Requiem Posted September 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 GFS sticking to its guns. Fun fun fun fun. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 I’m saying that with climate change comes a change in vegetation as well and that includes tree die off. I also don’t think the 2-3 years a of really dry and hot summers we had were not a result of climate change.To be fair, this is not what you were saying before. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 To be fair, this is not what you were saying before.To also be fair, I don’t think he even knows what he was saying before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 That is a ridiculously cold airmass for this early in the 00z GFS. Thicknesses down to 535dm for Portland. 850s bottom out at -2c. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Wad is gonna be blown too early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Wad is gonna be blown too early. Definitely happened in 1972. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Wad is gonna be blown too early.Let’s leave personal banter off the forum. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Ensemble support continues to be solid as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Let’s leave personal banter off the forum.I almost thought you typed batter not banter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Wad is gonna be blown too early. That simply isn't true with September / October cold snaps. Many of our greatest winters have notable cold snaps in that time frame. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 That simply isn't true with September / October cold snaps. Many of our greatest winters have notable cold snaps in that time frame.No need to be defensive over a smart a** remark, it was a joke, I hope... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Ensemble support continues to be solid as well.Speaking of personal banter.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 It’s all relative..mid-80’s at the end of September are pretty horrific IMO.And this torch has a looong way to run..probably won’t flip around until the 3rd week of October. Feels like 2018. mid 80s in mid late september mostly sucks when we are ready for cooler temperatures when summer is stupidity hanging around.I blame it on all that hot air coming out of Dc by the way 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Ensemble support continues to be solid as well. This looks like a really notable cold snap coming up. It has the classic surface pressure signature that initiates out winter Arctic blasts. Heavy frost is a very real possibility in the Western lowlands by next weekend. Some early cold snaps that led to great winters happened in... 1949195519561971197219831984198519962008 Just to name a few. I still clearly remember the 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 2008 early cold snaps. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 That simply isn't true with September / October cold snaps. Many of our greatest winters have notable cold snaps in that time frame.What is it with this forum and the voodoo autumn correlation stuff? It exists on eastern forums but it’s worse here. None of it holds any statistical significance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 What is it with this forum and the voodoo autumn correlation stuff? It exists on eastern forums but it’s worse here. None of it holds any statistical significance.Shouldn't bother you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 What is it with this forum and the voodoo autumn correlation stuff? It exists on eastern forums but it’s worse here. None of it holds any statistical significance.Just a random collection of dummies on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Starting to rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 This looks like a really notable cold snap coming up. It has the classic surface pressure signature that initiates out winter Arctic blasts. Heavy frost is a very real possibility in the Western lowlands by next weekend. Some early cold snaps that led to great winters happened in... 1949195519561971197219831984198519962008 Just to name a few. I still clearly remember the 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 2008 early cold snaps.There were cold snaps in Oct 2002 & 2012 as well, just to name a few that pop into mind. The important thing is what’s actually causing the cold snap..all except one of the years you listed (1972) were La Niñas. The tropics will not even remotely resemble a -ENSO regime this winter. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Shouldn't bother you.Who says it bothers me? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Clear and 57 here, but will probably be clouding up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Go Cougs!This aged poorly 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 This aged poorlyStill say it... but that was an epic collapse. Almost surreal. Has to be close to a record. Complete insanity. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 EURO looks quite a bit colder than last run (at least at hour 168 from what it seems). This is regarding 850 mb temps, I have no idea about the surface. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 EURO looks quite a bit colder than last run (at least at hour 168 from what it seems). This is regarding 850 mb temps, I have no idea about the surface.Yeah, definitely a move toward the GFS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 56F and increasing clouds ahead of today’s front. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Who says it bothers me?You get very annoyed at anything you do not agree with, which is weird since you know nothing about west coast weather patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Who says it bothers me? Lol it clearly bothers you since have commented on it 100 times over the last 2 weeks since this cool September pattern topic started to happen. Jim has a different opinion than you, so what? If it doesn’t bother you than don’t comment on it. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 58 and cloudy here this morning. Has rained 0.01” since midnight so far. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Still say it... but that was an epic collapse. Almost surreal. Has to be close to a record. Complete insanity. I remember in 1993 Oregon led Cal 30-3 at halftime and lost... What is amazing about this Cougar collapse is UCLA for 3 1/2 games was completely lifeless... Kind of a crappy day for ranked Pac-12 teams. Half of them lost this weekend. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 This looks like a really notable cold snap coming up. It has the classic surface pressure signature that initiates out winter Arctic blasts. Heavy frost is a very real possibility in the Western lowlands by next weekend. Some early cold snaps that led to great winters happened in... 1949195519561971197219831984198519962008 Just to name a few. I still clearly remember the 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, and 2008 early cold snaps. 1996/97 sucked south of Tacoma. But yes cold in this time frame is often a good sign. And Phil's mention of 2002 and 2012 is kind of irrelevant. Those cold snaps were in late October. The fall of 2002 was very dry through October, and fall 2012 was dry through about the 12th of October. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 You get very annoyed at anything you do not agree with, which is weird since you know nothing about west coast weather patterns.I base my conclusions off numbers/data, not intuition/feelings, if that’s what you mean. I sometimes do the latter for my area, since I’ve lived here my entire life, but if the data argues against it I’ll still always go with the more scientific approach. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Lol it clearly bothers you since have commented on it 100 times over the last 2 weeks since this cool September pattern topic started to happen. Jim has a different opinion than you, so what? If it doesn’t bother you than don’t comment on it.Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes. I’ve wasted too much energy on this. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Phil when do you see this pattern changing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Crazy torchy fall in the works. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 55F and wet this morning in downtown Springfield. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 FWIW this would break the record for earliest accumulating snowfall in the Bend, OR area by about 2 weeks... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes. I’ve wasted too much energy on this. Not trying to bust your balls at all I’m just saying that your going to make yourself go crazy trying to change someone else’s opinion. Best thing you can do, wait for your forecast to verify and then say I told you so...if your forecast is correct! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 58 degrees currently and 0.06” so far this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2019 Report Share Posted September 22, 2019 .23” so far on the day, 3.75” on the month. Currently moderate rain and 56 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.