseph broke low temperature records today.
St. Joseph..........23°
(Previous Record: 30° set in 1956)
Kansas City..........31°
(Previous Record: 32° set in 1893)
Brrrrrr!

Probably  kiss any fruit trees goodbye  for this yr?  30F here this am. I know farmers planted corn 14 days ago when we were in mid 80s several  days. Such a tough area to grow things. 

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So hard to break a drought. Bad news rolls on. 


NWS Hastings disco:  

Precip-wise: unfortunately the same "drying trend" has continued regarding what once looked like a promising chance of widespread soaking rain across much of our CWA Mon-Wed. It now appears that most of our CWA will struggle to see even 0.10", and even our far south-southwest (most favored to see rain) is now projected to average less than 0.25"

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We had a high of 55 today, expecting a low of 48.   
We may have a comparably mild summer. We won’t complain, especially if it comes with some rain.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was yet another very cold late April day. The official H/L was 46/34. That 46 was the 8th coldest maximum for any April 23. There was a trace of snow fall and 17% of possible sunshine. The clouds kept the overnight low here a little warmer and the ow was just 37. That is also the current temperature. For today the average H/L is now up to 62/41. The record high of 86 was set in 1915 and the record low of 25 was set in 2015 the record snow fall for today is 2.4” in 1980. The record rain fall of 1.46” fell in 1957. Last year it was a very pleasant 74/56 with 0.34” of rain fall. The next 7 days continue to look very cool for late April there are several chances of frost and freezing temperatures at night and daytime highs will also be very cool for the most part. There is even a chance of snow more snow early in the week. Remember we are now almost in May.

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47 this morning and on our way to 65.  
Still very cool for us post equinox, usually the mark for our turn to warmer temps.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It looks like we see below normal temperatures to over the next week to finish out the month of April. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 60's. There could be some patchy frost across lower spots in the county over the next 2 nights. There is a slight chance of showers on Wed night...but a dry work week before rain chances increase for next weekend.
Records for today: High 90 (1960) / Low 26 (1931) / Rain 2.40" (1968)
image.png.8a400678471f1f992a8d891ba51deb1e.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Happy Monday!  It's been very nice out here in the desert SW as we have been sitting just enough south of the jet stream while storms track just to our north skirting the northern part of the state.  It gets windy, but as long as the sun is out, I'm pleased!  I don't mind not seeing moisture as we have had a lot of it these past couple months.  The vegetation is blooming, cactus's are all blossoming gorgeous colors from their flowers, all sorts of desert bushes are showing their colors.  The only caveat, allergies are really bad for those who suffer from them.  Thankfully, I do not have that issue.

On a side note, I just read that ORD picked up 0.1" of snow on Saturday (20.2" season total) and it was a chilly and dreary weekend.  In fact, Sun had a high of only 42F which is about 20F below normal.  That's gotta feel cold after a string of 80's the previous week.

1.webp

 

 

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PHX is poised to be centered underneath a stout West Coast Ridge this coming weekend while you guys in the MW/GL's get to experience...wait, more snow???  Our 1st real shot at reaching 100F this year.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_24.png

 

 

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20 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Probably  kiss any fruit trees goodbye  for this yr?  30F here this am. I know farmers planted corn 14 days ago when we were in mid 80s several  days. Such a tough area to grow things. 

It was down to 28⁰ here this morning. Didn't see any damages other then some things hanging their heads a bit and those should soon perk up again. Fruit trees appeared ok. One year I saw it in the upper teens or low 20⁰s and blooming trees were mostly okay, which was astounding! I still haven't figured out that one. It could've been something to do with humidity or wind, but think if there are several days of chilly temp's before a freeze, vegetation can maybe somewhat acclimate or prepare for it? I've found that 26⁰ to 28⁰ is about the limit around here. 

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I was just outside just in time to see a quick snow shower roll thru. The sun was out earlier but it has now became cloudy with a current temperature of 43. Not sure if this snow was reported at GRR or not but if so there has only been 12 years with snow reported on this date going back to 1893. 

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