2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright (McConaughey accent)...let's all put the politics aside and focus on the weather folks...we all know where each of us stand and lets just keep it to ourselves.  There is another thread for this.  Make it a great day!

[Tom]

Just like last year, or maybe even earlier, the GEFS are advertising a slightly perturbed PV as we head through early October.  This has my interest.  Notice the Cross Polar Flow and elongated PV, likely caused by the low sea ice in the N PAC side of the Arctic and also a trending -AO.  This is a solid LR tool and a good predictor of a colder pattern for October.

[Tom]

Reading the headlines and NWS forecasts for the major storm that is about to hit MT is teasing me a bit for Winter...

 

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
415 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019

MTZ009-010-044-046-048-049-270000-
/O.UPG.KTFX.WS.A.0010.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.W.0009.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/
Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole-
Eastern Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Teton-
Including Logan Pass, Marias Pass, Browning, Heart Butte,
Cut Bank, Shelby, Sunburst, Brady, Conrad, Bynum, Choteau,
Augusta, Fairfield, and Dutton
415 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blizzard conditions possible. Total
snow accumulations of mostly 15 to 36 inches on the plains, but
even higher amounts expected in the mountains. North to
northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph could gust as high as 40 mph,
causing dangerous wind chill temperatures of zero to 10 degrees
above zero.

 

 

[jaster220]

Not a new forecast (Joe D'Aleo 17-18 winter) but the discussion and review of recent winters since The Blob dominated the 2013-14 season is again applicable. Anyhoo, I find these write-ups and the history they contain very appealing. Something to pass the time as we await the more active season looming..

 

https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/bho-winter.pdf

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 is probably latching onto to the colder subsurface waters that are building and lurking across the equatorial PAC.  What is noteworthy are the recent cooler runs for the ENSO 3.4 region that are leaning towards a La Nada or maybe a weak Nina...maybe.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

CFSv2 is probably latching onto to the colder subsurface waters that are building and lurking across the equatorial PAC. What is noteworthy are the recent cooler runs for the ENSO 3.4 region that are leaning towards a La Nada or maybe a weak Nina...maybe.

I still wouldn't mind seeing 3.4 hold a .5 going through October and November before it wanes off against the contrast of a Niña style east Pac. Still trips the modoki index with insurance of a "no Niño" winter. Aka a win-win situation.

 

The N.Pac is a whole other story. I'd like to see 2 colder bands form near N. America over the next 30 days before I really draw a conclusion. The amplification up north is looking nice with the open water and warmth near AK but need the whole of the mid latitudes in the Pacific to tone it down a tad or we'll get ridged out all cold season while cutters dominate the pattern for 5 months.

[Niko]

Colors are definitely becoming more ripe as days are passing here in SMI.

[jaster220]

Should be quite the wx roller-coaster here this week with high temps ranging from the 80s down to the 50s. Transiting seasons for sure as we open Oct.

[Niko]

Should be quite the wx roller-coaster here this week with high temps ranging from the 80s down to the 50s. Transiting seasons for sure as we open Oct.

Yes sir.....my area will go from record high 80s to 50s for highs and 30s for lows.

 

https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1508264165352-258db2ebd59b?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjExMDk0fQ&auto=format&fit=crop&w=500&q=60

[Andie]

Moving into autumn like a herd of winded turtles!

 

[Grizzcoat]

Coeur d’Alene, Idaho/ Spokane, Washington, earliest accumulating measurable snow ever, over 100 years of records, 15 October 1930 1/2 inch of snow was recorded.

[OKwx2k4]

That's awesome Grizzcoat!! Earliest ever! Has me excited.

[Tom]

Snow Cover across the Northern Hemisphere is advancing at an AN pace across Canada & Russia....#winteriscoming

 

 

[Tom]

There are some interesting trends off the CFSv2 which may suggest that the new LRC pattern may yet again deliver a SER as part of it's main exhibit??? Blocking has been steadily been on the rise in the high lats on each daily run and today's is certainly suggesting a -NAO/-AO pattern. The maps below def look like a La Nina (ish) type pattern which will aid in keeping the "Central CONUS Show' alive and well like last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trends in temps/precip are raising eye brows....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interestingly, I took a look back at the models forecast for precip at this same time last year and it is amazingly similar...

 

[jaster220]

Interestingly, I took a look back at the models forecast for precip at this same time last year and it is amazingly similar...

 

Yep, very wet month last October per KBTL data. The first 12 days of October were also a roller-coaster ride with high temps from mid-40s to mid-80s! Last 2/3 of the month were consistently normal to a little below. 

 

As for the SER you also mentioned. I know JB in his prelim outlook mentioned that as well. Saying it will keep the East Coast out of the early winter snows. A more recent update by TWC (The Weather Centre) has modified that somewhat. They also see a ridge but keep it more across Dixie vs ridging all the way up the coast. Thus allowing PA and east to be a sweet spot for the winter. Temps departure map would look a lot like the one you recently posted for early Oct 10-11

 

 

Basically, they're saying this map would be their call for winter temps. whereas their earlier call (late July) was focused further west not unlike JB's. 

 

Only 2-3 wks to wait for the more serious outlooks to update their calls..should be interesting. 

[OKwx2k4]

There are some interesting trends off the CFSv2 which may suggest that the new LRC pattern may yet again deliver a SER as part of it's main exhibit??? Blocking has been steadily been on the rise in the high lats on each daily run and today's is certainly suggesting a -NAO/-AO pattern. The maps below def look like a La Nina (ish) type pattern which will aid in keeping the "Central CONUS Show' alive and well like last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trends in temps/precip are raising eye brows....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interestingly, I took a look back at the models forecast for precip at this same time last year and it is amazingly similar...

 

You mean like the last 4 years. Lol. Good grief. If there was ever bad news, being anything like the last 4 years is it.

[Andie]

Yeah, Southcentral US was Stinkville this year.

[jaster220]

​ Here's 2013-14 analog again..and on a newly released (this week) outlook. As "down to earth" as these guys are, I figured I'd stumbled on some midwest or Plains region outfit. Was quite shocked to find they're actually EC folks. I think they have a nice vid without going too deep with all the wx geek research stuff that many sites include. (11 mins total)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehVCUa24XCQ

[Niko]

​ Here's 2013-14 analog again..and on a newly released (this week) outlook. As "down to earth" as these guys are, I figured I'd stumbled on some midwest or Plains region outfit. Was quite shocked to find they're actually EC folks. I think they have a nice vid without going too deep with all the wx geek research stuff that many sites include. (11 mins total)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehVCUa24XCQ

Here is to another 2013-14 Winter season Amigo! Cant wait to see their last video towards the end of October. Great search btw.

[Grizzcoat]

Browning is at 4400'. Hardly high elevation for 4' of snow in September. That must be a record in Sept for snowfall below 5280' in the lower 48 (at least) 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Also some crazy cold being reported. Some of these sites have some history behind them. Wait till the skies clear out for the mins----

 

 

Record Report

000
SXUS75 KTFX 300206 AAA
RERTFX

RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
805 PM MDT SUN SEP 29 2019

MTZ008>015-044>055-300710-

...RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEP 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN
BOZEMAN YELL APT 35 40 1983 1935
CHOTEAU 28 34 1954 1893
CUT BANK 29 32 1954 1903
DILLON AIRPORT 29 36 1950 1929
GRASS RANGE 34 42 2018 1914
GREAT FALLS APT 32 35 1954 1886
HELENA 33 38 1925 1866
HOLTER DAM 30 37 1954 1903
HAVRE 33 39 1982 1880
LEWISTOWN APT 32 34 1950 1896
SIMPSON 33 45 1985 1948
STANFORD 32 37 1954 1927
TURNER 32 36 1982 1948
TOWNSEND 34 41 1965 1901

...RECORD HIGH PRECIPITATION FOR SEP 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU 0.60 0.55 1925 1893
GRASS RANGE 2.13 0.40 1983 1914
GREAT FALLS APT 0.60 0.40 1937 1886
HAVRE 0.65 0.44 1925 1880
SIMPSON 0.30 0.22 1966 1948
TURNER 1.10 0.64 1977 1948


...RECORD HIGH SNOWFALL FOR SEP 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU 9.0 6.0 1925 1893
GRASS RANGE 6.0 1.0 1983 1914
GREAT FALLS APT 9.6 1.1 1954 1886
STANFORD 3.0 1.9 1954 1927
TOWNSEND 1.0 0.0 2015 1901

[Tom]

Browning is at 4400'. Hardly high elevation for 4' of snow in September. That must be a record in Sept for snowfall below 5280' in the lower 48 (at least) 

 

WeatherStory2.png

Ol' Man Winter has cometh Grizz!  This storm has certainly broke many records out west and likely a harbinger of things to come as we roll into October.  I like the fact that the pattern going forward keeps SW/W Canada cold/stormy and begins to lay down the snow up that way early in October bc as the pattern progresses later into Nov and the Winter season, this will be our source region for cold.

 

On another note, the Sun has been asleep for nearly a month straight.  We are in the midst of a deep solar minimum and I'm beginning to really believe high lat blocking will be a key component this season.

 

 

 

2019 IS A DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Today, the sun racked up its 198th spotless day of the year. So far in 2019, the sun has been blank 73% of the time. This is the same percentage as the year 2008--previously the least sun-spotty year of the Space Age. If Solar Minimum continues to deepen, 2019 will soon claim the undisputed throne of Space Age spotlessness, marking it as a century-class minimum in solar activity.

[jaster220]

Ol' Man Winter has cometh Grizz!  This storm has certainly broke many records out west and likely a harbinger of things to come as we roll into October.  I like the fact that the pattern going forward keeps SW/W Canada cold/stormy and begins to lay down the snow up that way early in October bc as the pattern progresses later into Nov and the Winter season, this will be our source region for cold.

 

On another note, the Sun has been asleep for nearly a month straight.  We are in the midst of a deep solar minimum and I'm beginning to really believe high lat blocking will be a key component this season.

 

Solar Minimum working it's (cold) magic alright. In the NWS records report I saw one location beat their "coolest daily high" by 8F and that record was 101 years old! 

 

Also of interesting note was the list of precipitation records set. In that list I saw Sept's 1925, 1966, & 1977.  All (3) following winters were notoriously big in our region for cold & snow-storminess. Mere Coincidence??

[jaster220]

Browning is at 4400'. Hardly high elevation for 4' of snow in September. That must be a record in Sept for snowfall below 5280' in the lower 48 (at least) 

 

WeatherStory2.png

 

Considering the 8-12" that fell just a county north of me on Oct 12th of 2006 (not that much later) with virtually no elevation, it's not too hard to imagine. 

[james1976]

That winter storm is amazing up there. Hopefully a sign of things to come!

[jaster220]

Here is to another 2013-14 Winter season Amigo! Cant wait to see their last video towards the end of October. Great search btw.

 

Cheers! to another cold-n-snowy season if we can hold serve with current projections. Funny how nobody else commented on it, not even Tom who's certainly in the game to score well. Gonna be crickets in here (again) if those on the west of the sub aren't getting all the action like last winter. 

[Niko]

Cheers! to another cold-n-snowy season if we can hold serve with current projections. Funny how nobody else commented on it, not even Tom who's certainly in the game to score well. Gonna be crickets in here (again) if those on the west of the sub aren't getting all the action like last winter. 

:lol:

[Tom]

Cheers! to another cold-n-snowy season if we can hold serve with current projections. Funny how nobody else commented on it, not even Tom who's certainly in the game to score well. Gonna be crickets in here (again) if those on the west of the sub aren't getting all the action like last winter.

I did watch the vid earlier this morning but then got busy with phone calls that I had to do and run some errands. With that being said, I have to say, I wouldn’t mind at all if their forecast plays out. They do point out several factors which I’ve been leaning towards (SER, Canadian Vortex, W/SW Ridge). I’d like to see this pattern work through at least early Nov to see where we’ve been to either confirm or deny some of the above factors. My gut says our region is sitting in a better position than last years storm track.

[jaster220]

I did watch the vid earlier this morning but then got busy with phone calls that I had to do and run some errands. With that being said, I have to say, I wouldn’t mind at all if their forecast plays out. They do point out several factors which I’ve been leaning towards (SER, Canadian Vortex, W/SW Ridge). I’d like to see this pattern work through at least early Nov to see where we’ve been to either confirm or deny some of the above factors. My gut says our region is sitting in a better position than last years storm track.

 

Gosh, I surely hope so. But yeah, have to see where we're at in a month's time. Remembering last year, I (we) thought "cold winter" was a lock for our region. JB's top analog (02-03) was looking strong/likely. I had mixed feelings about that fairly boring and dry winter since most everything was just SE of Marshall. Now, if I have a concern, it's that his call for last year happens this winter (delay, but not denied, lol). Plenty of outlooks painting that same 02-03 sweet streak SE of here thru OH/PA.

[OKwx2k4]

Also some crazy cold being reported. Some of these sites have some history behind them. Wait till the skies clear out for the mins----

 

Record Report

000

SXUS75 KTFX 300206 AAA

RERTFX

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT

805 PM MDT SUN SEP 29 2019

 

MTZ008>015-044>055-300710-

 

...RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEP 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL

AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

 

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN

BOZEMAN YELL APT 35 40 1983 1935

CHOTEAU 28 34 1954 1893

CUT BANK 29 32 1954 1903

DILLON AIRPORT 29 36 1950 1929

GRASS RANGE 34 42 2018 1914

GREAT FALLS APT 32 35 1954 1886

HELENA 33 38 1925 1866

HOLTER DAM 30 37 1954 1903

HAVRE 33 39 1982 1880

LEWISTOWN APT 32 34 1950 1896

SIMPSON 33 45 1985 1948

STANFORD 32 37 1954 1927

TURNER 32 36 1982 1948

TOWNSEND 34 41 1965 1901

 

...RECORD HIGH PRECIPITATION FOR SEP 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

 

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN

CHOTEAU 0.60 0.55 1925 1893

GRASS RANGE 2.13 0.40 1983 1914

GREAT FALLS APT 0.60 0.40 1937 1886

HAVRE 0.65 0.44 1925 1880

SIMPSON 0.30 0.22 1966 1948

TURNER 1.10 0.64 1977 1948

 

 

...RECORD HIGH SNOWFALL FOR SEP 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL

AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

 

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET RECORDS BEGAN

CHOTEAU 9.0 6.0 1925 1893

GRASS RANGE 6.0 1.0 1983 1914

GREAT FALLS APT 9.6 1.1 1954 1886

STANFORD 3.0 1.9 1954 1927

TOWNSEND 1.0 0.0 2015 1901

Thank you for sharing those! I was starting to get curious. Definitely a magnificent storm!

[OKwx2k4]

I'm going to wear out the like button today! Good posts guys.

 

In short, I'd take a late November tease of winter and an 8" season with some locking cold to keep the snow in the ground if that was all I can get. Anything more will be a bonus and anything less would just be another disappointment.

 

If we do a 2000/2008 blend though (solar, mixed ssts signals) I may as well say goodbye to all my electricity and trees. Lol. Atmosphere has been moisture-laden for 3 months and has me concerned about ice vs snow events in the winter.

[Tom]

Snow & Ice cover is on the rise quite nicely up across our neighbors to the north and over in Russia/Siberia...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big spike in Eurasian snow cover right before the open of October...a rapid rise in the Snow Advance Index (SAI) could be a big clue for a blocking pattern up across the Arctic.

 

[Andie]

.

If we do a 2000/2008 blend though (solar, mixed ssts signals) I may as well say goodbye to all my electricity and trees. Lol. Atmosphere has been moisture-laden for 3 months and has me concerned about ice vs snow events in the winter.

So are you thinking it will dip south into Texas? Or just up on Okla/Kan border?

 

I'm concerned Texas I'll have a dry winter and that's rough on us.

[westMJim]

The month of September was a very warm one. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 66.4° that was good for a departure of +3.6.  And that is good for the 11^th warmest September on record at Grand Rapids. The high for the month was 88 on the 11^th and the low was 48 on the 5^th there were 10 days with highs in the 80’s 12 days with highs in the 70’s and 8 days with a high in the 60’s it was a wet month with 7.32” of rain fall and that was good for the 10^th wettest September on record.

At Muskegon the mean for the month was 66.4° and that was a departure of +4.3. September 2019 was the 3^rd warmest of record at Muskegon.  The High for the month was 85° on the 11^th and the low was 47 on the 5^th There was 5.85” of rain at Muskegon.

At Kalamazoo the mean was a whopping 68.7° and that was +6.3 above average. And it was the 2^nd warmest September on record at Kalamazoo. The high for the month was a hot 92 on the 11^th and the low was 50 on the 5^th There was 4.11” of reported rain fall.

To our east there was too much missing data at Lansing to come up with a summery for the month.

[OKwx2k4]

So are you thinking it will dip south into Texas? Or just up on Okla/Kan border?

 

I'm concerned Texas I'll have a dry winter and that's rough on us.

I'm still of the mindset that this ridge cannot last forever. I think central and SW tx rainfall will pick up if we see a southwesterly flow this winter. Right now I'd say you'll finish fall increasing in rainfall and see a wet winter. These patterns have a tendency to snap rather quickly even if it does seem like its wearing on our patience down here.

[Niko]

OKwx2k4- do you think 13-14 is in the works for this upcoming Winter season 19-20?"

[jaster220]

Snow & Ice cover is on the rise quite nicely up across our neighbors to the north and over in Russia/Siberia...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big spike in Eurasian snow cover right before the open of October...a rapid rise in the Snow Advance Index (SAI) could be a big clue for a blocking pattern up across the Arctic.

 

 

I think it fills-in quite rapidly during this month and it's nice to see it evenly dispersed on both sides of the Hemi, not just "over there". Looks like last autumn was one of the slowest SAI's in the last decade. 

 

Some pretty shocking cold where that snow fell in MT

 

[Tom]

I think it fills-in quite rapidly during this month and it's nice to see it evenly dispersed on both sides of the Hemi, not just "over there". Looks like last autumn was one of the slowest SAI's in the last decade.

 

Some pretty shocking cold where that snow fell in MT

 

20191001 11am Temps.JPG

Indeed! This is just the beginning...stay tuned!

[OKwx2k4]

OKwx2k4- do you think 13-14 is in the works for this upcoming Winter season 19-20?"

If we go colder than a 08-09 or 2000-01 then yes. Honestly though, it's hard to do a 13-14. Reason being +AO during that winter (if I'm not mistaken) and just the right combinations of things. To me, 13 (cold spring/neverending summer until it crashed) was a colder example of the 2 years I used. 2008-2009 is a textbook case of what happens when the tropics destructively interfere with 2013's pattern if that makes any sense. 2000-2001 is there because of the "hit hard" nature of it. December 2000 was a blend of snow and destructive ice then snow again that will be hard to beat. Moisture laden atmosphere and cold from November on makes whacky and extreme winter weather. That was 2000 over eastern Ok.

[Tom]

WxBell suggesting the Toledo/Detroit magnet...