September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes.

 

 

Will the post bumps about the late month mega ridge be coming soon? Getting close to verification time.

 

I was actually just about to start the heatwave forecast thread.

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will the post bumps about the late month mega ridge be coming soon? Getting close to verification time.

 

Progression really looking a lot like 2002 and 2012 at this point.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is quite a bit further east in the Thursday/Friday timeframe... more sun and less rain on those days as well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS is quite a bit further east in the Thursday/Friday timeframe... more sun and less rain on those days as well. 

 

Dry arctic blast.

[Timmy Supercell]

Clouds this morning. A nice change from that annoying orb in the sky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dreary day.

 

[Phil]

Will the post bumps about the late month mega ridge be coming soon? Getting close to verification time.

 

I was actually just about to start the heatwave forecast thread.

You had better troll me mercilessly over late Sep..I’d lose respect for you if you didn’t.

 

Look, I admit I’m a bit angsty thanks to this nightmarish semester and relentless heat frying my brain. But my forecasts are always made with the best of faith. And no matter how I analyze things, I reach the same conclusion when extrapolating forward. I really do think it’s a case of “delayed not denied”.

 

And FWIW, I’d love nothing more than to see you guys score a winter that puts 1949/50 to shame and forever buries the stupid “can’t happen because of globular worming” arguments. I’m not invested personally right now..I’d much rather torch in the winter than summer, especially if someone else gets slammed (vs a hopeless zonal outcome that climate zealots will seize on).

 

But I’m not going to forecast just to please the crowd here or wishcast my personal desires. That’s a recipe for failure. I make enough mistakes as it is.

[Timmy Supercell]

[Phil]

[MossMan]

Dreary day.

 

Sure is.

[Jesse]

Sure is.

 

Looks like some of your deciduous trees in the background have died.

[Phil]

Looks like some of your deciduous trees in the background have died.

I told him that last year and he brushed it off.

[MossMan]

Looks like some of your deciduous trees in the background have died.

Two of them, they have been dead for years from the looks of it. Cutting them down is on my to do list, I think they died of too much water to be honest, they are right where a massive amount of water would pool up, my drainage project that I still need to finish up will take care of that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see things so green out there. If we don't get soaking rains before mid-October the vegetation goes dormant with with everything brown. 

[MossMan]

I told him that last year and he brushed it off.

They were dead last year as well. Probably for the last 5 years. You are not the only landscaping expert on the forum, I am not concerned about two dead alders.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have an 80 foot spruce that died during the blowtorch summer of 2017, still need to take it down. 

[Jesse]

Two of them, they have been dead for years from the looks of it. Cutting them down is on my to do list, I think they died of too much water to be honest, they are right where a massive amount of water would pool up, my drainage project that I still need to finish up will take care of that.

 

Sure they did. We all know that trees around here HATE water. Strange that only people who seem to dislike rain notice this phenomenon.

[Front Ranger]

Fine. I’ll stop talking about “correlations”, save the posts in question, and then bump them when it’s all said and done for verification purposes.

 

I’ve wasted too much energy on this.

At least it doesn't bother you.

[ShawniganLake]

I have an 80 foot spruce that died during the blowtorch summer of 2017, still need to take it down.

#firewood

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is dry for the vast majority of the next 2 weeks.    A few days in there with scattered showers... but it would be a much less dreary overall if it verifies.

[Front Ranger]

Sure is.

Looks gorgeous. Would love some days like that here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#firewood

 

Yep, I was able to collect about 6 cords this year without paying a dime. I usually use about 2-3 cords a winter, so we are ready for the 1949-50 redux.

[Phil]

They were dead last year as well. Probably for the last 5 years. You are not the only landscaping expert on the forum, I am not concerned about two dead alders.

I don’t consider myself an “expert” in anything, but thanks for the compliment. I just hope you’re not in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

Way too many injuries/deaths here this year from dead ash trees falling (emerald ash borer beetles wiped them all out a few years ago). Insane how many are still up, leaning over roadways, sidewalks, etc. Dropping like toothpicks now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure they did. We all know that trees around here HATE water. Strange that only people who seem to dislike rain notice this phenomenon.

 

It happens, if for some reason they are standing in a newly formed beaver pond or something along those lines.

[Jesse]

It happens, if for some reason they are standing in a newly formed beaver pond or something along those lines.

Yeah, I was curious how they got to that size in the first place if they are in a location that constantly pools water. Trees don’t like growing in ponds.

[Front Ranger]

Humans can die from too much water too.

 

Much more common to see dehydration deaths, though.

[ShawniganLake]

Yep, I was able to collect about 6 cords this year without paying a dime. I usually use about 2-3 cords a winter, so we are ready for the 1949-50 redux.

Yea. We usually burn close to 2 cords. Had to buy a lot of that this year but at 250-300 bucks a cord it’s a bit expensive. Going to get an extra cord just in case we have a cold one and my wife is home on maternity leave this winter so the fire will probably be going more steady.

[TT-SEA]

Looks gorgeous. Would love some days like that here.

 

 

A little more balance would be nice up here as well.  

 

It has rained on 13 out of  the last 14 days in the Snoqualmie Valley with over 6.5 inches of rain in that time.    And there will likely be at least some rain on each of the next 5 or 6 days.

 

Normal for September in the Snoqualmie Valley is a total 10 days with rain in the month... and an average monthly total of 2.97 inches.  Not balanced right now.   

 

It will likely even out in October or November with some unusually long dry stretches.    But I wish it would be balance out more on a weekly basis.    And you probably wish the same for your area.

[MossMan]

Sure they did. We all know that trees around here HATE water. Strange that only people who seem to dislike rain notice this phenomenon.

Those two trees are just to right...underwater most of the winter.

[Jesse]

Those two trees are just to right...underwater most of the winter.

 

All I see to the right is a TON of invasive himalayan blackberry. Wow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS is dry for the vast majority of the next 2 weeks.    A few days in there with scattered showers... but it would be a much less dreary overall if it verifies.

 

Cooler nights though.

 

#summersover

[ShawniganLake]

A little more balance would be nice up here as well.

 

It has rained on 13 out of the last 14 days in the Snoqualmie Valley with over 6.5 inches of rain in that time. And there will likely be at least some rain on each of the next 5 or 6 days.

 

Normal for September in the Snoqualmie Valley is a total 10 days with rain in the month... and an average monthly total of 2.97 inches. Not balanced right now.

 

It will likely even out in October or November with some unusually long dry stretches. But I wish it would be balance out more on a weekly basis. And you probably wish the same for your area.

Jet suppression. Prince Rupert has only had 5.5” in September and they average 10.5”+

[MossMan]

Yeah, I was curious how they got to that size in the first place if they are in a location that constantly pools water. Trees don’t like growing in ponds.

Probably when the original owners cleared this portion of the property to build it changed how the water went. I’m sure glad everyone knows my property better than I do! Sorry big guy, we are not dying of dehydration up here...even though you wish we were so you can continue your everything is dying agenda.

[TT-SEA]

Cooler nights though.

 

#summersover

 

Summer has been over for 22 days.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice to see things so green out there. If we don't get soaking rains before mid-October the vegetation goes dormant with with everything brown. 

 

I'm kind of hoping that October isn't dry this year.

[TT-SEA]

Jet suppression. Prince Rupert has only had 5.5” in September and they average 10.5”+

 

Indeed.

[Jesse]

Probably when the original owners cleared this portion of the property to build it changed how the water went. I’m sure glad everyone knows my property better than I do! Sorry big guy, we are not dying of dehydration up here...even though you wish we were so you can continue your everything is dying agenda.

 

[MossMan]

All I see to the right is a TON of invasive himalayan blackberry. Wow.

Those are gone now, took them out when I had the excavator earlier this year.

[TacomaWaWx]

A little more balance would be nice up here as well.

 

It has rained on 13 out of the last 14 days in the Snoqualmie Valley with over 6.5 inches of rain in that time. And there will likely be at least some rain on each of the next 5 or 6 days.

 

Normal for September in the Snoqualmie Valley is a total 10 days with rain in the month... and an average monthly total of 2.97 inches. Not balanced right now.

 

It will likely even out in October or November with some unusually long dry stretches. But I wish it would be balance out more on a weekly basis. And you probably wish the same for your area.

It’s rained 13 out of the last 16 here and up to 2.42” in that timeframe. 9 of those days were consecutive which is actually a record at my location.