Jump to content

April 2023 Observations and Disussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This weekend is looking more interesting.  Models are trending slower and stronger.  We can certainly use the precip.  We've had an active pattern over the last six weeks, but only 1.77" of precip has fallen.

image.thumb.png.722fddd731d7ee7a110dfbce0bf53033.png

LOL

image.thumb.png.d69c70264d0b5903c9b7255f024f43dc.png

Yes I noticed models were trending wetter which I'm very happy to see! It's actually kind of dry and we need a good rain! Hoping for some decent storms Saturday evening if the front doesn't slow down to much.

And next week's system looks decent as well.

I love spring when everything starts growing again. I wouldn't want to miss it since it's my favorite season! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

New record highs were set yesterday at Lansing with 83. And 77 at Muskegon. At Grand Rapids the record was tied with 80. The official overnight lows were also in the top 3 and all locations. Records could also be set once again today as the forecast is for highs in the low 80’s the records for today are 80 at Grand Rapids, 83 at Lansing, 76 at Muskegon. Holland looks to be safe with their record high of 85 reported in 1941.

The record high was tied at Grand Rapids yesterday with the official H/L of 80/56. There was 99% of possible sunshine. The overnight low so far this morning is a little cooler than in the past couple of days and now set at 44 here in MBT with a dew point of 37. As has been the case it is warmer at GRR with a current reading of 49. For today the record high of 80 was set in 1974 and again in 2006 The record low of 21 was set in 1943 and 1953.

Today has been a rather snowy day in the last 10 years with the record snow fall amount of 4” falling in 2019 there was also 1.4” in 2014 and 1” in 2020.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday was our warmest day since the 84.3 degree reading back on September 4th. We should be a couple degrees cooler today with clouds increasing later. Some showers toward morning tomorrow ending by late Saturday night. Some spots could see 0.25" to 0.50" of much needed rain for the county farmers and green thumbs!
Records for today: High 88 (1941) / Low 22 (1940) / Rain 2.28" (1970) / Snow 2.5" (1923)
image.png.839601325ee79fa9d22bc3c8c86caff8.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ORD set a new record high of 83F yesterday and heading back into the low 80's today and tomorrow, however, the "Taste of Summer" will come to a cruel end this weekend and snow flakes will be flying.  Looking farther, the models have a cruel joke for parts of the Sub as we approach the Spring Equinox.  

0z EPS...nature always seems to find a way to block up the atmosphere when the Jet slows down in the Spring months.  Doesn't it seem like that has been the way things go in recent years?  

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

Mid-April SNOW?  

image.png

 

Spring Equinox Big Dog for the Upper MW???  Maybe.  If the powerful trough exits the N Rockies and slows down, cuts NW and taps into the cold air this one could be a phenomenal late April storm.  Got my eyes on this one.

 

image.png

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like El Niño watch is on.  
Conditions are setting up for a return after a long La Niña period.  

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/april-2023-enso-update-el-niño-watch 

202BD38E-EABA-4909-98DE-78BB1939FC70.png

  • Like 4

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I noticed that our local channel 6 weather team over in Philadelphia has been posting how since 1970 springs are getting warmer....as is always the case they only seem to look at since 1970. Why is that a problem? A quick look (see below) at the 3 major NWS COOP sites here in Chester County PA show that by starting the analysis in 1970 the data is clearly skewed because overall the 1960's was the decade with the coolest readings. The warmest springs here in Chester County averaged over the 3 long term sites actually occurred back in the 1940's. Only focusing on 50 years does not prove a trend.

image.thumb.png.3d69166dc1b7545c5e4e413ddd362b8c.png

  • Like 1

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Seems the watch is on, Hoosier. They’re only at a 62% chance. (Interesting choice of percentages).   Perhaps as summer rolls along the prognosticators will feel more confident.  Something to watch over a dull Texas summer   

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Many record high temperatures. Record highs were set yesterday all across southern Lower Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 83/48 there was 97% of possible sunshine. That 83 is a new record for the day. Other records set 85 at Lansing, 82 at Muskegon, No record but it was also 82 at Holland the record there is 85 set in 1941. Other records across Michigan. 82 Detroit and Flint, 83 Saginaw, 82 Houghton Lake, 86 Traverse City and in the UP 78 at Ironwood.

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models are trending north and east with the heavier precip from this system as it really wraps up once it gets to Wisconsin.  Most models had been showing 1-3" of precip across my area.  Some are down to less than a half inch.

The long-range pattern could be pretty dreadful.  The latest Euro blocks it up and keeps the area in the 40s and 50s through ten days, with multiple hard freezes possible.  Yuck!  All my plants will have to come back inside and budding shrubs will have to be covered.

  • Sick 2
  • Facepalm 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Many record high temperatures. Record highs were set yesterday all across southern Lower Michigan. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 83/48 there was 97% of possible sunshine. That 83 is a new record for the day. Other records set 85 at Lansing, 82 at Muskegon, No record but it was also 82 at Holland the record there is 85 set in 1941. Other records across Michigan. 82 Detroit and Flint, 83 Saginaw, 82 Houghton Lake, 86 Traverse City and in the UP 78 at Ironwood.

The entire East Coast also baked in the early summer heat...NYC hit 91F!

 

http://coolwx.com/record/movies/usa.movieday.gif

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z Euro....Back to Winter in the Upper MW!  As we approach the Spring Equinox, a bonafide high-lat blocking pattern evolves coupled with a slow-moving system that slides east off the Rockies into the Upper MW/MW region.  Plenty of cold air to tap and plenty of moisture will be available for the ag belt.  Just not the kinda moisture those up north would like to see!  

System #1...

Euro...

1.png

0z GFS..

 

2.png

Total snow from both storms...

3.png

 

 

  • Shivering 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Assuming we don't fall below 61.7 by midnight we recorded another record daily high min temp this AM. Old record was 59 from 2002. A tough forecast for today regarding the chances for some much needed rain. Some spots could see over an inch of rain while others get less than 0.10". Hoping your backyard sees some rain! Looks to continue mild before a cool down early this week then a warming trend mid-week before we start a stretch of predominantly below normal temperatures to close out the month of April.
Records for today: High 86 (1967) / Low 24 (1981) / Rain 1.71" (1925)
image.png.f92dea30f9260cbabd756b958be8c76a.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Two days after hitting 89 we now have moderate wet snow falling with a temp of 36. Pretty crazy.

You had snow covered ground not too long ago! Temperature extremes are higher in the plains! It never got above 82° here so far. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are trending north and east with the heavier precip from this system as it really wraps up once it gets to Wisconsin.  Most models had been showing 1-3" of precip across my area.  Some are down to less than a half inch.

The long-range pattern could be pretty dreadful.  The latest Euro blocks it up and keeps the area in the 40s and 50s through ten days, with multiple hard freezes possible.  Yuck!  All my plants will have to come back inside and budding shrubs will have to be covered.

Rainfall still could be decent and next week's system looks great as of now. Yeah the cold is going to suck. So long as it doesn't get colder than 30⁰ or so it should be okay here, but I planted some early hardier (except for beans) garden things a few days ago,so hopefully it doesn't last to long! 

I started a lot of plant cuttings indoors this year so I'm glad I held off on planting any of those outside. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Quite the rotating, tornado warned, hail producing supercell headed for St Louis area looks like! I saw on Twitter were they had 3" diameter hail somewhere in Missouri probably from that same storm! 

Yes and I’m here in downtown STL.  Went to the cards game this afternoon with the family and watching it roll in.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of got screwed here this evening rainfall wise. A heavy storm with occasional c/g lightning dropped probably nearly 1" of rain just east of here. Got a respectable quarter inch so far even here in the dryer hole, with rain continuing for now. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/14/2023 at 5:01 PM, Hoosier said:

I think 1976-77 was the only time there was a Nino after a 3rd year Nina.  

So are you thinking Neutral?  
 

E0C110C0-BB9D-4655-B263-EFC2EF97AE28.gif

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were more record highs yesterday. While the H/L at Grand Rapids of 81/59 was not a record it was the 3rd warmest high and the 4 warmest low for the date. Lansing tied both the record high 84 and the record warmest low 62. And a new record high of 81 was set at Muskegon.

For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 58/38 the record high of 86 was set in 2002 and the record low of 21 was set in 1904. There was a big April snowstorm on this date in 1961 when 11.8” fell. Last year it was cold on this date with a H/L of  39/30 and there was a trace of snow fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some folks in southern Chester County picked up close to an inch of rain with last evening's storms. Unfortunately most of the county received much less than that...here in East Nantmeal we received only 0.03". There is another chance of some showers or thunderstorms overnight tonight but unfortunately dry begets dry it would seem for most!
Back to near normal temps tomorrow and then well below normal highs on Tuesday with temp struggling to reach the mid-50's. Warmer again by weeks end.
Records for today: High 90 (1896)/ Low 20 (1926) / Rain 2.42" (1929) and Snow 2.0" from 2007.
image.png.937716d5424c84184ca64fe0d8f1732a.png
  • Like 1

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I received 0.34" of rain late yesterday and overnight.  We may get a bit of snow this evening, but it won't add up to much.  Precip-wise, this system turned into a big disappointment for my area.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 298

      June 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 3551

      June 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

    3. 7084

      West Coast Sports Talk and Other Banter

    4. 9160

      Polite Politics

×
×
  • Create New...