July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

If it is always cloudier than normal, than is it normal for it to be cloudy?

Its not always cloudier than normal. The last 3 weeks were about as bad as it gets here in the summer in terms of persistent cloudiness with virtually no breaks.  That is extremely rare... even here.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS sure looks nice after we get past the deeper trough late in the week.

[TacomaWaWx]

75/58 day here in Tacoma. Clouds started to increase here a bit around sunset. Was a really beautiful weekend. We will see how conditions are this next weekend up at timberline. Hopefully it’s decent but if it rains oh well.

[TT-SEA]

75/58 day here in Tacoma. Clouds started to increase here a bit around sunset. Was a really beautiful weekend. We will see how conditions are this next weekend up at timberline. Hopefully it’s decent but if it rains oh well.

 

 

The old Simpson paper mill on the left... what makes Tacoma smell so lovely.    

 

Great people there though.   They were our client for years.   

[Phil]

Yeah, that's still probably the second hottest summer overall for the region, after 2012.

 

2012 saw an incredibly warm March-August here, which included the warmest March and June on record at DEN, and a July that just barely fell short of hottest on record.

Ugh, 2012 was the summer that hit 106*F here. Tied the record from 1930.

 

And that derecho knocked the power out in the middle of the first heatwave. A full week of 95-105 degree heat with no electricity and high humidity. No bueno.

[TacomaWaWx]

The old Simpson paper mill in the lower left corner... what makes Tacoma smell so lovely.

 

Great people there though. They were our client for years.

haha yeah here at my house we never get wind from the SE so we don’t get the smell here. The “Tacoma aroma” affects the port mainly.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Quite the Shawnigan shadow in the WRF:

 

[Phil]

Will someone post the euro precip maps for tomorrow? I'm helping someone replace a roof and I assured him it won't rain in the morning at all. The weather has been quite nice here since I got back from Georgia. The south sucks sweaty ballsacks.

Tim would love it. Guaranteed heat indices at/above 95*F every day, occasionally reaching 110-115*F.

 

The misery continues this week.

 

[TT-SEA]

Quite the Shawnigan shadow in the WRF:

 

 

 

Quite an Olympic rain shadow too.

[ShawniganLake]

haha yeah here at my house we never get wind from the SE so we don’t get the smell here. The “Tacoma aroma” affects the port mainly.

There is a paper mill about 30 miles north of here. Some people don’t notice it, but when we see light northerly winds, that “aroma” can settle in the valley here. It’s usually only noticeable in the morning hours.

[ShawniganLake]

Quite the Shawnigan shadow in the WRF:

 

Good ole NW flow.

[TT-SEA]

Tim would love it. Guaranteed heat indices at/above 95*F every day, occasionally reaching 110-115*F.

 

The misery continues this week.

 

 

So I went out of my way to let everyone know that today was the most ideal summer weather possible in my opinion... and yet you still go on with this crap!

 

Today was literally perfect. A few morning clouds... a few decorative cumulus this afternoon... some high clouds at sunset. High temperature in the upper 70s. Dewpoint around 50. Perfect for yard work this morning... perfect for the boat and water activities this afternoon... perfect for a late dinner outside on the patio.

 

If you want to encapsulate my definition of summer bliss... it was today. Mark it down.

[Front Ranger]

haha yeah here at my house we never get wind from the SE so we don’t get the smell here. The “Tacoma aroma” affects the port mainly.

Yep. I literally never smelled it while I lived there.

[TT-SEA]

Yep. I literally never smelled it while I lived there.

 

 

You can often smell it from I-5 if you don't have your vents in your car set to recirculate.    Hard to miss.

[Phil]

So I went out of my way to let everyone know that today was the most ideal summer weather possible in my opinion... and yet you still go on with this crap!

 

Today was literally perfect. A few morning clouds... a few decorative cumulus this afternoon... some high clouds at sunset. High temperature in the upper 70s. Dewpoint around 50. Perfect for yard work this morning... perfect for the boat and water activities this afternoon... perfect for a late dinner outside on the patio.

 

If you want to encapsulate my definition of summer bliss... it was today. Mark it down.

You said you wanted a heatwave?

[TT-SEA]

You said you wanted a heatwave?

I do... for the novelty of it. And to make it feel like a complete summer. Just like I want snow and arctic air in December or January... but not all winter.

 

But I would love the summer default to be exactly like today.

[Front Ranger]

You can often smell it from I-5 if you don't have your vents in your car set to recirculate. Hard to miss.

But you never smell it actually living there. At least not in the vast majority of the city.

[TT-SEA]

But you never smell it actually living there. At least not in the vast majority of the city.

Probably not... but I-5 runs right through the worst area hence the stinky reputation.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows a high of only 70 in Portland tomorrow... while its in the mid 70s in Seattle.

 

It also shows a band of rain over Portland tomorrow morning and some scattered showers in the afternoon from Olympia to Salem.   And then it all moves up into King County tomorrow evening before fading away.

[TT-SEA]

Total rain from the main system later this week per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

The main rain event is Wednesday evening through noon Thursday. Its dry by Thursday afternoon across the entire region.

 

A few scattered showers up north again on Friday morning... and then next weekend looks very close to a repeat of this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF never does show warmer than normal 850mb temps... even though day 10.

 

But days 8-10 are all shown to be in the 80-90 degree range from Seattle to Eugene despite the near normal or even slightly below normal 850mb temps.

 

I guess it can happen... today was a good example.

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF never does show warmer than normal 850mb temps... even though day 10.

 

But days 8-10 are all shown to be in the 80-90 degree range from Seattle to Eugene despite the near normal or even slightly below normal 850mb temps.

 

I guess it can happen... today was a good example.

It does have above normal 850mb temps D8-10.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice night. 64F in downtown Springfield.

[TT-SEA]

It does have above normal 850mb temps D8-10.

 

Maybe the Tropical Tidbits site is wrong then?   Here is day 8-10... basically normal or colder than normal at the 850mb level.

 

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Waking up to a wet ground in Tacoma and some light rain. 62 currently.

[Jesse]

Getting some nice rain here this morning. This makes up for the balmier than expected day yesterday.

[TacomaWaWx]

Rain was really well timed coming on a Monday after a really beautiful weekend. Has been light up here since we’re on the northern fringe of the rain.

[Jesse]

06z GFS ensemble hints that the warm up could be rather short lived.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Eugene/Springfield thought it was great.

Yeah, you guys got clobbered in December 2013.

[Tyler Mode]

0.03" so far but a warm 61 this morning.

 

Jesse, I noticed the same thing.  The warmth only lasts a couple days on this morning's runs.

[Jesse]

Picked up about .05” here with that little rain band. 62 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny this morning.

[Jesse]

Sunny this morning.

I think you get a charge out of reporting conditions that are wildly different from everyone else’s.

[ShawniganLake]

I think you get a charge out of reporting conditions that are wildly different from everyone else’s.

Definitely. You can clearly see the clouds just to our south.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00Z ECMWF never does show warmer than normal 850mb temps... even though day 10.

 

But days 8-10 are all shown to be in the 80-90 degree range from Seattle to Eugene despite the near normal or even slightly below normal 850mb temps.

 

I guess it can happen... today was a good example.

Yeah, there's much more to it than just 850mb temperatures. Yesterday, we had negative 850mb temps and it was in the mid to upper 80s down here.

[Kayla]

I think you get a charge out of reporting conditions that are wildly different from everyone else’s.

 

Sunny here this morning as well. 

[TT-SEA]

0.03" so far but a warm 61 this morning.

 

Jesse, I noticed the same thing.  The warmth only lasts a couple days on this morning's runs.

 

The morning runs don't start until 8:30.

 

In terms of longevity... here is the 10-15 day mean from the 00Z EPS:

 

[Jesse]

Yeah, there's much more to it than just 850mb temperatures. Yesterday, we had negative 850mb temps and it was in the mid to upper 80s down here.

Summer 2010 we had marine layer hell with positive 850mb temps at times.

[Jesse]

Sunny here this morning as well.

Sunny with a 100% chance of AWESOME!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like some rain made it into North Bend overnight, despite what the Euro showed.

 

Nice to see.