July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

May the 4th be with you!!!

[Jesse]

May the 4th be with you!!!

[BLI snowman]

There's bgonna be a lot of unhappy campers if there's not at least 2 days of 90+ temps... That's not asking alot.

 

What does this mean for winter!?

[Omegaraptor]

12z GFS definitely looks a little more humid (for us) next week with more moisture and SW flow. Could be a lot of lows in the 60s.

Definitely interesting how warm the lows have been this year (at least since the cold period ended in March). June didn’t go below 50 once at PDX.

 

The only time we really had cold lows was that weird “sunny troughing” pattern in late April.

[Jesse]

Definitely interesting how warm the lows have been this year (at least since the cold period ended in March). June didn’t go below 50 once at PDX.

 

The only time we really had cold lows was that weird “sunny troughing” pattern in late April.

 

PDX is pretty UHI infested these days. I got into the 40s a handful of times in June.

 

But yes, aside from late April there really haven't been many patterns that have inordinately favored much cooler than average lows since mid-March.

[Jesse]

A warm up is back on the ensembles, but it has been delayed by about a week since its last incarnation. Wonder if that will be a theme this summer. I’m sure we will get hot again eventually.

 

Definitely the best GEFS support yet for the second trough and possible rainfall next week.

 

[Deweydog]

Warm ups and cool downs and bears, oh my!

[Jesse]

Warm ups and cool downs and bears, oh my!

And this is why you can never accuse anyone of being more above the fray than you.

[TacomaWaWx]

61 and mostly cloudy with the sun starting to break through. Looks like an excellent 4th coming up. Looks like there’s a wet pattern is coming up. Looks really wet up in Southern BC and western WA and OR look to get some too...if it verifies.

[Farmboy]

What does this mean for winter!?

If hot summers mean cold winters, then cool summers mean....

[TT-SEA]

Sun breaking out here now too.

[Deweydog]

And this is why you can never accuse anyone of being more above the fray than you.

OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Blob burn!!!!

[Jesse]

[Guest CulverJosh]

Happy 4th. Lets not lose any typing fingers tonight.

[Jesse]

If hot summers mean cold winters, then cool summers mean....

 

Cool summers were soul-crushingly frequent back in the late 1940s through 1970s, back when we had some of our best winters in living memory.

[Omegaraptor]

If hot summers mean cold winters, then cool summers mean....

We all know about the summer of 1993 in the PNW, but rainy season that year didn’t start until December, and 93-94 wasn’t exactly a great winter for snow, at least at PDX. December and January were mostly blowtorches.

 

But then again 92-93 was a very good winter for most of the PNW.

[Jesse]

We all know about the summer of 1993 in the PNW, but rainy season that year didn’t start until December, and 93-94 wasn’t exactly a great winter for snow, at least at PDX. December and January were mostly blowtorches.

 

But then again 92-93 was a very good winter for most of the PNW.

 

A completely random one year sample size. Intriguing!

[Omegaraptor]

1998 was a fairly warm summer. 98-99 was the best mountain snow year on record.

 

1999 was a cool summer. 99-00 was a mediocre winter.

 

2000 was a cool summer. 00-01 was an awful winter.

 

I can dig up loads of examples, but I think I’ve made my point.

[Deweydog]

Flatiron is gonna blow a Mexican gasket.

[Jesse]

1998 was a fairly warm summer. 98-99 was the best mountain snow year on record.

 

1999 was a cool summer. 99-00 was a mediocre winter.

 

2000 was a cool summer. 00-01 was an awful winter.

 

I can dig up loads of examples, but I think I’ve made my point.

There have been many hot summers recently like 2014 and 2015 that have been followed by awful winters, and cooler summers like 2008 and 2010 that have been followed by great ones. See I can cherry pick recent years to find results that support my claim too.

 

Generally speaking, though, back in our region’s last era of great winters cool summers were the norm. Check out summer 1948, 1949, 1955, 1956, 1964 or 1968. Would probably make you cry.

[Jesse]

Pretty amazing how the 4CH is held at bay the entirety of the 12Z Euro. Gotta wonder how long that can hold, really not a look I'm used to seeing on the models in recent summers.

[Omegaraptor]

There have been many hot summers recently like 2014 and 2015 that have been followed by awful winters, and cooler summers like 2008 and 2010 that have been followed by great ones. See I can cherry pick recent years to find results that support my claim too.

 

Generally speaking, though, back in our region’s last era of great winters there were some pretty cool summers. Check out summer 1949, 1955, 1964 or 1968. Would probably make you cry.

 

As I've said before, I'm not afraid of a cool summer. There's a 2011 for every 2015, a 1983 for every 1985, and that's how you get an average. 

 

Persistent ridging is bad and persistent troughing is also bad. Persistent ridging causes drought and wildfires, and persistent troughing... ask a farmer in the Midwest. Widespread crop failures this year because of flooding.

[Jesse]

As I've said before, I'm not afraid of a cool summer. There's a 2011 for every 2015, a 1983 for every 1985, and that's how you get an average.

 

Persistent ridging is bad and persistent troughing is also bad. Persistent ridging causes drought and wildfires, and persistent troughing... ask a farmer in the Midwest. Widespread crop failures this year because of flooding.

This is kind of veering off topic. We were discussing summer/winter correlations.

[Phil]

1998 was a fairly warm summer. 98-99 was the best mountain snow year on record.

 

1999 was a cool summer. 99-00 was a mediocre winter.

 

2000 was a cool summer. 00-01 was an awful winter.

 

I can dig up loads of examples, but I think I’ve made my point.

Stop cherrypicking.

 

Summer 2008 -> 2008/09 winter

Summer 2010 -> 2010/11 winter

Summer 2011 -> 2011/12 winter.

 

Versus:

 

Summer 2009 -> 2009/10 winter

Summer 2014 -> 2014/15 winter

Summer 2015 -> 2015/16 winter

[Phil]

Pretty amazing how the 4CH is held at bay the entirety of the 12Z Euro. Gotta wonder how long that can hold, really not a look I'm used to seeing on the models in recent summers.

The more retracted EPAC Hadley Cell this year made a weaker 4CH much more likely..also the death of the Baffin Island vortex/+NAO, which seemed impossible after the last several years.

[TacomaWaWx]

65 and mostly sunny as of 1pm. Skies seem a bit hazy this afternoon not completely blue.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.

 

Not by Mark Twain. Not about San Francisco.

[Omegaraptor]

Why do you guys seem to have so much optimism for this winter?

 

You guys seem to be fairly confident that it will be cold and snowy for the PNW. I don’t get it.

[Front Ranger]

Latest Euro has a stronger 4CH past day 6, but is cooler for the PNW.

[Requiem]

Why do you guys seem to have so much optimism for this winter?

 

What else can you have but resigned optimism? There is not evidence this winter will be a bad one. Especially since every one of the past four winters has given us something. It's just depressing having pessimism about next winter when there are no signs whatsoever that it will be a flop.

[Jesse]

Why do you guys seem to have so much optimism for this winter?

 

You guys seem to be fairly confident that it will be cold and snowy for the PNW. I don’t get it.

 

I haven't seen any recent posts making predictions about the upcoming winter.

[Omegaraptor]

What else can you have but resigned optimism? There is not evidence this winter will be a bad one. Especially since every one of the past four winters has given us something. It's just depressing having pessimism about next winter when there are no signs whatsoever that it will be a flop.

 

2018-19 had a crap November-January and then we got missed all February just getting useless dry cold. Garbage precipitation throughout. Very few good things to say about this winter in the western metro area.

 

2017-18 was a bit better for PDX but still had a torching January. Precipitation wasn't exactly great.

 

2016-17 was good, I'll give you that. Unfortunately, winters that good are a very rare miracle.

 

15-16 had that EPIC December, but other than that was mostly warm trash.

 

14-15 is self explanatory.

 

13-14 was the last real Arctic Blast.

 

Two years of drier than normal weather thus far with no sign of it ending. December and January are virtually guaranteed torches nowadays, and February is the only cold month. Not much good skiing before February, either. And of course, whenever interesting weather of any kind is shown on the models, it's always fun to guess whether it'll hit Seattle or Eugene.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Why do you guys seem to have so much optimism for this winter?

 

You guys seem to be fairly confident that it will be cold and snowy for the PNW. I don’t get it.

I don’t think it will be. We are due for a dud.

[Requiem]

2018-19 had a crap November-January and then we got missed all February just getting useless dry cold. Garbage precipitation throughout. Very few good things to say about this winter in the western metro area.

 

2017-18 was a bit better for PDX but still had a torching January. Precipitation wasn't exactly great.

 

2016-17 was good, I'll give you that. Unfortunately, winters that good are a very rare miracle.

 

15-16 had that EPIC December, but other than that was mostly warm trash.

 

14-15 is self explanatory.

 

13-14 was the last real Arctic Blast.

 

Two years of drier than normal weather thus far with no sign of it ending. December and January are virtually guaranteed torches nowadays, and February is the only cold month. Not much good skiing before February, either. And of course, whenever interesting weather of any kind is shown on the models, it's always fun to guess whether it'll hit Seattle or Eugene.

 

We had a very cold Feb/March last year, a great February and a White Christmas the year before, 2016-2017 is self-explanatory, 15-16 gave us an inch or two in January, and I agree about 2014-2015. But it really hasn't been that bad.

[TacomaWaWx]

2018-19 had a crap November-January and then we got missed all February just getting useless dry cold. Garbage precipitation throughout. Very few good things to say about this winter in the western metro area.

 

2017-18 was a bit better for PDX but still had a torching January. Precipitation wasn't exactly great.

 

2016-17 was good, I'll give you that. Unfortunately, winters that good are a very rare miracle.

 

15-16 had that EPIC December, but other than that was mostly warm trash.

 

14-15 is self explanatory.

 

13-14 was the last real Arctic Blast.

 

Two years of drier than normal weather thus far with no sign of it ending. December and January are virtually guaranteed torches nowadays, and February is the only cold month. Not much good skiing before February, either. And of course, whenever interesting weather of any kind is shown on the models, it's always fun to guess whether it'll hit Seattle or Eugene.

It’s honestly too early for anyone to really make any prediction. All we can do is try to look at similar years and see what followed them. It’s hard to say though some years a cool summer didn’t yield good results some years it does.

[Omegaraptor]

It’s honestly too early for anyone to really make any prediction. All we can do is try to look at similar years and see what followed them. It’s hard to say though some years a cool summer didn’t yield good results some years it does.

Who even knows if this will be a cool summer though. NWS is still predicting warmer than average conditions throughout summer.

[Front Ranger]

Overall for the region, it's been a pretty good 3 winter stretch. Only thing missing is a full-on Arctic blast.

[Jesse]

2018-19 had a crap November-January and then we got missed all February just getting useless dry cold. Garbage precipitation throughout. Very few good things to say about this winter in the western metro area.

 

2017-18 was a bit better for PDX but still had a torching January. Precipitation wasn't exactly great.

 

2016-17 was good, I'll give you that. Unfortunately, winters that good are a very rare miracle.

 

15-16 had that EPIC December, but other than that was mostly warm trash.

 

14-15 is self explanatory.

 

13-14 was the last real Arctic Blast.

 

Two years of drier than normal weather thus far with no sign of it ending. December and January are virtually guaranteed torches nowadays, and February is the only cold month. Not much good skiing before February, either. And of course, whenever interesting weather of any kind is shown on the models, it's always fun to guess whether it'll hit Seattle or Eugene.

 

Keep in mind here that your definition of a "good" winter seems to be different than just about everyone else on this forum.

[ShawniganLake]

Who even knows if this will be a cool summer though. NWS is still predicting warmer than average conditions throughout summer.

Seems doubtful this will end up a cool summer.

[Deweydog]

Anybody want a hot dog?