Requiem Posted September 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 18Z GFS is nice... glad I broke my rule and checked it out. Very little rain for the next 12+ days after tomorrow. I'd prefer, ya know, wetter, but that's okay too I guess. EDIT: I looked at it, and it's as bleh as I'd imagined! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 66 and mostly sunny here... ended up with a lovely afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 The background state from April - June was more ridgy than not. Which helps explain why it was so dry. phyllus.pngI forecasted May-Sep. The same “background” tropical forcing structure will teleconnect differently to the mid-latitude wavetrain in April vs the summer months..you have to be careful with the timeframe you use. April-June makes little dynamic sense if you’re looking to run any sort of seasonally-independent correlations for analogs. I never make forecasts for that trimonthly period since it’s almost always transitional even w/ unchanging forcing on the low pass. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 I hate when storms impact the Sunday morning commuteI commute 45-50 mins to work. Fortunately my church commute is less than 5 mins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 He’s trolling a little. Would probably be the first to admit it. Although I can definitely see the draw to trolling Flatiron’s tendency to overplay recent or incoming airmasses.I’m curious to see how this plays out down here. Feels like we’ve played with these early season continental airmasses before. And the results often end up milder than people might expect, at least up this way. Some 70/45 type weather with a NNE wind on Saturday wouldn’t be too surprising in SW BC. Then we’ll see who escapes the wind on Sunday/Monday as too who sees any possible frosts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 Yeah, an Arctic airmass filtered into WA on the 6th and got hung up just south of Portland. Like Dewey said, a warm front swung in and a baroclinic band intensified along the OR/WA border on the 7th and persisted through the 8th and 9th. There was an incredible gradient across the Portland metro where the upper level boundary stalled. Everyone in the metro area west of the West Hills and south of about Stark Street had just a few inches of snow but got a major ice storm with 1-2" of freezing rain. Portland was the transition zone and everywhere east of I-205 or north of the Columbia had about 48 hours straight of heavy snow. There were 20-30" totals throughout Vancouver and Gresham, and outlying areas like Ridgefield had about 3 feet over the three days. The gorge was absolutely paralyzed with 71.5" in 3 days at Hood River. Interestingly that storm also peaked 100 years to the day after the 1880 craziness.I didn't know that storm dumped that much snow out here on the east side. Wish I was alive to experience it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 Calgary could see a sub freezing high on Saturday. I don’t believe they have recorded that in September before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 Wasn’t very much sun here today. 64/58 0.11” of rain. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 Pretty impressive to see a Winter storm Watch for north east Wa. Earliest I've ever saw.You had a fair bit of snow at your cabin last September didn’t you. I seem to remember you posting pics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 PDX is the driest place in the Portland metro, isn’t it? They record about 36”/year. Tualatin Valley is the next driest place in the metro.Here's a map Mark posted a few years ago showing average annual rainfall around the area. 1. The driest parts of the metro area are in the lowest elevations in the Tualatin Valley and along the Columbia River from Vancouver Lake to NE Portland. That includes the Hillsboro, Portland, and Vancouver airports. These areas typically average less than 38″ of rain each year. Another dry spot, although not quite as dry, is the northern Willamette Valley south of Wilsonville. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/09/06/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 I changed it. Happy now?I don't care, just want consistent forum moderation. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 26, 2019 Report Share Posted September 26, 2019 I’m curious to see how this plays out down here. Feels like we’ve played with these early season continental airmasses before. And the results often end up milder than people might expect, at least up this way. Some 70/45 type weather with a NNE wind on Saturday wouldn’t be too surprising in SW BC. Then we’ll see who escapes the wind on Sunday/Monday as too who sees any possible frosts.I don't think we've seen many early season blocking setups like this recently. But maybe that's just my recent/anti-recent bias talking! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 I don't care, just want consistent forum moderation.Karma’s a b*tch. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 I don't think we've seen many early season blocking setups like this recently. But maybe that's just my recent/anti-recent bias talking!Not recently, no. But the 1960s were loaded with them. And the 1950s to some extent as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Karma’s a b*tch.Just ask Kevin Martin. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Lorenzo is a Cat4 hurricane in the E-ATL MDR. Amazing how quickly we’ve bulldozed through the alphabet lately. Seems the return of strong Atlantic hurricanes has also coincided with some cooler (or less death ridgy) PNW autumn patterns in recent years. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Talk about a huge disconnect between the tropical/seasonal background system state and the subseasonal/ET-M AAM gradient. This should resolve in time but still..lol. The low pass tropical forcing structure is analogous to that of a healthy El Niño right now, in many ways: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 We're secretly in a super Nino right now and the government just doesn't want to admit it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 The atmosphere fell for last winter's head fake so hard, it still thinks we have a Nino. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Arctic Blast!https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/09/arctic-express-coming-to-northwest.html?m=1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Arctic Blast!https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/09/arctic-express-coming-to-northwest.html?m=1I think this comment speaks for all of us. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 I’m curious to see how this plays out down here. Feels like we’ve played with these early season continental airmasses before. And the results often end up milder than people might expect, at least up this way. Some 70/45 type weather with a NNE wind on Saturday wouldn’t be too surprising in SW BC. Then we’ll see who escapes the wind on Sunday/Monday as too who sees any possible frosts.Yeah, it seems like you often report relatively balmy conditions when it’s cold down here. This airmass looks to affect the area more equally than some of the recent back door cold shots from the east that have favored the Portland area and Oregon overall, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Arctic outbreak. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Officially .64” on the day. 5.24” for the month. 56 degrees currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Arctic expresso. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 jaya Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Annoying drizzle at the moment. I'm not a fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Annoying drizzle at the moment. I'm not a fan.Jesse will be with you shortly. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Looks like we ended up hitting 66 today with some late afternoon sunbreaks. Ended up being a pretty afternoon with the sun and collection of low and high clouds moving in. Even spotted a pretty distinct sundog in the Winco parking lot! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Meteorological fall started 25 days ago, not 26 days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Meteorological fall started 25 days ago, not 26 days ago. Grizzly Adams had a beard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Looking forward to a pattern change and some chilly fall air to arrive. Should deliver the coolest high temps since May and maybe the coldest overnight lows since late April. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Grizzly Adams had a beard.Grizzly Adams DID have a beard! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Hoping I get frost in the next week. Not looking good now, the high desert seems to have lost its muster. If I get below 50 I’ll be happy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Grizzly Adams DID have a beard! Glad someone got the sports reference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Anyone seen my lite brite? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2019 Report Share Posted September 27, 2019 Anyone seen my lite brite?Yes. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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