September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Including the rain this morning... SEA is at 5.30 inches since July 1st.     Normal rainfall for that period is 2.75 inches.    That is 192% of normal since July 1st.... which is just about 200% as I said.

 

By month:

 

July - 164% of normal

August - 136% of normal

September - 252% of normal (so far)

 

Per long term means:

 

SEA was +.44 for July, +.15" for August, and is now +1.14" for September. 

 

Normal total precip for those three months is 3.57", in 2019 it's been 5.30". Which is 148% of long term means.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX is the driest place in the Portland metro, isn’t it?

 

They record about 36”/year. Tualatin Valley is the next driest place in the metro.

[TT-SEA]

Per long term means:

 

SEA was +.44 for July, +.15" for August, and is now +1.14" for September. 

 

Normal total precip for those three months is 3.57", in 2019 it's been 5.30". Which is 148% of long term means.

 

 

You are reading it wrong.  

 

SEA was +.45 for July,  +.32 for August, and +1.72 for September (as of midnight).

 

Normal precip for that period is 2.75 inches.    Total rainfall (including the rain this morning) is 5.30 inches since July 1st.

 

Just about 200% of normal... and this is accurate by month:

 

July - 164% of normal

August - 136% of normal

September - 252% of normal (so far)

[Jesse]

Good lord...

[Front Ranger]

This year, May has been the driest month at SEA with just .62" falling. Every month since then has progressively got wetter, which has never happened before.

 

Overall, May has been incredibly dry since 2015. Four of the past five Mays have had under 1" of rain at SEA, and 3 of the 7 driest Mays on record have occurred during this period.

[Front Ranger]

You are reading it wrong.  

 

SEA was +.45 for July,  +.32 for August, and +1.72 for September (as of midnight).

 

Normal precip for that period is 2.75 inches.    Total rainfall (including the rain this morning) is 5.30 inches since July 1st.

 

Just about 200% of normal... and this is accurate by month:

 

July - 164% of normal

August - 136% of normal

September - 252% of normal (so far)

 

Look at the long term means: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa7473

 

Posting the same thing twice is pointless.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks like the 00Z ECMWF with the rain for later next week... which mostly stays south of WA.  

[Omegaraptor]

This year, May has been the driest month at SEA with just .62" falling. Every month since then has progressively got wetter, which has never happened before.

 

Overall, May has been incredibly dry since 2015. Four of the past five Mays have had under 1" of rain at SEA, and 3 of the 7 driest Mays on record have occurred during this period.

May has also been persistently warmer than normal at both PDX and SEA.

[TT-SEA]

Look at the long term means: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa7473

 

Posting the same thing twice is pointless.

 

 

I am using the NWS data.  

 

Also... SEA was at +1.72 for September to date as of midnight... not +1.14 as you said.

[Jesse]

May has also been persistently warmer than normal at both PDX and SEA.

It has essentially become a new summer month, for the time being.

[TT-SEA]

This year, May has been the driest month at SEA with just .62" falling. Every month since then has progressively got wetter, which has never happened before.

 

 

 

I have said several times that the progression this year has been strange with it actually getting wetter as we moved into the driest part of the year.   Interesting that its never happened before.

 

Also why I am subjectively giving Phil major kudos for his overall forecast.  

[Front Ranger]

I am using the NWS data.  

 

Also... SEA was at +1.72 for September to date as of midnight... not +1.14 as you said.

 

The long term means give the best picture of what is "normal" for a station. More data.

 

The numbers I gave were accurate. +1.14" above the long term mean.

[MossMan]

Good lord...

Good lord..

[Front Ranger]

I have said several times that the progression this year has been strange with it actually getting wetter as we moved into the driest part of the year.   Interesting that its never happened before.

 

Also why I am subjectively giving Phil major kudos for his overall forecast.  

 

Well, his forecast was for May - September, and the first half of that was well below normal. In fact, looking back at his posts in late spring, he kept on indicating a very wet pattern was imminent in May/June...did not materialize.

 

So yes, subjective is a good way to put it. 

[ShawniganLake]

Good lord..

Got your drainage project finished yet?

[Jesse]

Good lord..

This sort of thing keeps coming up because you foothills babies can’t seem to accept average or even slightly below average rainfall...

 

Record dry or cry!

[GHweatherChris]

You’re the only one who responded to my post. Flatiron’s accurate depiction of rainfall deficits over the last year got the usual suspects all riled up, though.

 

Pay attention, Chris.

Nope, you put your finger on the trigger, Flatiron pulled it, I was making popcorn in preparation for the show upcoming.

[Jesse]

Nope, you put your finger on the trigger, Flatiron pulled it, I was making popcorn in preparation for the s**t show upcoming.

smh

[Omegaraptor]

This sort of thing keeps coming up because you foothills babies can’t seem to accept average or even slightly below average rainfall...

Record dry or cry!

Reminds me of when Farmboy moved to 5000’ elevation Idaho in May and complained about it being too cold. Pretty sure Idaho was warmer than normal that May. It was pretty amusing.

[MossMan]

Got your drainage project finished yet?

No. Looking back I really should have finished it the last week of August...But then my relatives from Minnesota came to stay with us last minute and then it has been game on since. I last worked on it the afternoon of the 7th before our big lightning show fall kick off! I need to get it done, will probably work on it this weekend. Trench is there so if the water does start flowing it will have a place to go for the time being.

[Jesse]

Reminds me of when Farmboy moved to 5000’ elevation Idaho in May and complained about it being too cold. Pretty sure Idaho was warmer than normal that May. It was pretty amusing.

I think he finally decided to move his trinket cart to Dallol, Ethiopia this year.

[TT-SEA]

The long term means give the best picture of what is "normal" for a station. More data.

 

The numbers I gave were accurate. +1.14" above the long term mean.

 

Well... you are using the entire monthly long-term average for September and comparing to midnight last night.    

 

The NWS says normal for all of September in total is 1.50 inches... SEA is currently at 2.95 inches.    You are saying normal for September is 1.74 inches and its done raining for the month as of midnight.    But its raining this morning and there is good chance of significant c-zone rainfall tomorrow.  

 

I have always used the NWS data... which is 30-year averages.    I think the 1945-75 period was unusually wet overall.   It would be interesting to see how it compares to the 1915-45 period using another station.   

[Jesse]

Crippling drought or pout!

[GHweatherChris]

smh

Lolz

[MossMan]

[ShawniganLake]

No. Looking back I really should have finished it the last week of August...But then my relatives from Minnesota came to stay with us last minute and then it has been game on since. I last worked on it the afternoon of the 7th before our big lightning show fall kick off! I need to get it done, will probably work on it this weekend. Trench is there so if the water does start flowing it will have a place to go for the time being.

Ahh. Rainy season came a bit earlier this year. At least you got the digging done.

[MossMan]

Happy Thursday!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This sort of thing keeps coming up because you foothills babies can’t seem to accept average or even slightly below average rainfall...

 

Record dry or cry!

 

Don't lump me in with them. Part of the draw of the hills to me is the 75-80" in annual precip. Even in 2013, one of the driest years on record, we had 53". 

[Omegaraptor]

 

North Bend forecast. Literally Ketchikan.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I think the fact that the upcoming trough won’t deliver snow to the lowlands has more to do with the time of year than the mountains. Not like the Cascades go away once we hit November.

 

It has to do with both factors. If there weren't mountains blocking most of the cold air, it would likely be able to get as cold as Montana here during the coming storm. Remember, the winter storms that drop temps into the teens and twenties here drop it to -20F or colder in Montana.

[Jesse]

Don't lump me in with them. Part of the draw of the hills to me is the 75-80" in annual precip. Even in 2013, one of the driest years on record, we had 53".

You are a different breed, Andrew.

[Omegaraptor]

Don't lump me in with them. Part of the draw of the hills to me is the 75-80" in annual precip. Even in 2013, one of the driest years on record, we had 53".

 

I’m jealous. Our dry years (for example, 2018) are under 30”.

[TT-SEA]

This sort of thing keeps coming up because you foothills babies can’t seem to accept average or even slightly below average rainfall...

 

Record dry or cry!

 

 

Strawman building!!  

 

I always compare to my local average in my assessment of the overall weather here.  

 

Normal number of days with rain here:

 

July - 6 days

August - 7 days

September - 10 days

 

This year:

 

July - 13 days

August - 12 days

September - 17 days (so far)

 

 

Its been unusually persistently wet since July 1st.... compared to normal for this foothill location.   There has been 19 more days with rain than normal here in that period.

 

Regardless of what happened before... its been wet recently compared to what normally happens in JAS.

[TT-SEA]

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North Bend forecast. Literally Ketchikan.

 

 

You often do this at the end of a very wet period.    Its silly.

 

Its finally going to dry out... did I say next week was going to be very wet?    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[GHweatherChris]

Goal posts!

[Jesse]

Goal posts!

 

Keep the sports talk to the banter thread.

[TT-SEA]

Have I complained or cried at all...Nope. Nothing touches your meltdowns over the last few years!

 

 

Its all strawman building.    If we mention that its been wet when its actually been wet then we are attacked by the usual suspects.   And those people all crave the wet and dark... they must secretly want to be back in the womb. 

[GHweatherChris]

Keep the sports talk to the banter thread.

Sun is out here.

[Jesse]

There's a pretty interesting system for late September moving in today and tomorrow. A lot of early season (and monthly) cold and snowfall records could fall. Oh and it will dry out for a bit too. Can't we all just get along guys!